Rate Minnesota

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt/Lean D. I don’t see why it would be harder for the GOP to form a path to victory in MN than in VA, and I think the 2020 results have led people to overstate the state's Democratic lean even in very Republican years. I’m not saying that Walz will lose, but I don’t buy this race being a blowout on a night when Republicans are flipping governorships in WI, MI, PA, ME, etc. and are competitive in places like NH (for federal office). The good thing for Walz is that he doesn’t need that much crossover appeal to win, hasn’t been nearly as aggressive on COVID as other Democratic governors, and is running in a state with (still, even if to a lesser extent than a decade ago) one of the most effective D state parties in the nation.

I will say that the so-called "Universal Law Of Minnesota Elections" was applied in exactly the same way to AZ, but with the parties reversed and Democrats supposedly having a "ceiling" of 45% in that state — we know how that one turned out. Walz will probably win, but it’s foolish to suggest that an open seat (or a Senate race with a D incumbent like Tina Smith, for instance) wouldn’t have been extremely winnable for the GOP in 2022.