Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[Duke of York]

well thats good the amendments wont be on the may primary. They would have had a good chance of passing.

This could simply be a Pennsylvania thread. It doesn't have to be called the 2024 thread.

[Duke of York]

Can we also use this thread for the 2023 Pennsylvania court elections?

I guess. Hence why I have suggested this be called the Pennsylvania thread.

[Duke of York]

Pretty stunning Dem advantage in statewide turnout. Philly mayor and Allegheny stuff helped obviously, but the disparity is still pretty big.

Dem statewide turnout is at 1.04M, while Reps is at 821K. Dems is likely to grow a bit more as more Philly VBM come in.

To put in perspective, Dem turnout for the 2022 primary was 1.28M (GOP 1.35M). The fact that an off year election had that small of a dip is pretty incredible. I'll have to dive into the non-Philly county #s to see, because I feel like those will tell the true story.

Democrats tend to do well in off year elections when Philadelphia has its mayoral and city council elections.

[Duke of York]

Anything going on in the mayoral race? I know it's not going to be competitive but it could nevertheless be interesting.

i think the margin will be what to watch.

[Duke of York]

Anything going on in the mayoral race? I know it's not going to be competitive but it could nevertheless be interesting.

i think the margin will be what to watch.

2019: 80.33-19.41
2015: 85.1-13.2
2011: 74.8-21.7
2007: 83.4-17.3

Yep, I think it will probably be close to 2019s, but not as high as 2007/2015 for Dems. David Oh is probably way weaker than even I expected him to be though. He's even more of a nonfactor than you'd expect.

2019 margin seems highly likely. What makes you say hes's a non factor? Its a shame most of the city council elections are uncontested. no one should run unopposed in general election.

[Duke of York]

Anything going on in the mayoral race? I know it's not going to be competitive but it could nevertheless be interesting.

i think the margin will be what to watch.

2019: 80.33-19.41
2015: 85.1-13.2
2011: 74.8-21.7
2007: 83.4-17.3

Yep, I think it will probably be close to 2019s, but not as high as 2007/2015 for Dems. David Oh is probably way weaker than even I expected him to be though. He's even more of a nonfactor than you'd expect.

2019 margin seems highly likely. What makes you say hes's a non factor? Its a shame most of the city council elections are uncontested. no one should run unopposed in general election.

He just hasn't gained steam. It's not like a Krasner or Adams situation. Parker would be the first female mayor so she already has an extra boost, and she also is basically fine with both liberal and moderate voters at this point. Oh has no real constituency to get himself above the usual 15-18% the GOP gets imo.

make sense. Why were most of the city council elections left uncontested though?

[Duke of York]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

Not really true last year. They did a hell of a job given the environment.

didn't they gain a seat on the superior court?

[Duke of York]

Maybe I'm being super optimistic but I'm not worried about the judiciary election. It's generic dem vs generic rep in a roe environment with a philadelphia election boosting dem turnout lol

I’m very cautiously optimistic. The numbers are looking great, but the PA Dems have been sh**tting the bed since 2015 when it comes to statewide judicial races. Fingers crossed.

Not really true last year. They did a hell of a job given the environment.

didn't they gain a seat on the superior court?

Yep! And McLaughlin was <1% from winning the Supreme Court race too.

It was actually the Commonwealth Court where they gained a seat.

[Duke of York]

More Dem investment in PASC:

https://twitter.com/sophie_tatum/status/1709561379902894589

wonderful to see all elections being taken seriously especially elected courts.

[Duke of York]

More Dem investment in PASC:

https://twitter.com/sophie_tatum/status/1709561379902894589

This is important for Dems since holding this seat likely means they control the Supreme Court during the 2031 redistricting.  They should also be pushing to get independent redistricting on the ballot before 2031 just in case.

Pennsylvania does not have citizen initiated referendums.

[Duke of York]

Total ballots requested: 916,280
Dem: 658,632 (71.9%)
Rep: 183,178 (20.0%)

Total ballots returned: 52,105
Dem: 36,671 (70.4%)
Rep: 12,074 (23.2%)

Dem return rate: 5.6%
Rep return rate: 6.6%

How can their be such a massive lead for Democrats and yet Republicans lead the return rate by about one percent

[Duke of York]

Total ballots requested: 971,293
Dem: 690,979 (71.1%)
Rep: 199,509 (20.5%)

Total ballots returned: 309,880
Dem: 227,505 (73.4%)
Rep: 62,099 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 32.9%
Rep return rate: 31.1%

More Dem upward trajectory; returns are now D+53.4, compared to D+50.6 in requests. Return rate is now nearly 2% higher for Dems as well.

