MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

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Reeves vs. McDaniel vs. Presley in the special.

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If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

There would be a runoff right?

If no one gets over 50%, yes.

However, I just realized that the fact that this is a nonpartisan special election changes the dynamic drastically.  That means if the Dems run a semi-decent candidate they’re almost guaranteed a runoff spot due to the high floor provided by Black voters.  The top Republican after him would most likely get the other spot, with almost no possibility for an R vs R runoff.

In this case a Presley vs McDaniel general is almost a certainty should both of these candidates run.  In this case, Bryant’s best move might be to appoint someone like Harper in an attempt to hold the seat (assuming that Bryant is completely opposed to the idea of a Senator McDaniel, which I’m not certain of).

Heard Reeves might be appointed. Could be a Reeves/Presley/McDaniel race with maybe 1-2 other people that run but won’t have a chance.

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Anyone following this guy's feed? Johns Hopkins PhD candidate (originally from MS) convinced we're headed for an Espy/McDaniel runoff based on Google trends, GOTV, and enthusiasm.

https://twitter.com/Yoknapatawpha86/status/1052768200344199169

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My projection for tomorrow: Espy 37, Hyde-Smith 35, McDaniel 25, Bartee/write-in 3



dark red: Espy 50%+
red: Espy 40-50%
light red: Espy under 40%

dark blue: Hyde-Smith 50%+
blue: Hyde-Smith 40-50%
light blue: Hyde-Smith under 40%

dark orange/brown: McDaniel 50%+
orange/brown: McDaniel 40-50%
light orange/brown: McDaniel under 40%

Best counties for each candidate

Espy: 1) Jefferson, 2) Claiborne, 3) Holmes
Hyde-Smith: 1) Lincoln, 2) Itawamba, 3) Tishomingo
McDaniel: 1) Jones, 2) George, 3) Pearl River

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I'm assuming she's making a joke about Ole Miss and not actually referring to the black colleges ... but that's dumb because Ole Miss and Lafayette County are a lot more right-wing than Mississippi State and Oktibbeha, so who knows.

That's not true (and I'm far from an Ole Miss homer).

The only reason Oktibbeha's Dem numbers are better than Lafayette's is because Oktibbeha's AA % is quite a bit higher than Lafayette's.

I'd venture to say Starkville and Oxford (and Hattiesburg, for that matter) whites support Dems at about the same clip. Something like 25%.  

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how does De soto county vote this year?
suburban memphis.
Obviously it stays republican but im asking margin?
Im making a bold prediction that it votes the same margin as statewide.

DeSoto County is new money GOP. It's basically people that A) used to live in Memphis but saw a black person next door and decided to move to Olive Branch or Southaven or B) couldn't afford some Memphis expensive private school like MUS or LCS so they have to send their kids to public school and they move to DeSoto

In a close election, it may be a little closer than it usually is, but Espy will not win it.

Espy's only hope is that there is huge black turnout and enough old money lawyer/doctor whites in Jackson, Meridian, Hattiesburg, Gulf Coast pull the lever for him.

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how does De soto county vote this year?
suburban memphis.
Obviously it stays republican but im asking margin?
Im making a bold prediction that it votes the same margin as statewide.

Why in the world would you think that? Desoto isn't where the small pockets of white #NeverTrumpers live. Desoto is Memphis's equivalent of Jackson's Rankin County.

Nothing that Cindy has said since 11/6 is going to make any of her or Mcdaniel's voters flip to Espy outside of maybe a few hundred rich Northeast Jacksoners who send their kids to St. Andrew's.

Espy's coalition is Jackson/Delta AAs, JA bleacher dads, and St. Andrew's soccer moms. What a time to be alive.

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And the hits just keep on coming for good ole Cindy:

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2018/nov/23/hyde-smith-attended-all-white-seg-academy-avoid-in/

In before someone says again how this will "help" her with MS voters.

Almost every white Mississippian, except for some in Madison, Rankin, DeSoto, Lee, the Coast, and the college towns goes to an all- or almost-all-white segregation academy. I'm not even exaggerating - that's just how it is. Except for the few places that have good public schools, all white people, even the poor, pay for private schools.

This isn't going to "help" her, but no one's going to care. I never thought about it, but of course she and her family went to private school. She's from Brookhaven.

There are many rural integrated schools.

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And the hits just keep on coming for good ole Cindy:

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2018/nov/23/hyde-smith-attended-all-white-seg-academy-avoid-in/

In before someone says again how this will "help" her with MS voters.

Almost every white Mississippian, except for some in Madison, Rankin, DeSoto, Lee, the Coast, and the college towns goes to an all- or almost-all-white segregation academy. I'm not even exaggerating - that's just how it is. Except for the few places that have good public schools, all white people, even the poor, pay for private schools.

This isn't going to "help" her, but no one's going to care. I never thought about it, but of course she and her family went to private school. She's from Brookhaven.

There are many rural integrated schools.

Yeah, there are some in the parts of the state (mostly Northeastern) where there isn't a high enough black population to warrant the creation of segregationist academies. I shouldn't have painted with quite as broad of a stroke.

I was hoping to find a map of all of them somewhere, but this is the best I could do:

https://newsite.msais.org/pdfs/aac-all-other-sports-alignment.pdf

At first, I was surprised by the relative lack of private schools on the Coast, but then I remembered that Catholic schools have existed down there since the pre-integration era and have functioned as de facto segregation academies.  Catholic schools compete in different athletic conferences than the newer, nonsectarian segregation academies so they're not on Harry's map.

It's also interesting to note the lack of a private school in Oxford.  However, Oxford/Lafayette County schools have refused to consolidate for quite some time and have become de facto segregated.  High property values within the city limits keep the public schools there relatively White and high-performing, whereas poor and Black students are regulated to the poor-performing Lafayette County schools.  This is essentially the "northern" model of school segregation that exists everywhere in the country. This was also the case in Starkville prior to 2015, when the Starkville schools and Oktibbeha County schools were consolidated by the state legislature.

Oxford schools are less white than Lafayette schools.

http://newreports.mdek12.org