Mississippi Megathread 2023

[gespb19]

Maybe too early for this, but these are some county-by-county benchmarks I'd like to see to feel that Presley is on-track for a majority win.

Hinds 81/18
Harrison 57/40
Madison 52/46
Rankin 60/39
DeSoto 54/45
Lee 54/44
Oktibbeha 59/37
Lowndes 52/47
Lafayette 55/44
Forrest 50/49
Washington 73/25

I think he needs to win Lee. I'm not going to feel great about it if he doesn't. There's a combination of college-educated professionals, non-neglible BVAP, Presley friends-and-neighbors, and ancestral rural Dems there. Certainly you would know that area better than me, but I'm having a hard time seeing Presley win if he doesn't carry Lee.

[gespb19]

Reeves won Lafayette. That'll do it.

[gespb19]

Limited precinct returns we have indicate Presley doing worse with college-educated voters than Hood did.

[gespb19]

Limited precinct returns we have indicate Presley doing worse with college-educated voters than Hood did.

Selection bias.  Presley did worse than Hood across Metro Jackson and (weirdly?) Oxford.  What about college-educated precincts on the Coast, Hattiesburg, DeSoto, Tupelo, etc.

Those counties haven't posted precinct results yet. That's why I said "limited."