How many points would Biden have to win the PV by for you to be confident that he won?

[MT Treasurer]

5 for me to feel absolutely confident. That’s not to say that he couldn’t win with a 4- or maybe 3-point lead in the PV, but the thing is that Trump is either going to lose a lot of ground (TX/CA) or make no inroads/do slightly worse than in 2016 (IL/NY/NJ/FL) in the most populous states even if he wins reelection, which will make no difference whatsoever in the EC. I think TX will be quite close (and Trump’s definitely not winning TX by more than Cruz if CA is Biden +38), but if I had to guess Trump narrowly holds on to it (if he doesn’t, this whole exercise is moot). Another issue for Biden is that most of the potential tipping-point states probably all require the same popular vote margin to flip (especially PA/FL/GA/MI—I’m not sure I buy AZ/WI being in that group), so there’s probably not much room for an uneven distribution of outcomes here which might benefit Democrats. In other words, as soon as Biden crosses the finish line (Biden +3.5? +4?), you’ll see a lot of states fall simultaneously, but he needs to cross it for it to actually matter.

Obviously this whole EC advantage is maybe sustainable for one more cycle but with the way TX/GA/AZ/NC are trending not much longer than that.