Which Governor up for re-election between now & 2022 do you think is most vulnerable to defeat?

[brucejoel99]

And why?

[NewYorkExpress]

Laura Kelly.

She got really lucky in 2018 that she was facing Kris Kobach. If she faces even a slightly more rational opponent, she loses.

[Los Angeles Swag Boss]

Kelly is a good general option, but I think Sisolak’s handling of COVID will be tough to defend.

Close two for me there.

[Real Texan Politics]

I'd say Kemp is the most, but I'll explain some others:

• Gavin Newsom - covid response; recall effort; may be more at risk to get primaried than to lose a general election (this is still California and it's not 2003)
• Ron DeSantis - covid response mostly (vaccines may or may not be a saving grace); whistleblower raid (may be forgotten about until the attack ads come in); Florida's a vulnerable state overall
• Brian Kemp - Trump/Qanon supporters hate his guts; potential primary challenge from Doug Collins or someone else; Stacey Abrams seems to be religiously popular with Georgia democrats; possibility of ultra high voter turnout; and do I need to mention the Atlanta trends?
• Kim Reynolds - extremely unpopular; and would Iowa still be considered a swing state on the state and local levels?
• Laura Kelly - democrat governor in a ruby red state; depends on the GOP nominee
• Gretchen Whitmer - not extremely vulnerable but her highly strict covid response could result in some decent opposition turnout
• Steve Sisolak - covid response; Nevada's still a swing state
• Andrew Cuomo - nursing home scandal, though this may hurt him more in the primaries than in the general. This is still New York after all.
• Mike DeWine - hardcore republicans (especially Trump supporters) don't seem to like him that much due to his strict covid response
• Kristi Noem - covid response; also seems to be pretty unpopular
• Greg Abbott - winter storm/power crisis; covid response; democratic trends; still not as vulnerable as Cruz after Cancungate
• Tony Evers - swing state; also how's his covid response approved of?

[Sir Mohamed]

Tony Evers. Modest approvals in a pure tossup state. I think Laura Kelly will survive or at least has a good chance to do so.

On the GOP side, Kemp is vulnerable both in the primary and GE.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSANTIS WILL LOSE TO CHARKIE CRIST AND HE SAID HE ALL IN NEXT YEAR, DeSantis almost lost to Gillam due to fact he has low approvals among AA

If Stacy Abrams runs against Kemp he is done

[Suburbia]

Kemp and Evers

[Frenchrepublican]

The three most vulnerable governors are :

1. Kemp who is in danger to lose the primary and if he survives the primary he who would likely lose the general election

2. Evers who is not that popular and who could be defeated by the climate

3. Kelly who will have to battle her state lean in a likely difficult climate

[smoltchanov]

The three most vulnerable governors are :

1. Kemp who is in danger to lose the primary and if he survives the primary he who would likely lose the general election

2. Evers who is not that popular and who could be defeated by the climate

3. Kelly who will have to battle her state lean in a likely difficult climate

By far - my choices too...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis will lose, Trump only won by 300K votes like Johnson did in 2016, he didn't win by 3M, despite the fact Trump is from FL.

Miami isn't voting 10 pts for a D, that won't happen with Crist as our nominee

[Real Texan Politics]

DeSantis will lose, Trump only won by 300K votes like Johnson did in 2016, he didn't win by 3M, despite the fact Trump is from FL.

Miami isn't voting 10 pts for a D, that won't happen with Crist as our nominee

Ok we get it.

[Bootes Void]

I actually think Kemp will hold on by a decent amount regardless of the nominee. A few governors that could be vulnerable is Lamont, Sisolak(maybe on the economy in 2022), Kelly( how open republicans are to voting for a democrat) and DeWine( more likely in the primary tbh)

[TarHeelDem]

Kemp, obviously. He's already the underdog in both the primary and general. You can't say that about any other sitting governor.

