Israel-Gaza war

[Intell]

These are obviously morally depraved and not part of some noble Palestinian resistance. But there is a broader point what's the end game for Israel-Palestine that doesn't end with military occupation/segregation/ethnic cleansing.

[Intell]

These are obviously morally depraved and not part of some noble Palestinian resistance. But there is a broader point what's the end game for Israel-Palestine that doesn't end with military occupation/segregation/ethnic cleansing.

The disputed territory of the Holy Lands is too small for 2 states, but they can't kill millions to make an ethnically pure land either, too Nazi for the civilized world.

They should try a federation of Israel and Palestine, afterall that was the proposed UN solution for Cyprus for turks and greeks that have been fighting on and off for 200 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-state_solution

There is no way a one state solution works unless there's a dictatorship.

 I think we are going to see military occupation which inadvertently/inevitably leads to a mass ethnic cleansing. The Netanyahu government won't accept less after these depraved attacks.

[Intell]

What I've definitely seen is "normie" Democrats, mostly older, who defaulted to soft Israel support get galvanized into more vociferous Israel support, along with a lot of very loud voices from the sorts of KHive circles (and some weird cult called the school bonds wolves who dox people? IDK if you've heard of them) who got negatively polarized into aggressively supporting Israel. I have not seen minds changed outright.

Well, "stuff I've seen" is for me basically never representative. I'm glad you agree on the KHive stuff, though -- I pointed out back in our discussion back in 2021 that there had already been a significant pro-Israel turn among plugged-in centrist Democrats (and that, in particular, volunteers for the Biden and Buttigieg campaigns seemed to be commonly drawn from pro-Israel organizations at the university level). There had already been some amount of negative polarization, where those who disliked Sanders/Warren had already become fairly stridently pro-Israel. Few Democratic communities were against Sanders and Warren in quite the way the most strident Kamala supporters were in 2019. The current movement is among those sociologically similar to those people, but not so tuned in that they would've gone and worked for a campaign.

(In general -- while I did not call that an attack like this would happen and my guess was that Hamas would get in trouble for sheltering some foreign terrorist group -- I want to note that I was correct in saying that Palestinian liberationism would behave in ways cartoonishly evil enough that the trend of it losing international support would continue after 2021. I also called increasing Israeli radicalism not being very relevant to opinion abroad.)

I've also seen Left-Zionists simultaneously advocate aggressive force against Gaza as well as an end to the West Bank occupation and an openness to discussing the occupation (in and of itself and as something which strained the IDF due to the right's fixation on it).

I haven't really seen that; I guess I've seen Haaretz not change its position. But the Haaretz editorial line has been very extreme for a while; back in 2016-2017 I recall it getting condemned for anti-Semitism by both quite left-wing Israel-skeptical American Jewish journalists and also the Israeli left at that time, and links to it have dropped precipitously since that time. Their business model had been based for a long time on getting attention by writing provocative things, so being behind a paywall is very strange.

But what I've seen from politicians within Israel is Meretz members advocating courses of action that would've been considered edgy and controversial among the hawkish right, like, last week.

What I've seen is a massive splintering between the centre-left, the left, and the far-left on Isreal-Palestine.

The centre-left (in Australia) has switched from being ambivalent calling for 2SS to be ferociously on the side of Isreal, openly supporting Isreal's right to fully defend itself.

The left has stayed nominally the same, supporting Palestinian liberation but is being isolated between the far-left who are cheering on civilian genocide and the centre-left who have switched to being pro-Israel.

The far-left have been disgusting people who are fine with terrorism and are eliminating any chance of a cease-fire or peace campaign.

[Intell]

I went to a service today at my local synagogue (who hate Netanyahu & have sermons about protecting the rights of Palestinians). We had someone speak whose family had been raped and murdered by Hamas. Meanwhile, I go on Twitter and then see that Harvard students (in addition to certain individuals around here) have released a statement that this rape is justified because Israel exists.

