Texas 2022 megathread

[Duke of York]

-FEB 15 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 16

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353,507 Texans have voted so far, 2.06% of registered Texan voters.

134,564 (38.07%) voted in the Democratic Primary
218,943 (61.93%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Democrats: Galveston, Uvalde
To Republicans: Hays, Nueces, Jefferson

That is already a sign for much larger turnout in the Republican primary than 2018. Already a seventh of the amount of voters in the 2018 Republican party have voted in this primary.

Any idea if there’s any documented correlation between GE and primary preferences?

There isn't one. primary turnout does not predict winners.

[Duke of York]

I expect Ryan, Beasley, Crist, Demings and Beto to pull off the upsets but they can win with R state legislatures as a check

I call it now it's only 5 pts that within MOE 5/6 pts

I hope your right.

[Duke of York]

I have a gut feeling now a blue wave is blossoms already we ALREADY saw it in AK and NY 19 there is a lag between Biden Approvals and state by state polls Beto will win

I very much hope your right. Flipping Texas would be huge.

[Duke of York]

I'm always one to not make a big fuss over crowd size because I see how people used it to say Bernie was going to win in 2016 or 2020, but I think there is a *there* there here with Beto's crowds.

Beto is going to even dark red territory and getting people excited and getting a ton of people show up. Abbott appears to not even be actively campaigning, let alone going to blue or dark blue territory.

Its a very good strategy. No county should be ignored and no district should be uncontested.

[Duke of York]

I'm always one to not make a big fuss over crowd size because I see how people used it to say Bernie was going to win in 2016 or 2020, but I think there is a *there* there here with Beto's crowds.

Beto is going to even dark red territory and getting people excited and getting a ton of people show up. Abbott appears to not even be actively campaigning, let alone going to blue or dark blue territory.

It's interesting he is pulling crowds in rural red areas. He's been promoting a lot of videos of R voters switching to support him which is smart. I wonder how many actually flip to him.

A lot of them probably voted for Biden in 2020. Maybe it helps his margins in the big suburbs, but not as much in the rurals.

what is your evidence for this?