IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. Not a big fan of her, but I don’t see her losing unless 2020 turns into a massive Democratic tsunami.

https://iowastartingline.com/2016/08/30/can-democrats-ever-hope-to-defeat-joni-ernst/

She’s really good at retail politics.

[MT Treasurer]

Can’t wait until Ernst wins this "Toss-up race in elastic swing state IA" by more than "deep/inelastic red state incumbents" Daines, Sullivan, Perdue, Cornyn, Tillis, and McSally.

[MT Treasurer]

Bayh Bayh to Iowa if this happens.

I hope Hubbell decides to primary if this is the case.

Hubbell? Maybe he’d do better than Vilsack, but the guy couldn’t even beat Reynolds in a massive Democratic wave year. Most people thought that race was easily winnable for Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

What did Vilsack do to gain so much ire from Atlas?

Old,retread and hasn't had an election in 18 years . Also not a great resume as Secretary of ag and even then most people don't know. Iowa can either be bayh 2.0 with vilsack or kander 2.0(but a victory) with a young populist candidate like jd scholten. No one really cares about his ideology but that rarely matters anyway especially in a retail state like iowa.

Ernst is a far stronger and popular incumbent than Roy Blunt, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Wait, do people actually think that Vilsack could outperform the Democratic nominee by as much as Bayh or Bredesen? Seriously, maybe he’d "outperform" by as much as Tommy Thompson on a good night for Democrats, but more likely he collapses like Ted Strickland and loses by double digits. He’s not beating a relatively popular incumbent Republican Senator in a state like Iowa, especially since it’s fairly likely that Trump wins the state by 6% or more in 2020 (even if he loses reelection), and in that case even someone like Scholten would most likely lose unless Ernst runs a garbage/Roy Blunt tier campaign. People are saying that Ernst couldn’t possibly win by a lot because reasons, but I’m old enough to remember when people said the same thing about the "very vulnerable" Rob Portman. Of course Ernst isn’t completely safe, but she’s definitely not more vulnerable than Tillis, Gardner, Daines, Cornyn, or Perdue.

[MT Treasurer]

Ernst has better numbers than Tillis, McSally, Perdue, Collins, and even Sullivan (who’s considered safe for some reason). Also, Trump’s at 45/52 (-7) in this poll.

That said, Ernst is two or three 99 county tours away from locking it up.

[MT Treasurer]

A more interesting question than "Will Joni Ernst be reelected in 2020?" may be "If Democrats can’t beat her in 2020, when exactly will they?" Certainly not in 2026, which is likely to be a midterm under a Democratic president. The Republican presidential nominee will most likely win Iowa in 2032, and while 2038 could be a midterm under a Republican president, the ship will have most likely sailed by then and Ernst followed in Grassley's footsteps. It’s really now or never for Dems in 2020, and even that race will be an uphill battle for whoever they nominate.

[MT Treasurer]

More retail politics by Ernst.

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Reynolds won Hardin by 24% and Boone by 2%.

[MT Treasurer]

She’s definitely favored, and this notion that the 2014/2016 results were a fluke in Iowa but not in Ohio (which is Likely R and going to vote 10+ points to the right of Iowa from now on because reasons) is as absurd as saying that Arizona is still a Lean/Likely R state. Democrats could easily take the Senate in 2020, but there’s really no way Iowa will be the tipping point race. Yes, the state can be swingy, but there are far better targets for Democrats, especially if Trump wins reelection.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats start needing to pick up 3 seats... 4 once we give Alabama to the Republicans. How is it unlikely that iowa isn’t at least 5th on that list?

I really don’t see how Iowa flips before Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, even with the 50%+1 rule in GA. This is obviously not nearly as likely, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of KS/MT/AK flipped before IA, especially if Trump wins reelection.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats start needing to pick up 3 seats... 4 once we give Alabama to the Republicans. How is it unlikely that iowa isn’t at least 5th on that list?

I really don’t see how Iowa flips before Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, even with the 50%+1 rule in GA. This is obviously not nearly as likely, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of KS/MT/AK flipped before IA, especially if Trump wins reelection.

Colorado yeah—and I'm tempted to agree with North Carolina as more likely—but Iowa has a track record of voting Democratic statewide federally in recent memory for President and for Tom Harkin, and that's why I put it ahead of Georgia and even Arizona. I think you could make a case that 2018 in Arizona puts it ahead of Iowa, but there's no argument for Georgia.