[kwabbit]

Another question is which governors are most vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Newsom and Cuomo are both declining in popularity. They are governors of very blue states, but few voters are enthusiastic about them at this point. Cuomo has gotten repeated left-wing challenges and I have to imagine his strongest challenge yet will be coming in 2022. I imagine the NYC suburbs will still go for him, but a progressive could achieve victory through a strong performance in Upstate NY, which is very tired of Cuomo at this point, and in some of the NYC boroughs that have growing progressive activism.

Cuomo only won Manhattan by 12% over Nixon, this might be the first borough to flip.

He won Brooklyn by 22%, but this could be a big swing towards the progressive challenger. While I'm not sure how many Orthodox Jews are registered Dem (I know they often vote for Democrats they favor, so they may be Democrats to influence NYC politics more), they are livid with Cuomo over COVID regulations. This combined with the growing hipster political power may be enough for the challenger to win Brooklyn.

[SnowLabrador]

Laura Kelly. I think she loses unless her opponent is Kris Kobach again, which seems unlikely.

[CookieDamage]

- Laura Kelly: Dem Gov in a very Republican state, even though Kansas is inching towards the Dems.

- Tony Evers: Dem Gov in a very divided state which barely went for Biden. It'll be a Biden midterm and we've seen govs in much bluer states lose to republicans during a Dem midterm.

- Brian Kemp: Unpopular GOP gov in a state zooming left. He's tied to an unpopular ex-president who tried to meddle in Georgia's elections, and he could be facing Stacey Abrams. Still, it's a Biden midterm.

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously no incumbent™ will be voted out unless they’re being challenged by a "great candidate" (and I have decided that their opponent actually qualifies as a "great candidate"), no matter how unpopular they are or how partisan their electorate is. /s

This far out, I see five glaringly vulnerable incumbents, but I’m not entirely sure about the order in which those states would flip. These things have a habit of defying conventional wisdom, so all I’m doing is hazarding an extremely early guess:

1) Laura Kelly (D-KS) - The state is inching toward Democrats, but the emphasis should be placed on 'inching' here. 2020 was a disappointment across the board for KS Democrats, and polling has understated R strength rather significantly in neutral-ish/R-friendly years here (2014, 2016, 2020). I also disagree with the assumption that Orman took more votes away from Kelly than Kobach in 2018. Either way, there’s no shortage of competent Republicans in this state, and Kelly's crossover appeal strikes me as a prime example of "a mile wide and an inch deep." She could win and there’s still a lot of uncertainty as to the range of realistic outcomes, but the environment and partisan lean of the state will make it tough against a non-Kobach candidate. Lean R.

2) Brian Kemp (R-GA) - Kemp is more conservative in rhetoric than actual policy, but unfortunately for him, he’ll need to placate a heavily Democratic-leaning suburban electorate and a disgruntled GOP base while navigating one of the most pronounced and consistent anti-R state trends in the nation (which is very unlikely to come to a halt during the Biden presidency). This is a state that just voted out its incumbent Senator to give Biden a D trifecta, so acting like the same voters will want a check on Democrats because it’s a 'Biden midterm' seems like a very unconvincing theory to me. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Kemp underperformed the R nominee for Senate. Lean D.

3) Tony Evers (D-WI) - It’s a 'polarized' state in which Democrats/Evers benefited immensely from DEM/GOP turnout differentials and the wave environment in 2018. The only reason Evers has more breathing room than Kelly is because of the high D floor provided by the Madison/Milwaukee metros, the fact that erosion of GOP support in the WOW counties is slowly turning into a permanent trend, and the overrated but somewhat plausible scenario of R turnout lagging behind D turnout, which is arguably more likely to come true in the Upper Midwest than in some of the other battleground states. Kelly may be more popular than Evers right now, but I expect fundamentals to win out in the end and Kelly to experience a serious drop in her approval/favorability numbers over the course of the campaign. Tilt R.

