How many points would Biden have to win the PV by for you to be confident that he won?

[Barack Oganja]

If Biden wins the PV by __ points he'll win the general election

[here2view]

4. If it's anything less than 3 he loses.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

At least 3 points, though I'd be more confident if it was a 4+ victory.

[brucejoel99]

At least 3 points, though I'd be more confident if it was a 4+ victory.

[President Johnson]

At least three, better four. Five points would be a safe bet.

[Podgy the Bear]

4

2 points: He will lose WI plus MI and/or PA.
3 points: Will probably lose WI but might pull out AZ.    Will be tough.
4 points: Will win all four states and may squeak by in FL.

[ProudModerate2]

At least 3 points, though I'd be more confident if it was a 4+ victory.

[BlueSwan]

Voted 5 points, because it takes a lot for me to be confident in a win.

Realistically, I think Biden is a better fit for the rust belt than Hillary was, so I don't think his EC disadvantage is necessarily as big as hers.

[Gracile]

3.5 points would probably be a thin EC victory.

[SnowLabrador]

I think it'd take at least 5-6.

[😥]

At least 3 points, though I'd be more confident if it was a 4+ victory.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

5. Texas and California are going to swing big against Trump and that needs to factor into that

[SN2903]

4 maybe even 4.5 which won't happen. Most Biden wins the PV by is 1.5. He is an awful candidate.

[brucejoel99]

4 maybe even 4.5 which won't happen. Most Biden wins the PV by is 1.5. He is an awful candidate.

No.

[SN2903]

4 maybe even 4.5 which won't happen. Most Biden wins the PV by is 1.5. He is an awful candidate.

No.

Yes. Biden will struggle to beat HRC's EV total in 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Like others, I think 4 is the minimum to feel good about it.  3 could go either way in the EC depending on how it's distributed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

3 points

[MT Treasurer]

5 for me to feel absolutely confident. That’s not to say that he couldn’t win with a 4- or maybe 3-point lead in the PV, but the thing is that Trump is either going to lose a lot of ground (TX/CA) or make no inroads/do slightly worse than in 2016 (IL/NY/NJ/FL) in the most populous states even if he wins reelection, which will make no difference whatsoever in the EC. I think TX will be quite close (and Trump’s definitely not winning TX by more than Cruz if CA is Biden +38), but if I had to guess Trump narrowly holds on to it (if he doesn’t, this whole exercise is moot). Another issue for Biden is that most of the potential tipping-point states probably all require the same popular vote margin to flip (especially PA/FL/GA/MI—I’m not sure I buy AZ/WI being in that group), so there’s probably not much room for an uneven distribution of outcomes here which might benefit Democrats. In other words, as soon as Biden crosses the finish line (Biden +3.5? +4?), you’ll see a lot of states fall simultaneously, but he needs to cross it for it to actually matter.

Obviously this whole EC advantage is maybe sustainable for one more cycle but with the way TX/GA/AZ/NC are trending not much longer than that.

[brucejoel99]

4 maybe even 4.5 which won't happen. Most Biden wins the PV by is 1.5. He is an awful candidate.

No.

Yes. Biden will struggle to beat HRC's EV total in 2016.

lol k

[Mr. Smith]

5.

[Adam Griffin]

He likely loses with 3, he probably wins with 4, but 5 would be nearest whole number where I'd have no doubts about his chances.

[Pericles]

I think Biden can win as long as his PV margin is a bit above 2% (if he's lucky he could squeak out a win on a 2.5% margin) but for me to be really confident that he's won it would have to be at least 4 points, I'd probably need a 5-6 point PV win for Biden to know that he's won.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Four. Though I do think it's possible that he wins with a margin of about three, I just wouldn't necessarily be confident in it.

[Lechasseur]

Four. Though I do think it's possible that he wins with a margin of about three, I just wouldn't necessarily be confident in it.

This

[morgankingsley]

3.5 for bare minimum, 4 for a guarantee comfortable