Tom Harkin won in 2008, the same year Democrats won federal races in Arkansas, South Dakota and Louisiana in a landslide, so certainly not that "recent." Arizona elected a Democratic Senator in 2018, and Democrats came closer to winning GA-GOV 2014/GA-GOV 2018/GA-SEN 2014/GA-SEN 2016(!)/GA-PRES 2016 than IA-GOV 2014/IA-GOV 2018/IA-SEN 2014/IA-SEN 2016/IA-PRES 2016. Georgia might be more "inelastic" than Iowa, but we’re getting really close to the point where Democrats don’t even need to win over that many swing voters to flip the state (certainly fewer of them than in Iowa). Hell, even Stacey Abrams only lost by like 1.5% and Barrow only lost the runoff by 4 even though he underperformed badly in places like Cobb and Gwinnett.

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why Sand wouldn’t want to wait until 2022 when the other seat is open, but I guess they need to run someone lol. Pretty telling that Vilsack declined to run, apparently he’s still very popular in the state.

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure why Sand wouldn’t want to wait until 2022 when the other seat is open, but I guess they need to run someone lol. Pretty telling that Vilsack declined to run, apparently he’s still very popular in the state.

Because that seat would have a 0% chance at flipping in a President Harris midterm and at best 50% chance in a Trump 6-year itch. Might as well run now when Ernst isn’t entrenched and when it looks like Trump has a decent chance of losing reelection

I get your point, but is the other seat really more likely to flip with a popular incumbent running for reelection in a presidential year with Trump likely winning the state by a wide margin simultaneously? I guess it depends on whether 2020 or 2022 turns out to be the better year for Dems (no way to know), but defeating an incumbent/strong retail politician in a state like Iowa isn’t exactly easy.

[MT Treasurer]

She’s obviously more likely to win reelection than to beat Ernst. I’d say Finkenauer is slightly more vulnerable than Axne in 2020 but both House races will be highly contested.

[MT Treasurer]

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https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/sen-liz-mathis-meets-with-democrats-in-dc-to-talk-about-2020-senate-race

[MT Treasurer]

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https://desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/02/28/joni-ernst-defy-history-re-elected-2020-grassley-harkin-trump-senate-politics-elections-republicans/3016068002/

[MT Treasurer]

Even with Scholten there’s no way IA will be even close to the tipping point race. This is one of only three Senate races where I think Atlas really overestimates Democratic chances of winning (I think Republicans are overestimated in pretty much every other competitive or somewhat competitive race).

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats are also doing well in fundraising in KY, which isn’t going to make the race any more winnable for them. Sure, Ernst almost certainly isn’t going to win by Grassley margins, but to deny that Greenfield faces an uphill battle here because she just outraised Ernst by a negligible amount in one quarter would be silly.

[MT Treasurer]

I dont believe any of us think that the race tilts towards the Democrats or is even a pure tossup. What we are saying is that this is a positive sign that our candidate will still be well-funded even in a tough race.

Well, fair enough, but wasn’t that to be expected? This has been considered one of the best pick-up opportunities by the DSCC from day one.

I’d be much more worried about TX when it comes to fundraising.

[MT Treasurer]

Ernst is citing Charlie Cook lmao? She really isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer...

[MT Treasurer]

You’re telling me a Republican candidate winning an open seat with 52% of the vote in 2014 hasn’t proven herself to be unusually strong?

So what if she got 65,000 fewer votes than Hillary Clinton got in Iowa in 2016. Ernst is *beloved.*

So? Mark Warner got 700,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump got in Virginia and he’s still beyond safe in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

We’ll see what happens, but if Ernst survives a Democratic wave, outpeforms all swing state Republicans, and does better than Tuberville, Sullivan, Daines, Kobach, and Cornyn, I will gladly accept accolades. I remember taking a lot of flack for saying that Daines was more vulnerable than Ernst.

[MT Treasurer]

>Reddit/VoteDEM
>Chris Murphy
>"the Senate may come down this seat" (lol)
>"donate to Theresa tonight"

Okay.

If Ernst is in serious danger of losing, the Senate majority is already gone for the GOP. Republicans shouldn’t take this seat for granted, but McConnell should be much more worried about potential tipping-point races (NC, MT, GA, KS, etc.) than he should be about losing IA.

[MT Treasurer]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

And imo that's only if Kobach loses the primary in Kansas, otherwise it's 56. I get the feeling this is going to be a laughably overrated race to the bitter end.

I was actually including Kansas before Iowa: subtract Alabama and add CO AZ ME NC MT GAx2 KS IA

I think TX could go ahead of IA too

Yeah My maths was a bit out I shouldn't post when it's late lmao

TX could have been way ahead of IA but with the useless candidates it looks like that ones more or less entirely off the board to me

Although I still don’t buy that Cornyn (who’s hilariously overrated by Democrats and Republicans alike) is going to considerably outrun Trump (or Cruz). He’s really lucky that Democrats are prioritizing IA over TX, and I won’t be surprised if he has a "shockingly" close call on election night.

[MT Treasurer]

NC and IA aren’t comparable states. Like, at all.