Which Governor up for re-election between now & 2022 do you think is most vulnerable to defeat?

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously no incumbent™ will be voted out unless they’re being challenged by a "great candidate" (and I have decided that their opponent actually qualifies as a "great candidate"), no matter how unpopular they are or how partisan their electorate is. /s

This far out, I see five glaringly vulnerable incumbents, but I’m not entirely sure about the order in which those states would flip. These things have a habit of defying conventional wisdom, so all I’m doing is hazarding an extremely early guess:

1) Laura Kelly (D-KS) - The state is inching toward Democrats, but the emphasis should be placed on 'inching' here. 2020 was a disappointment across the board for KS Democrats, and polling has understated R strength rather significantly in neutral-ish/R-friendly years here (2014, 2016, 2020). I also disagree with the assumption that Orman took more votes away from Kelly than Kobach in 2018. Either way, there’s no shortage of competent Republicans in this state, and Kelly's crossover appeal strikes me as a prime example of "a mile wide and an inch deep." She could win and there’s still a lot of uncertainty as to the range of realistic outcomes, but the environment and partisan lean of the state will make it tough against a non-Kobach candidate. Lean R.

2) Brian Kemp (R-GA) - Kemp is more conservative in rhetoric than actual policy, but unfortunately for him, he’ll need to placate a heavily Democratic-leaning suburban electorate and a disgruntled GOP base while navigating one of the most pronounced and consistent anti-R state trends in the nation (which is very unlikely to come to a halt during the Biden presidency). This is a state that just voted out its incumbent Senator to give Biden a D trifecta, so acting like the same voters will want a check on Democrats because it’s a 'Biden midterm' seems like a very unconvincing theory to me. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Kemp underperformed the R nominee for Senate. Lean D.

3) Tony Evers (D-WI) - It’s a 'polarized' state in which Democrats/Evers benefited immensely from DEM/GOP turnout differentials and the wave environment in 2018. The only reason Evers has more breathing room than Kelly is because of the high D floor provided by the Madison/Milwaukee metros, the fact that erosion of GOP support in the WOW counties is slowly turning into a permanent trend, and the overrated but somewhat plausible scenario of R turnout lagging behind D turnout, which is arguably more likely to come true in the Upper Midwest than in some of the other battleground states. Kelly may be more popular than Evers right now, but I expect fundamentals to win out in the end and Kelly to experience a serious drop in her approval/favorability numbers over the course of the campaign. Tilt R.

4) Steve Sisolak (D-NV) - This was an extremely tough choice between Sisolak and Whitmer, but I went with Sisolak for #4 (I could easily see Whitmer losing before him, though). The COVID response is one thing, but Sisolak's bigger problem is being a generic liberal D with virtually no crossover appeal in a state that’s more R than the nation and where Republicans have fared a lot better in midterms than in presidential years. His 2018 victory can be attributed almost exclusively to the environment/D ground game, and that’s not the most reassuring foundation of a reelection campaign going into a R-leaning midterm. I don’t buy the "Titanium Tilt D Nevada" theory, and I’m not one dismiss the state's R trend since 2010 as a fluke (you can acknowledge some unique circumstances of the 2020 election which might have benefited Republicans in NV more so than in any other state without outright denying the obvious). Pure Toss-up.

5) Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) - This race has been discussed extensively, so I don’t have much more to add other than that I don’t see Whitmer's incumbency being much of an advantage for Democrats here. This will probably track the PA race pretty closely, and I expect Whitmer to underperform her pre-election polling even without Trump on the ballot and even if Democrats aren’t having that bad of a night. Pure Toss-up.

I could see every single one of these governors losing even if pre-election polling shows them ahead (and I expect at least two of them to lose even though most pundits and Talk Elections posters had rated them as slight or modest favorites).