Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

[136or142]

but with 7 seats and a opposition role, the Libs will probably be back. Just like in 2011.

Are you joking? Obviously all things are possible in Canada, but this is a horrific result for them - they're left with a random string of locally popular timeservers, which is not a good sort of caucus to have at that size. They are going to have to battle very hard to remain relevant before they can think of recovery.

3 in Eastern Ontario (Orleans, Ottawa South and Ottawa Vanier)  3  in Toronto (Don Valley East, Don Valley West and Scarborough-Guildwood) and 1 in the North (Thunder Bay-Superior North).

I disagree they are 'random,' these are most of the strongest liberal ridings in Ontario and they are mostly clustered.

[136or142]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

Doesn't Harden support BDSM?

[136or142]

At the beginning of the campaign I wrote that I thought the NDP could win 58 ridings (the 20 they held) and 38 others.  Of the net 20 ridings they gained (assuming the win in Kiiwentinoong) all of them were on my list. The NDP lost Kenora-Rainy River previously held by Sarah Campbell, I know there were boundary changes.

The new NDP caucus contains 20 men and 20 women.  These are the new NDP MPPs

Toronto
1.Davenport, Marit Stiles, Former ACTRA National Director of Policy and Communications, Consultant, Federal NDP President, School Trustee 2014-

2.Humber River-Black Creek (York West), Tom Rakocevic, Toronto City Councillor Anthony Peruzza Executive Assistant

3.University-Rosedale, Jessica Bell, TTC Riders Executive Director, Former University Lecturer in Advocacy and Communications

4.York South-Weston, Faisal Hassan, Former M.P Assistant, Former Somali Canadian Radio Talk Show Host, Author

5.Toronto Centre, Suze Morrison, Indigenous Friendship Society Communications Coordinator, Communications Consultant

6.Scarborough South West, Doly Begum, Keep Hydro Public Policy Coordinator

7.Spadina-Fort York, Chris Glover, Social Science Department Professor, School Trustee 2010-

8.Toronto-St. Paul's, Jill Andrew, Fashion Educator, Speaker and Columnist, Co-Owner Glad Day Book Shop

9.Beaches-East York, Rima Berns McGown, Diaspora Studies Professor (Muslim Societies and Culture)

905
1.Brampton Centre, Sara Singh, Public Policy Instructor, NPO Head 'Broadening Horizons'

2.Brampton North, Kevin Yarde, Weather Network Host

Eastern Ontario
1.Ottawa Centre, Joel Hardens, Canadian Federation of Students Social Policy Researcher, Local Community Organizer, Author

2.Kingston and the Islands, Ian Arthur, Chez Piggy Restaurant Executive Chef

Hamilton
1.Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Sandy Shaw, Hamilton Port Authority Director, Former First Ontario Credit Union Director of Social Responsibility, Former Credit Union Chair

London to Windsor
1.London North Centre, Terrence Kernaghan, Elementary School Teacher/Librarian, Union Local Executive

Kitchener to Niagara
1.Kitchener Centre, Laurier Mae Lindo, Wilfrid Laurier University Director of Diversity and Equity, Former Instructor, Diversity and Equity Consultant, Professional Singer

2.St. Catherines, Jennie Stevens, Hotel Dieu Shaver Frontline Service Worker, City Councillor 2003-

North
1.Sudbury, Jamie West, Smelter Flash Furnace Operator, Sudbury and District Labour Council President

2.Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Judith Monteith-Farrell, PSAC Regional Representative

3.Mushkegowak-James Bay, Guy Borgouin, United Steelworker's Local President

4.Kiiwentinoong, Sol Mamakwa, Co-Chair Sioux Lookout Meno Ya Win Health Centre, Nishnawki-Aksi Nation Lead Health Advisor

New MPPs in NDP ridings
1.Parkdale-High Park (Toronto, Cheri Di Novo riding), Bhutila Karpoche, MPP Cheri Di Novo Executive Assistant)

2.Niagara Centre (Cindy Forster Riding), Jeff Burch, Niagara Folk Arts Multicultural Centre Executive Director, St. Catherines City Councillor 2006-2014, 2014 Mayoral Candidate, lost 40.2-34.6%

3.Brampton East (Jagmeet Singh Riding, sort of) Gurratan Singh, Criminal Defense Lawyer and firm owner, Pop Up Restaurant 'Grand Trunk Road' Co-Owner

[136or142]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

Doesn't Harden support BDSM?

So?

Nothing wrong with some ideological diversity in the NDP caucus. Doesn't hurt the Tories one bit.

