Probably Hobbs, but I think people are exaggerating how "easily" winnable AZ is for the supposedly "right" Republican and how much 2022 had to do with "candidate quality" (as opposed to the state continuing to trend away from Republicans at a faster-than-expected pace).
The thing is though AZ doesn't really have the type of demographic trends that honestly favor either party. Its not a GA that has a huge boom of new black residents. It attracts both dissatisfied right leaning Californian's and some left leaning ones. Overall the state has a very "moderate" "libertarian" feel to it, so one would think a more normal republican should be the favorite. I'm not saying winning it like they did 10 years ago, but at least be a slight favorite.
Is there any data on the political leanings of those newcomers, though? I’d be very surprised if the split was even close to 50/50.
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