2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Ami Bera in trouble?

https://twitter.com/spamalaanderzon/status/1448420877486333953

Calling Folsom "conservative" is misleading; it was Biden+7. Sure it's historically Republican but that's neither here nor there. Roseville and Rocklin are also fast trending D, with Roseville only Trump+1 and Rocklin Trump+5. This is a very trends-are-real type of district that would have been unwinnable for the Democrats 10 years ago and will be unwinnable for the Republicans 10 years from now; Bera just has to hold on for a cycle.

A few more things to note about Folsom. For one thing, it’s already in Bera’s district. And second, it’s rapidly expanding south of Highway 50. There’s a lot of Bay Area transplants as well as Asian-Americans thanks to Intel and its generally good reputation. It’s one of those high-education suburbs that Dems have done well in since Trump was elected and even before then tbh.

In 2014, Brown narrowly beat Kashkari in Folsom; not sure about 2018 or the recall, but Folsom has been getting bluer over the last decade.

Bera should definitely be nervous, but I’ll wait until the final map comes out to make any real prognosis.

All this being said, the map that puts Humboldt and Shasta Counties together is laughably stupid.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

For 2022 I think it's quite possible only Harder CA-10 and Garcia CA-25 flip, washing each other out. However, it's easy to see a 2023-24 with Trump and congressional GOP going crazy where the Rs end up getting obliterated and lose CA-10,21,22,39,48,50 all at once.

Eh, I’d say Bera’s new seat could flip in 2022 as well. And Issa’s may also fall. He is not a good fit for a Biden+6.

Yeah, tbh, I’d be worried if I was Bera given this map. His old district is basically being cut in half. Some hack like Kevin Kiley could win it in 2022, but I could see Bera taking it back in 2024 if he ran again.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Another visualization was released yesterday (11/07), and well, it's something...



https://davesredistricting.org/join/33c10671-b884-4cfe-a898-213073b37680

Change the Sacramento configuration a bit and that actually looks good.

The Sacramento area (especially Sacramento County and West Sacramento) is absolutely getting the shaft in all of these maps and it’s disgusting. Not even the fact that Bera might be wiped out, but like at least Bera’s current district is entirely within Sacramento County and Matsui’s district has West Sac and uses the Yolo causeway as a natural divider (West Sac is also in the 916/279 area code as opposed to 530 of Davis, Woodland, and Winters). I get having the Delta as a community of interest (and not just because that’s where Garamendi lives), but like keep Placer County whole and not with Sacramento County please. And don’t stick Folsom in that mountain monstrosity.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Terrible map for the Sacramento Area. Davis might be a bit of a stretch to include (as I mentioned a bit before, having West Sac is ok, but the Yolo Bypass makes it a bit iffy to include Davis with Sacramento

Where does Ami Bera run?

Away

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Ugh, District 3 looks awful. I hate how it crosses the mountains and then reaches down and snatches Folsom.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

The new CA-3 (where I live) is hideous. What was the logic there?

Are you familiar with why Inyo and Mono often get grouped with places that aren’t close as the crow flies?

Yes. That doesn't justify what they did with Folsom and El Dorado County.

And it’s also not explanatory of the map shown. It would make sense if Inyo and Mono were with say District 23 due to the Sierras and how Monitor Pass is closed in the winter.