Predict KY-GOV
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Poll
Question: -skip-
#1
Beshear by 10 or more		  
#2
Beshear by 7-10		  
#3
Beshear by 5-7		  
#4
Beshear by 3-5		  
#5
Beshear by 1-3		  
#6
Beshear by less than 1		  
#7
Cameron by less than 1		  
#8
Cameron by 1-3		  
#9
Cameron by 3-5		  
#10
Cameron by 5-7		  
#11
Cameron by 7-10		  
#12
Cameron by more than 10		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 108

Author Topic: Predict KY-GOV  (Read 5424 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: October 09, 2023, 07:50:52 AM »
One month to go, so it seems like a good time for this thread.

I’d rate it Lean D (I previously had it as a Toss-Up), and I’ll say Beshear wins 51-47.
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2023, 09:56:30 AM »
Beshear by around 5; voted for 5-7.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2023, 10:04:29 AM »
52/46 Beshear
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2023, 12:53:08 PM »
Beshear by 6.
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The Arizonan
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2023, 12:53:28 PM »
He will probably win by single digits (4-5 points).

If Daniel Cameron loses, does he still have a shot of winning an open Senate seat?
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BigZuck08
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2023, 12:56:46 PM »
Beshear by 5-7.

Quote from: The Arizonan on October 09, 2023, 12:53:28 PM
He will probably win by single digits (4-5 points).

If Daniel Cameron loses, does he still have a shot of winning an open Senate seat?

Probably, especially if he is backed by Trump again.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2023, 02:44:33 PM »
Beshear+5.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2023, 03:05:39 PM »
Beshear by a much smaller margin than current polling suggests. I'll say Beshear +2.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2023, 03:21:52 PM »
✓ Beshear (D, inc.): 52.2%
Cameron (R): 46.5%

Beshear +5.7
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2023, 05:36:54 PM »
Beshear +4
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2023, 07:06:47 PM »
I say Beshear wins by a Roy Cooper 2020 margin.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2023, 07:25:31 PM »
54-46 Beshear
KY AG General: 60-40 R
KY SOS: 66-34R
The other ones..your typical 62-38 R results..
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TDAS04
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2023, 08:26:15 PM »
Beshear wins by 3 (while losing Elliott County by over 10).
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2023, 08:52:07 PM »
Beshear+4
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oldkyhome
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« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2023, 12:06:49 AM »
Beshear by 8, although I’ll be the first to admit there’s an outside chance of a Cameron upset. It’s just not what I’m seeing on the ground.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2023, 12:43:31 AM »
I could see Beshear winning by 5%, but it's really not hard to see him winning by 10% either.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2023, 05:12:54 PM »
Beshear by 1-3. I think he'll underperform because a lot of his support is soft, and will not show up or flip Republican at the end. The fact that a governor as abhorrent as Bevin came within a percentage point of victory tells me that it's almost impossible for a Dem to get over the finish line in KY, though incumbency bias will probably bail out Beshear.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2023, 05:35:47 PM »
Cameron narrowly. I voted 1 to 3 in the poll.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2023, 05:39:34 PM »

Why do you think Cameron is going to win?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #19 on: October 10, 2023, 05:39:45 PM »
Quote from: No Empathizing With Barbarism on October 10, 2023, 05:12:54 PM
Beshear by 1-3. I think he'll underperform because a lot of his support is soft, and will not show up or flip Republican at the end. The fact that a governor as abhorrent as Bevin came within a percentage point of victory tells me that it's almost impossible for a Dem to get over the finish line in KY, though incumbency bias will probably bail out Beshear.

This is what I think as well. If Laura Kelly, with similar approval ratings but in a considerably less red state, only won by 2 points in her reelection, it's hard for me to see Beshear winning by that much more. He'll probably still win, though, just because it's not very common for incumbent governors to lose reelection bids.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #20 on: October 10, 2023, 05:42:20 PM »
Beshear+7
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #21 on: October 10, 2023, 05:43:17 PM »
Beshear 51-47
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #22 on: October 10, 2023, 09:01:48 PM »
Beshear by ~8%

Cameron is a historically weak candidate
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Radicalneo
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2023, 08:54:57 AM »
Andy wins by 2
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2023, 09:00:14 AM »
Beshear +5

Fundamentally different dynamic from Louisiana.
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