Would I be wrong in assuming that Hardens loves the Cuba and Venezuela governments though?

I have no love for the terrorist Netanyahu or Likud, but I don't know what the obsession is with some on the left with Israel, as if Israel is the worst nation in the world.  I think it's completely irrational.  If you want to protest against a nation by not buying their products, what about China?  I mean, if you want to protest, make an actual personal sacrifice. 

[136or142]

In the spirit of Glenn Thibault, who will the Ontario Liberals bribe to cross the floor to get themselves back to official party status? 

[136or142]

Spent the night watching results at a bar. I think I pissed off some Liberals when I was loudly cheering when Harden won.

Anyways, I only got 11 seats wrong. Mainstreet only got 10 seats wrong. A great night for us pollsters!

Wait, does this mean mainstreet is accepted as a logical Canadian pollster again?!

Once again Forum proves that is has the most accurate polls.  :/

[136or142]

There are still 9 polls outstanding.

Regional breakdown, using my regional breakdowns.  Adjust accordingly.

Toronto 25 ridings  
Beaches-East York, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley North, Don Valley West, Eglington-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke North, Humber River Black Creek (York West), Parkdale-High Park, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Centre, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough North, Scarborough-Rouge Park, Scarborough Southwest, Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Toronto-St Paul's, University-Rosedale, Willowdale, York Centre, York South-Weston

Total Votes: 1,097,912
P.C: 359,177, 32.7%
NDP: 400,180, 36.4
Liberal: 287,144, 26.2
Green: 33,248, 3.0
Other: 18,164

GTA (905), 27 ridings,
Ajax, Aurora-Oak Ridges, Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brampton South, Brampton West, Durham, King-Vaughan, Markham-Stouffville, Markham-Thornhill, Markham-Unionville, Mississauga Centre, Missassauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga-Malton, Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville, Oakville North-Burlington, Oshawa, Pickering-Uxbridge, Richmond Hill, Thornhill, Vaughan-Woodbridge, Whitby  
2 polls are outstanding in Newmarket-Aurora, and 2 polls are outstanding in Oakville

Total votes: 1,264,598
P.C: 578,385, 45.7%
NDP: 338,895, 26.8%
Liberal: 286,372, 22.6%
Green: 38,573, 3.1%
Other: 22,373

Ridings north of Toronto (around Lake Simcoe) 9 ridings
Barrie-Innisfil, Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Dufferin-Caledon, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Simcoe-Grey, Simcoe North, York-Simcoe

Total votes: 460,451
P.C: 240,046, 52.1%
NDP: 113,710, 24.7
Liberal: 59,111, 12.8
Green: 40,493, 8.8
Other, 7,091

Hamilton and area, 7 ridings
Burlington, Flamborough-Glanbrook, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Milton

Total votes: 338,993
P.C: 114,636, 33.8%
NDP: 140,130, 41.3
Liberal: 60,935 18.0
Green: 15,920 4.7
Other: 7,372

Kitchener to Niagara 16 ridings
Brantford-Brant, Cambridge, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Huron-Bruce, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Conestoga, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Niagara West, Oxford, Perth-Wellington, St. Catherines, Waterloo, Wellington-Halton Hills

Total votes: 823,922
P.C: 341,770, 41.5%
NDP: 290,671 35.3
Liberal: 108,715, 13.2
Green: 68,964, 8.4
Other: 13,802

London to Windsor 10 ridings
Chatham-Kent-Leamington, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, London-Fanshawe, London North Centre, London West, Sarnia-Lambton, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West

Total votes: 494,681
P.C: 200,854, 40.6%
NDP: 224,501, 45.4
Liberal: 43,430, 8.8
Green: 19,103, 3.9
Other: 6,793

Ottawa 8 ridings
Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, Orleans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean

Total votes: 435,231
P.C: 147,814, 34.0%
NDP: 130,184, 29.9
Liberal: 131,491, 30.2
Green: 16,866, 3.9
Other 8,876

Eastern Ontario, 11 ridings
Bay of Quinte, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Kingston and the Islands, Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston, Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, Nipissing, Northumberland-Peterborough South, Peterborough-Kawartha, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry-Glenross (Put me on the Cadillac Board!)