4) Steve Sisolak (D-NV) - This was an extremely tough choice between Sisolak and Whitmer, but I went with Sisolak for #4 (I could easily see Whitmer losing before him, though). The COVID response is one thing, but Sisolak's bigger problem is being a generic liberal D with virtually no crossover appeal in a state that’s more R than the nation and where Republicans have fared a lot better in midterms than in presidential years. His 2018 victory can be attributed almost exclusively to the environment/D ground game, and that’s not the most reassuring foundation of a reelection campaign going into a R-leaning midterm. I don’t buy the "Titanium Tilt D Nevada" theory, and I’m not one dismiss the state's R trend since 2010 as a fluke (you can acknowledge some unique circumstances of the 2020 election which might have benefited Republicans in NV more so than in any other state without outright denying the obvious). Pure Toss-up.

5) Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) - This race has been discussed extensively, so I don’t have much more to add other than that I don’t see Whitmer's incumbency being much of an advantage for Democrats here. This will probably track the PA race pretty closely, and I expect Whitmer to underperform her pre-election polling even without Trump on the ballot and even if Democrats aren’t having that bad of a night. Pure Toss-up.

I could see every single one of these governors losing even if pre-election polling shows them ahead (and I expect at least two of them to lose even though most pundits and Talk Elections posters had rated them as slight or modest favorites).

[coloradocowboi]

Brian Kemp, for sure, because he will likely be the only candidate to face both a competitive primary and GE.

Some honorable mentions:

Laura Kelly for the Ds in the GE. Overcoming likely high GOP turnout in a Biden midterm will be hard here. Unlike some people, I hardly think she's doomed. But she is probably an underdog.

Greg Abbott for the Rs in the GE. He's still favored, but is governing like he is governor of Tennessee, not Texas. He probably arrogantly thinks he will cruise in 22, and then can run for Prez. However, he is going to be dealing with a much more hostile electorate than he thinks in the midterm. The kind of educated, suburban, wealthy voters who are most likely to turn out are trending away from the GOP in Texas, while many working class types who turned out for Trump in places like the panhandle and RGV are certainly far from certain to turn out without him on the ballot. If he isn't careful, the right Dem candidate could catch him off guard.

Andrew Cuomo in the primary for Ds. I don't care about opinion polls with inconclusive answers just a few days into a scandal that's obviously going to get much worse for him. The more the media turns on him, the more likely a challenger from his left might be able to sneak past him. The question is who?

Mike DeWine in the primary for Rs. I don't think he will be vulnerable if he makes it through the primary, and might even be able to win moderates by virtue of juxtaposition against some crazy. But he will surely be targeted more than maybe any incumbent beside Kemp in the primary.

[Coldstream]

It’d be pretty personally humiliating for Trump if Kemp wins re-election, so I’m sure he’ll do all he can to stop him. So for that reason I’d say Kemp is the least likely to still be Governor come 2023.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

1. Whitmer- Of the swing state Governors, I feel like Whitmer is the most polarizing. The people who dislike her REALLY dislike her. And in a midterm, that's hugely beneficial to either side, because those people are likely to turn out. The ones I worry about the most are Meijer and James
2. Kemp
3. Evers- He better hope there are no more protests + arsons, if there are, he moves up to #1. But I feel Whitmer has more fiery haters then Evers
4. Sisolak- Lockdowns, that tech corporation bill and just the overall environment. And no NV is not a #TITANIUMDSTATE
5. Lujan-Grisham- I swear to god, if Ronchetti runs and campaigns against the lockdowns he will win.
6. Kelly- I actually think Kelly is in a good position for re-election, as long as her approval ratings are good. Because she has a d next to her name it will be single digits though.
7. Mills- Mills would be in real danger. But the GOP is running Trump Lite LePage so she should be ok.
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[Calthrina950]