I wonder if Philadelphia and Allegheny are starting to come in. Democrats do well in off year elections when the Philly mayor is up.

[Duke of York]

I feel better about this race than any other in November I think.

The Philadelphia mayor and Allegheny County Executive election will help.

[Duke of York]

Total ballots requested: 1,026,227
Dem: 723,746 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,286 (21.0%)

Total ballots returned: 570,553
Dem: 417,829 (73.2%)
Rep: 114,149 (20.0%)

Dem return rate: 57.7%
Rep return rate: 53.0%

Dem lead: +303,680 (was +275,660 yesterday)
Dem return rate lead: +4.7% (was +3.8% yesterday)

excellent news. How is Philadelphia looking?

[Duke of York]

Total ballots requested: 1,026,653
Dem: 723,958 (70.5%)
Rep: 215,455 (21.0%)
= D+49.5

Total ballots returned: 651,848
Dem: 474,115 (72.7%)
Rep: 132,640 (20.3%)
= D+52.4

Dem return rate: 65.5%
Rep return rate: 61.5%

Dem lead: +341,475 (was +323,487)
Dem return rate lead: +4.0% (was +4.4% yesterday)

4 days out from election
2022: 1.06M; 70.1% D, 20.9% R — D+49.2
2023: 652K; 72.7% D, 20.3% R — D+52.4

Hows Philadelphia turnout?

[Duke of York]

So, to summarize the judicial results:

McCaffery (D) beat Carluccio (R) and Dems will now hold a 5-2 supermajority on the court.

Timika Lane (D) and Jill Beck (D) both flipped seats on the GOP-held state Superior court (Court below SC) thus flipping control of the chamber from R to D.

Matt Wolf (D) flipped a seat on the Commonwealth court and will bring that chamber's composition down to 5R-4D.

can you provide a source?

[Duke of York]

Overall statewide turnout is looking to be about 36%, the highest at least this century for an off year election.

On the higher side was:
Bucks - 43%
Chester - 43%
Montgomery - 42%
Allegheny - 41%
Delaware - 38%

Impressive. Wish Philadelphia was higher though. Would have raised the margins for the judicial elections even higher but a win is a win so im not complaining.

[Duke of York]

Overall statewide turnout is looking to be about 36%, the highest at least this century for an off year election.

On the higher side was:
Bucks - 43%
Chester - 43%
Montgomery - 42%
Allegheny - 41%
Delaware - 38%

Impressive. Wish Philadelphia was higher though. Would have raised the margins for the judicial elections even higher but a win is a win so im not complaining.

I'm actually looking at it the opposite way: if we can get this kind of turnout in the collar counties around Philadelphia in 2024, we may not need to rely as heavily on Philly and Pittsburgh to deliver a statewide victory. Of course you want to maximize turnout in Philly as much as possible, but it seems like the higher the turnout in those collar counties, the more favorable it is for Dems.

Yep- you of course want Philly to be high as possible, but there should be a massive concerted effort in SEPA this time around, even moreso than this year or before. The campaigns clearly targeted SEPA specifically this go around, and it not only had huge effects for the 4 collar counties, but outlining counties like Berks as well.

i agree with this.

[Duke of York]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?

The chamber is so close, it's definitely possible.

it could flip February 13th with the special election.

[Duke of York]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?

The chamber is so close, it's definitely possible.

it could flip February 13th with the special election.

It could, but that one seems unlikely. PA Dems have been on a hot streak with specials and the seat is even bluer downballot than Prez suggests (reg D+18)

Plus they have been using very effective messaging in special election emphasizing control of the house is being decided. The used that in the Pittsburgh area specials early in the year and it worked.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1745865537563881785

Bad news for 2024 Democrats if they need such a favorable electorate to win.

Do you ever not doom? It's not bad news at all.

[Duke of York]

if Republicans run Mastriano again they can guarantee Shapiro gets a second term and has even bigger coattails then 2022.

[Duke of York]

is Summer Lee vulnerable in her primary?

[Duke of York]

Turnout in Philly actually trended up in the 2023 primary from the 2022 primary, despite the high profile races in 2022. Interested to see how turnout does today

2023P: 205k
2022P: 201k
2021P: 162k
2020P: 302k

Sixty-Six wards has estimated turnout close to 150k now which seems high, but we'll see.

https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/

Interesting. Turnout was decent there in the 2023 election too.