All these "rules" about elections that Atlas has are often based solely on the last general election. This election we already broke a rule. The rule being that Democrats have a lock on the presidency.
They do not. Trump won. And yet, Democrats are not "dead", they still won the popular vote. Even if I admit that is meaningless under the constitution.
Democratic turnout was lower in this election compared to 2012 and 2008. There is no hard rule or evidence in November 2016 that Democratic turnout will be low in November 2018.
The lesson of this election is not that all rules are wrong and all facts can be ignored, it is that we shouldn't be blind to the idea that they
may be wrong and that we should remain critical. I'm also not saying Dem turnout will be lower compared to 2018, but I see no reason why Dem turnout would be higher than in 2014 or 2010 unless Trump is massively unpopular. The point is that mobilizing Dem voters is much harder than mobilizing GOP voters. That was true before the 2016 general election too. It may not be that hard if Trump is super unpopular, but if his approvals are 40%-50%, 2018 will be a lean R election. The difference with the midterms in the 00s is that Dems now have a much harder time winning white voters.
David, there is really no way you can know that.
I agree, that statement was a bit much. However, so is many people's assumption that Tester/Heitkamp are now saved.
Even when I rant about 2018, I'm only making educated guesses. Independents could completely turn on Republicans like 2006, Democrats could experience a surge in turnout while Republicans, upset by Trump, a man many didn't explicitly support for him so much as a vote against Clinton, stay home, and a fair number of Republicans could switch over. OR maybe none of that happens.
It is clear that Republicans, for now, still have a structural midterm advantage in a number of ways, but that is by no means an ironclad insulator against backlash.
All I can say is, just keep an eye on the Generic Ballot question for 2018 and Trump's approval ratings. If you see Trump constantly floating around the low 40s (or lower) and a generic congressional ballot polls showing Democrats up by mid-high single digits or low double digits, Republicans could very well be in for big trouble in 2018. They might not lose the Senate but the House and many state legislatures/governorships would be at risk.
Or maybe, it's a wash. Who knows, but there are ways to see a backlash coming ahead of time. It's rarely a genuine surprise and in some cases can be seen long before election day.
You're right.
Lol, 2016 was far worse for Democrats than 2014.
2016 was worse in effect (unexpectedly losing the White House, unexpectedly not taking back the Senate) but in terms of electoral results 2014 was obviously worse for Democrats than 2016. If 2016 were worse for Dems than 2014, the GOP would have won NV-Sen and NH-Sen too, and IL-Sen would have been much closer. None of that happened. However, 2016 was also not a "neutral" year. Republicans winning Wisconsin and Michigan is quite something.
Poll