Total votes: 546,244
P.C: 265,118, 48.5%
NDP: 153,422, 28.1
Liberal: 97,393, 17.8
Green: 22,141, 4.1
Other: 8,170

North (and centre), 11 ridings
Algoma-Manitoulin, Kenora-Rainy River, Nickel Belt, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timiskaming-Cochrane, Timmins, Kiiwetinoong, Mushkegowuk-James Bay
5 polls are still outstanding in Mushkegowuk-James Bay

Total votes: 273,677
P.C: 74,622, 27.3%
NDP: 133,881, 48.9
Liberal: 48,692, 17.8
Green: 8,679, 3.2%
Other: 7,803

I might be slightly off with 'other' I added the 'other' candidates riding by riding in my head

A bit odd, I think.  The worst region for the Green Party is the city of Toronto (though not by much.)

[136or142]

Ottawa 8 ridings
Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, Orleans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean

Total votes: 435,231
P.C: 147,814, 34.0%
NDP: 130,184, 29.9
Liberal: 131,491, 30.2
Green: 16,866, 3.9
Other 8,876

The NDP's best ever showing in Ottawa, probably, and still third place (and just one seat!) We will never elect a progressive mayor.

Was it actually better than 1990?

Yes, same seat.  The CBC commentator was wrong yesterday.  She said the NDP had held Ottawa Centre 'for 30 years (or so) up until 1995'. In fact, Evelyn Gigantes was defeated in 1987 and reelected in 1990.

[136or142]

Have I put any ridings in obviously wrong regions?  I didn't really know what to do with Haldimand-Norfolk and Huron-Bruce.

[136or142]

Have I put any ridings in obviously wrong regions?  I didn't really know what to do with Haldimand-Norfolk and Huron-Bruce.

Mind breaking them down by the EKOS regions?

Here:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/


Regions broken down on a map:

I'll get around to it if nobody does it before me.  That said, I don't really like their regional breakdowns (too many regions and I think the ridings around Lake Simcoe should be recognized as a separate region - Cottage Country.)  In addition to that region being the strongest Conservative, it's also the strongest Green.  I think 'Cottage Country' is clearly its own region (it could also be called Central Ontario.)

In the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock riding, the Greens received 20% of the vote.

I also think the idea of Nipissing being in 'the North' is really stretching things.


A couple of other points
1.In the last election, the Liberals received, I think, 38.6% of the vote (close to that anyway,) in this election, the Liberals received over 30% of the vote in just 18 of the 124 ridings.

2.The NDP lost 9 ridings by less than 5% of the vote, but they won 7 ridings (including Oshawa!) by less than 5% of the vote.  I don't know if that's a wash or not in close ridings, but if you're going to look at the narrow losses, I think you should also take into account the narrow wins.

It's odd that the NDP barely held on to Oshawa when they improved so much in Whitby (not sure about Durham.)  The Whitby NDP candidate was nominated a long time before the election, I don't know if that played a role or not in the NDP doing relatively well there.

[136or142]

Don't get me wrong - from a purely partisan point of view, the NDP did great - they went from a third party to official opposition, have 40 MPPs and a chance to prove themselves while the Liberals are decimated.  But, from an ABF point of view, they didn't do so well.  And really, as Kelly McParland (certainly no friend of the NDP) said in the National Post today, if they can't win against a Doug Ford and a wiped out Liberal party, when do they think they will take over?

After 4 years of proving themselves in opposition and during the same 4 years, of Doug Ford proving he can't govern.  (Of course, conservative propagandist hacks like McParland will do their best to convince everybody to disbelieve the evidence.)

I also wonder about Horwath's leadership in the sense that she's been the NDP leader for nearly 10 years.  There does tend to be a 'best before date' for leaders of about 10 years.  Horwath maybe though is a bit fresher than her actual years because people maybe didn't pay attention to her for her first several years as NDP leader.

[136or142]

Don't get me wrong - from a purely partisan point of view, the NDP did great - they went from a third party to official opposition, have 40 MPPs and a chance to prove themselves while the Liberals are decimated.  But, from an ABF point of view, they didn't do so well.  And really, as Kelly McParland (certainly no friend of the NDP) said in the National Post today, if they can't win against a Doug Ford and a wiped out Liberal party, when do they think they will take over?

After 4 years of proving themselves in opposition and during the same 4 years, of Doug Ford proving he can't govern.  (Of course, conservative propagandist hacks like McParland will do their best to convince everybody to disbelieve the evidence.)

You haven't even given him a chance yet. This sort of attitude is why people voted for him, honestly. Not like you give Trump or any other conservative a chance either.  Cue the rants about FPTP.

Personally I'm tired of hearing this 'this is why people voted for him' crap.  
1.We who knew Trump would be a disaster were right and the idiots who voted for him were wrong.

