Hamilton County, Indiana (Carmel)

[MT Treasurer]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

[MT Treasurer]

If you people seriously believe that a Romney +34/Trump +19 county in which Braun did seven points worse than Richard Mourdoch even as the state went from D+6 to R+6 couldn’t possibly swing another 8-12 points to the left...

I’m sure everything’s fine and that this is the kind of county which will surely vote 57% Trump and barely swing/trend Democratic in 2020, if at all:

[MT Treasurer]

Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

Lmao Hamilton literally did just that in 2016 and 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

^Don’t be deliberately obtuse. Obviously the 2018 Trend map is based on the 2012-2018 swing and not the 2016-2018 swing, and rightly so because Senate races in these red states aren’t comparable at all to presidential elections.

Hamilton trended something like 19 points to the left between 2012 and 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

^I did not compare 2016 and 2018, I said that it trended strongly Democratic in 2016 and in 2018, which is an accurate statement. I posted the trend maps above.

[MT Treasurer]

Trends at the Senate level between 2012 and 2018 are linked to what happened between 2012 and 2016 at Pres level, it's not indicative of what will happen between 2016 and 2020.

See, that’s where we disagree, so we’ll just have to see in 14 months.

[MT Treasurer]

This kind of thinking is due to 2 kinda lazy assumptions that many people are confident in:

1. The current trend of a location will continue and at the same velocity
2. 2018 midterms were a good indicator of what 2020 will be like

With an incumbent, we're not likely to see nearly as strong of trends as we did with the open election, this was true in 2004 and 2012 and it's very likely be true in 2020 as well. We went from Romney to Trump which is pretty significant. Going from Trump to Trump is not.

It’s not a lazy assumption when all the data points support it. People said the same thing ("Going from Trump to Trump is not significant/Now Trump is the incumbent/People have gotten used to Trump by now") in 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

I believe Trump will win by single digits this time around. It’s moving leftward very fast.

In a such case he is losing the election in a landslide (11 to 12 points loss probably).

No, because uniform swing isn’t real.