1. Whitmer- Of the swing state Governors, I feel like Whitmer is the most polarizing. The people who dislike her REALLY dislike her. And in a midterm, that's hugely beneficial to either side, because those people are likely to turn out. The ones I worry about the most are Meijer and James
2. Kemp
3. Evers- He better hope there are no more protests + arsons, if there are, he moves up to #1. But I feel Whitmer has more fiery haters then Evers
4. Sisolak- Lockdowns, that tech corporation bill and just the overall environment. And no NV is not a #TITANIUMDSTATE
5. Lujan-Grisham- I swear to god, if Ronchetti runs and campaigns against the lockdowns he will win.
6. Kelly- I actually think Kelly is in a good position for re-election, as long as her approval ratings are good. Because she has a d next to her name it will be single digits though.
7. Mills- Mills would be in real danger. But the GOP is running Trump Lite LePage so she should be ok.
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Lujan-Grisham got caught using state discretionary funds to cover food and other expenses at the Governor's Mansion last week, in a manner that has been viewed by many as improper. This isn't the first time she's been caught being hypocritical with regards to the pandemic; she was busted for obtaining jewelry from a shop that was closed to the rest of the public last year. She's also had one of the harshest coronavirus responses of any Governor, as you alluded to, and has generally suffered from poor approvals throughout her term. I could certainly see her as a upset loss for Democrats next year.

[If my soul was made of stone]

I think that the quirks of Kansas politics and the state's trends can produce another Kelly term, albeit not by that strong a margin. I'm torn between Kemp and Evers, but voted the latter because of his constant headbutting with the deep-red state legislature and courts, and just the absolutely demolished state of the executive branch of Wisconsin.

Scott Walker and his consequences have been a disaster for the cheese-head race.

[One Term Floridian]

Laura Kelly for state partisanship and Brian Kemp for trends/GA GOP infighting reasons

[ElectionsGuy]

As far as party switches, probably Kansas, but Brian Kemp is the single most vulnerable incumbent.

[Frenchrepublican]

Brian Kemp, for sure, because he will likely be the only candidate to face both a competitive primary and GE.

Some honorable mentions:

Laura Kelly for the Ds in the GE. Overcoming likely high GOP turnout in a Biden midterm will be hard here. Unlike some people, I hardly think she's doomed. But she is probably an underdog.

Greg Abbott for the Rs in the GE. He's still favored, but is governing like he is governor of Tennessee, not Texas. He probably arrogantly thinks he will cruise in 22, and then can run for Prez. However, he is going to be dealing with a much more hostile electorate than he thinks in the midterm. The kind of educated, suburban, wealthy voters who are most likely to turn out are trending away from the GOP in Texas, while many working class types who turned out for Trump in places like the panhandle and RGV are certainly far from certain to turn out without him on the ballot. If he isn't careful, the right Dem candidate could catch him off guard.

Andrew Cuomo in the primary for Ds. I don't care about opinion polls with inconclusive answers just a few days into a scandal that's obviously going to get much worse for him. The more the media turns on him, the more likely a challenger from his left might be able to sneak past him. The question is who?

Mike DeWine in the primary for Rs. I don't think he will be vulnerable if he makes it through the primary, and might even be able to win moderates by virtue of juxtaposition against some crazy. But he will surely be targeted more than maybe any incumbent beside Kemp in the primary.

Sure Jan

Texas is still a R+10 to R+13 state, yeah it has trended to the left between 2012 and 2018, yeah Texas is unlikely to vote again like it did during the Bush era, yeah democrats have now a relatively high floor of 42% or 43%, now once we have said that it is still a very red state. If everything goes well for dems they could eventually come close to flip the AG office, assuming Paxton doesn't retire / he is not defeated in the primary, but they have no chance against Abbott, Abbott has a double digits positive approval rate and was the top vote getter in 2018, he will likely win reelection by 14 points or something like that.

Also democrats should really stop with this idea that republican voters only care about Trump and won't vote when he is not on the ballot, it is absurd, yeah some 2020 GOP voters are not going to vote next year, but democrats have also a large swath of low propensity voters, so no, the electorate won't be much more dem friendly than in 2020.