2.I'm not even a New Democrat, but Ford especially was saying 'if the NDP win it would be a disaster' during the campaign, and the NDP hadn't even won yet.  

So, take your 'anti elitism' or whatever, and shove it.  I'm an educated person with, I think, a decent intelligence, and if using my God given brain to judge how things are very likely to turn out is a problem, then we have very big real problems.

[136or142]

What is it with you people and your bizarre hypotheticals? Horwath led the NDP to their best result in over 25 years. She's safe. Atlas would probably be speculating about kicking Diefenbaker out in 1957 too

Diefenbaker was paranoid, they should have kicked him out in 1957!

[136or142]

I expected Guelph to be won by the Greens, but not with nearly 50% of the vote, and the NDP in third place.

Schreiner was a double-barrelled Lib-NDP proxy; so what's so surprising, under the circumstance?  

This was mentioned back in B.C in 2001, when there was a hope that the NDP would win 3 seats and the Green Party 1, with official party status at 4 seats.

Is there any way the Greens and the Liberals could team up in the legislature to give themselves official party status?

[136or142]

In the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock riding, the Greens received 20% of the vote.

Parry Sound-Muskoka.

Sorry, my mistake.

[136or142]

Any possibility these Federal Liberal M.Ps might run for the provincial leadership:
1.Mark Holland
2.Francesco Sorbara
3.Yasmin Ratansi
4.Adam Vaughan
5.Navdeep Bains
6.Kate Young
7.Bob Nault
8.Kim Rudd
9.Shaun Chen
10.John Oliver

[136or142]

Have I put any ridings in obviously wrong regions?  I didn't really know what to do with Haldimand-Norfolk and Huron-Bruce.

Mind breaking them down by the EKOS regions?

Here:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/


Regions broken down on a map:

I'll get around to it if nobody does it before me.  That said, I don't really like their regional breakdowns (too many regions and I think the ridings around Lake Simcoe should be recognized as a separate region - Cottage Country.)  In addition to that region being the strongest Conservative, it's also the strongest Green.  I think 'Cottage Country' is clearly its own region (it could also be called Central Ontario.)

In the Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock riding, the Greens received 20% of the vote.

I also think the idea of Nipissing being in 'the North' is really stretching things.


A couple of other points
1.In the last election, the Liberals received, I think, 38.6% of the vote (close to that anyway,) in this election, the Liberals received over 30% of the vote in just 18 of the 124 ridings.

2.The NDP lost 9 ridings by less than 5% of the vote, but they won 7 ridings (including Oshawa!) by less than 5% of the vote.  I don't know if that's a wash or not in close ridings, but if you're going to look at the narrow losses, I think you should also take into account the narrow wins.

It's odd that the NDP barely held on to Oshawa when they improved so much in Whitby (not sure about Durham.)  The Whitby NDP candidate was nominated a long time before the election, I don't know if that played a role or not in the NDP doing relatively well there.

Hey, I spent a lot of time thinking about these regions. And the idea that Nipissing being in the north 'as stretching things' is borderline offensive to this son of a North Bayer.

And 'cottage country' generally only refers to Parry Sound-Muskoka, and usually just the Muskoka party (though there are cottages in Parry Sound of course, including my family's!)

Sorry!

1.That Nipisses me off!  

2.https://cottagelife.com/outdoors/top-misconceptions-about-ontario-cottage-country/

If you’ve got a cottage in Simcoe County—the area that includes Barrie and Collingwood—or pretty much anywhere close to Georgian Bay, you can ski just about every day of the winter and never run out of hills. Ice fishing, snowmobiling, skating…we could go on and on.



I'll redo the regional results when all the polls are in.  There are still 4 polls outstanding last time I checked.

[136or142]

A triumph for Doug Ford personally and the PCs - even though Ontario almost always votes against mid-term federal incumbents, he won very well and held off a strong challenger in the NDP. Ford has a mandate to lead that is very hard to challenge. Both NDP and Liberals seriously under-performed. One collapsed, the other failed to exploit that collapse to form an alternative government, by a larger margin than expected. It looks like desire to change policy outweighed desire to just change the head of government.

Generally it seems the prospects for progressive coalitions are pretty poor at the moment compared to a few years ago, and they weren't even very good then. Wynne was probably as far as you can go in that direction in North America or perhaps even Europe. It looks like passion among the young has been outweighed by compassion fatigue among the middle-aged and old who've been living through the crisis. The coalitions split. It looks like immigration isn't even necessary for this to happen, as any old source of resentment will suffice.