I ing hate this world.

Not doing both sides, because the Harvard Student's refusal to condemn Hamas/their justification is disgusting, but Marco Rubio has called for the genocide of Gaza. Disgusting stuff all around.

[Intell]

I went to a service today at my local synagogue (who hate Netanyahu & have sermons about protecting the rights of Palestinians). We had someone speak whose family had been raped and murdered by Hamas. Meanwhile, I go on Twitter and then see that Harvard students (in addition to certain individuals around here) have released a statement that this rape is justified because Israel exists.

I ing hate this world.

Not doing both sides, because the Harvard Student's refusal to condemn Hamas/their justification is disgusting, but Marco Rubio has called for the genocide of Gaza. Disgusting stuff all around.

Pretty sure he meant eradicating Hamas, so I think so far Israel and it's supporters are just using careless wording.

https://twitter.com/digby56/status/1711491477216678023

[Intell]

I don't think you guys understand what a complete elimination of Hamas and it's linkeages would entail.

[Intell]

Now what does completely eliminate Hamas entail? It's not as easy as you guys think and if done fully it will cause mass deaths.

[Intell]

I don't think you guys understand what a complete elimination of Hamas and it's linkeages would entail.

Yes.  But that's not what you said.  You wrote, "Marco called for the genocide of Gaza".  That was a fabrication. Then you tried to justify this fabrication with a a tweet from some guy that was lying through exaggeration.  Now you're gaslighting.  

What? Rubio responded to a question on how to eliminate Hamas in Gaza without a genocide, and his response was Hamas must be eliminated no matter what, essentially calling for a genocide.

[Intell]

Now what does completely eliminate Hamas entail? It's not as easy as you guys think and if done fully it will cause mass deaths.

if Hamas wants to save lives and surrender, the world and Israel would love that.  If the non-Hamas in Gaza want to fix their own problem and take care of Hamas themselves, the world and Israel would love that even more.


Otherwise...

This is not how the world works, what you are advocating for is that you're fine with a mass death toll, just let me know in months from now how that pans out. I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

[Intell]

Now what does completely eliminate Hamas entail? It's not as easy as you guys think and if done fully it will cause mass deaths.

No.  It is as easy as I think.  I think you were fooled into thinking Marco Rubio said he wanted to "eradicate Gazans" by some A-Hole on Twitter.  Then you realized you were incorrect.  Instead of just saying you made a mistake, we have to go through this whole charade.  

Like now you've changed your claim from "eradicate Gazans" to "Cause Mass Death".  Yes.  We get it.  Many people will die in the eradication of Hamas.  If they would like to save the lives of their Civilians, they should hand-over all the remaining hostages immediately.    

Maybe genocide is the wrong terminology, but please tell me how you eradicate Hamas without a genocide-scale death toll occurring

[Intell]

Ok whatever I'll say this, hopefully will live in this utopian world where Israel can eliminate Hamas without hundreds of thousands of people dying. I'd love to live in that world, so hopefully you people are right.

[Intell]

This is not how the world works, what you are advocating for is that you're fine with a mass death toll, just let me know in months from now how that pans out. I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

oh I'd rather it not happen, I'd much rather have Hamas surrender or the non-Hamas in Gaza take care of their own mess, but Hamas already made their bed, they will sleep (and a long sleep at that) in it no matter what my (or your) opinion is.

I'm fully aware that's what will happen but I don't think we should be cheering that on, but whatever, apparently believing in the value of human life makes you pro-hamas or pro-apartheid.

[Intell]

https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1711405575211282769

Don't know if this is true, but holy the incompetence if it is.

[Intell]

Apparently I was definitely wrong to be worried about a genocide in Gaza apparently and say the likes of Marco Rubio were promoting a genocidal rhetoric.  

[Intell]

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1715808716463743212

Half of 18–34-year-olds being pro-terrorism is legitimately concerning.

I think there is substantial response bias here but it'll probably still be around 25-33% from experience.