How many counties will Elizabeth Warren lose?

[JMT]

I’m going to stick with one for now (Plymouth), since she lost that county in 2018 (a good year for Democrats) against a weak opponent, so I don’t imagine her winning it now. But given it’ll be a presidential year, I don’t think other counties will flip, except for maybe Worcester.

[JMT]

I’m going to stick with one for now (Plymouth), since she lost that county in 2018 (a good year for Democrats) against a weak opponent, so I don’t imagine her winning it now. But given it’ll be a presidential year, I don’t think other counties will flip, except for maybe Worcester.

Diehl was from Plymouth, though.

Oh true, I didn’t think of that. That’s a good point.

Regardless, the fact that Elizabeth Warren may lose any counties at all goes to show that she isn’t a great candidate. In my opinion, the only reason she’s in this seat is because she was the only Democrat willing to step up and challenge Scott Brown (which don’t get me wrong, I’m appreciative of that!), and Presidential turnout / MA being such a blue state carried her over the finish line. While Brown was popular at the time, in retrospect I think any semi-serious Democratic nominee would’ve defeated Brown in 2012.

Warren will definitely win again in 2024, because she’s a Democrat in Massachusetts. But, she’ll underperform the top of the ticket. If someone stepped up to challenge her in a primary, I genuinely think it would be a competitive race, she’s just not that well liked here. But, the Democratic establishment is firmly behind her and I don’t expect anyone significant will run, so she’ll be the nominee and partisanship will allow her to win the general pretty comfortably.

[JMT]

I’m going to stick with one for now (Plymouth), since she lost that county in 2018 (a good year for Democrats) against a weak opponent, so I don’t imagine her winning it now. But given it’ll be a presidential year, I don’t think other counties will flip, except for maybe Worcester.

Diehl was from Plymouth, though.

Oh true, I didn’t think of that. That’s a good point.

Regardless, the fact that Elizabeth Warren may lose any counties at all goes to show that she isn’t a great candidate. In my opinion, the only reason she’s in this seat is because she was the only Democrat willing to step up and challenge Scott Brown (which don’t get me wrong, I’m appreciative of that!), and Presidential turnout / MA being such a blue state carried her over the finish line. While Brown was popular at the time, in retrospect I think any semi-serious Democratic nominee would’ve defeated Brown in 2012.

Warren will definitely win again in 2024, because she’s a Democrat in Massachusetts. But, she’ll underperform the top of the ticket. If someone stepped up to challenge her in a primary, I genuinely think it would be a competitive race, she’s just not that well liked here. But, the Democratic establishment is firmly behind her and I don’t expect anyone significant will run, so she’ll be the nominee and partisanship will allow her to win the general pretty comfortably.

She was not the only candidate willing to take on Brown, National Dems saw her as a rising star and worked to clear the field for her. (They were worried of a contested primary)

I unfortunately mostly agree with your thoughts on Brown's chances in 2012 regardless of opponent. (I worked for Brown's 2012 campaign, Partisanship and presidential turnout killed us)

Yeah that’s a good point, a few local politicians/political figures initially declared runs (Tom Conroy, Setti Warren, Alan Khazei, Bob Massie), but I guess I was more so referring to some of the bigger players that decided to sit the race out (e.g., anyone in the Congressional delegation, Vicki Kennedy, Deval Patrick, statewide officeholders etc).

And yes, I think Brown likely would’ve lost in 2012 regardless of opponent. On a related note, I think Brown could’ve likely won the Special Election to replace John Kerry in 2013, and probably would’ve defeated Charlie Baker in the primary / Martha Coakley in the general if he had instead chosen to run for Governor in 2014. It was definitely a bizarre choice to move to NH to run for Senate there. Sure, NH is better for Republicans than MA, but Brown had some pretty obvious next political moves available in MA.

[JMT]

It depends. If the GOP nominee is Antonellis, Ayyadurai, or the other nobodies, then Warren wins all counties. If Polito gets in the race and is nominated, then I could see her winning two counties, Worcester and Plymouth.

But I will assume that Polito won't run, so I voted 0 in the poll.

Yeah I don’t think Polito runs for Senate. I wouldn’t be surprised if Polito runs for Governor in 2026 (or if Maura Healey is still really popular then, maybe she waits till a later, open Governor’s race), but I don’t see her trying to go to Washington.