Although one shouldn't automatically transpose learnings between jurisdictions, there can't be zero relevant transposition between Ontario and nearby areas of the United States that will elect representatives in late 2018 under the shadow of Trump.

A mandate to do what though?  Ford won by promising that he would cut the deficit, increase spending and cut taxes all through 'finding efficiencies.'  He said that not a single job would be cut.

Of course, this is why I wrote above that hacks like Kelly McParland will try to convince people that Ford isn't a disaster.  I have no doubt there will be all sorts of commentary within short order along the lines of "Everybody who voted knew all along that Ford couldn't balance the budget merely through finding efficiencies. The people of Ontario really voted for Ford and the P.Cs because they wanted a change in the direction of the government, not because they really believed this silly white lie."

[136or142]

A triumph for Doug Ford personally and the PCs - even though Ontario almost always votes against mid-term federal incumbents, he won very well and held off a strong challenger in the NDP. Ford has a mandate to lead that is very hard to challenge. Both NDP and Liberals seriously under-performed. One collapsed, the other failed to exploit that collapse to form an alternative government, by a larger margin than expected. It looks like desire to change policy outweighed desire to just change the head of government.

Generally it seems the prospects for progressive coalitions are pretty poor at the moment compared to a few years ago, and they weren't even very good then. Wynne was probably as far as you can go in that direction in North America or perhaps even Europe. It looks like passion among the young has been outweighed by compassion fatigue among the middle-aged and old who've been living through the crisis. The coalitions split. It looks like immigration isn't even necessary for this to happen, as any old source of resentment will suffice.

Although one shouldn't automatically transpose learnings between jurisdictions, there can't be zero relevant transposition between Ontario and nearby areas of the United States that will elect representatives in late 2018 under the shadow of Trump.

A mandate to do what though?  Ford won by promising that he would cut the deficit, increase spending and cut taxes all through 'finding efficiencies.'  He said that not a single job would be cut.

Of course, this is why I wrote above that hacks like Kelly McParland will try to convince people that Ford isn't a disaster.  I have no doubt there will be all sorts of commentary within short order along the lines of "Everybody who voted knew all along that Ford couldn't balance the budget merely through finding efficiencies. The people of Ontario really voted for Ford and the P.Cs because they wanted a change in the direction of the government, not because they really believed this silly white lie."

A mandate to personally lead the PCs rather than be replaced by a more reliable person, I suppose. I tend to believe mandates for specific policy promises are very hard to validate, compared to personal mandates, and mostly policies are judged in retrospect. But yes, at a certain point, we have to credit voters with not believing stupid political promises. What I mean is that, I don't think anyone will stop voting PCs if they cut a single job or fail to cut the deficit. They might do so if there are big spending cuts. Their prerogative. I certainly don't believe it, but nobody seems to disagree that Wynne -> PC is a bigger change than Wynne -> NDP.

I think there was a willful blindness among the Ontario electorate to believe Ford's obviously false promise. 

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

A Tory ain't no Liberal.

What if he changed his name to John Grit?

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

A Tory ain't no Liberal.

What if he changed his name to John Grit?

Who is John Grit?

'Tory' is the label for Conservative.  'Grit' is the label for Liberal, at least in Canada.

So, what if John 'Tory' changed his name to John 'Grit'?

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

Not exactly comparable; but the little issue that he was Ontario NDP Premier didn't dissuade Bob Rae from seeking the federal Liberal leadership;  (And even less exactly comparable: federal PC leader Jean Charest becoming Quebec Liberal Premier)

John Tory is the defacto Liberal mayor of Toronto. 

[136or142]

The Liberals would probably do well to look outside of the provincial caucus for a leader.  There are a number of federal liberals who could be considered, and what about John Tory?

.........

Why would the Liberals look at John Tory for leader?

Because, as far as I can tell, he is the highest profile *liberal* in Ontario.

But he's not a Liberal. Not even close. He's supported the Conservatives both Federally and Provincially since at least 1988, and probably before that too.

Oh and of course, there is the little issue that he was Ontario PC leader.

Not exactly comparable; but the little issue that he was Ontario NDP Premier didn't dissuade Bob Rae from seeking the federal Liberal leadership;  (And even less exactly comparable: federal PC leader Jean Charest becoming Quebec Liberal Premier)

John Tory is the defacto Liberal mayor of Toronto. 

Only because there was no Liberal candidate for mayor in 2014, and for some reason (Ok, strategic voting to stop Ford) Liberals/progressives didn't want to vote for Olivia Chow.

You think?  My understanding is that he has been embraced by the Liberals since becoming mayor.