Predict KY-GOV

[Duke of York]

Beshear only won because of anti Trump backlash and by a tiny margin. Anti Biden backlash will happen.

what therefore is your prediction? he will lose solely based on partisanship and approval ratings no longer mean anything?

[Duke of York]

Cameron +1

[Duke of York]

Beshear+8

Hope this comes to pass.

[Duke of York]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doensn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

[Duke of York]

Prediction:



Daniel Cameron (R) - 921,375, 51.26%
Andy Beshear (D, inc.) - 875,691, 48.72%
(Write-in) - 90, 0%

Total vote estimate: 1,797,156 | Margin +R 2.54 (45,684)

I personally think Beshear will win, but right now the numbers show that Cameron will narrowly win. In all calculations, Cameron ranged from 49-51%. The fact that there is no Libertarian nominee on the ballot helps Cameron. I had a similar map to 2019 with a few flips for both sides and better suburban margins for Beshear. Despite being a popular Governor in the state, Beshear can chalk up this loss to a nationalized race due to Biden's unpopularity. I may update this on Tuesday.


This was my 2019 call. I had predicted a narrow margin for Bevin 49-47, but the map obviously would be a Beshear win.

If this comes to pass it will prove approval rating doesn't mean a darn thing and tribalism and partisanship matters more.

Bashear is simply not entitled to win this race. Nor, is Cameron entitled to win this race. Who wins this race is solely the decision of Kentucky voters. If Cameron wins, an if, it merely means a majority of the voters preferred to be governed by Cameron rather than Bashear, no more, no less. Surely, you can imagine a voter who approves of Cameron more than he does Bashear. If Bashear loses, an if, I would put it down to him associating himself with people some voters don't like rather than "tribalism" or "partisanship." Since when was it wrong to judge someone with company they keep?

Never said he was entitled to win. What I said was it will prove approval ratings mean nothing.