UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Clyde1998]

https://twitter.com/ljayes/status/1205205524352045056

The dream is alive, boys

That has 'expectations management' written all over it

This. It probably does suggest that the result may be somewhat closer than the MRP projections were showing, which is not impossible given that they can't deal with local factors.

[Clyde1998]

Yas, BBC is bringing the giant 'steppingstone' hexmap back.

https://twitter.com/fulelo/status/1205224259200659461

Ugh. These hexmaps are horrible to look at. I prefer the Electoral Calculus 'equal area' map, as it holds the shape of the country together better: link

[Clyde1998]

Yas, BBC is bringing the giant 'steppingstone' hexmap back.

https://twitter.com/fulelo/status/1205224259200659461

Ugh. These hexmaps are horrible to look at. I prefer the Electoral Calculus 'equal area' map, as it holds the shape of the country together better: link

Unfortunately we will just have to agree to disagree then.

At least you're map has constituency names on it so you can actually find constituencies quite easily.

[Clyde1998]

Police Scotland have received multiple complaints of alleged electoral fraud in East Renfrewshire involving the Scottish Conservative interim leader Jackson Carlaw after he tweeted that he voted by post on 30 November and tweeted today that he voted in person. He later claimed that he was casting two proxy votes for constituents today.

[Clyde1998]

EXIT POLL
Con 368 (+51)
Lab 191 (-71)
SNP 55 (+20)
Lib 13 (+1)
PC 3 (-1)
Grn 1 (NC)
Brx 0 (NC)
NI 18 (NC)
Oth 1

[Clyde1998]

I heard the SNP is gaining seats from the LibDems, maybe even Swinson is vulnerable?

If the SNP are on 55 seats, they've probably won everything except Orkney and Shetland (Lib), Edinburgh South (Lab), Berwickshire (Con) and Dumfriesshire (Con). Swinson is probably gone.

[Clyde1998]

Goodbye, United Kingdom of four countries.

Probably not. There isn't gonna be an Indyref 2 if the SNP isn't in government.

I imagine the Supreme Court will be deciding that issue, tbh, as it's legally untested as to whether the Scottish Government could call an independence referendum without the UK Government's consent. The Section 30 order for the 2014 referendum was only done to keep it out of the Supreme Court.

[Clyde1998]

BBC Scotland: "The Exit Poll suggests the Lib Dems will lose all four of their seats in Scotland, including Orkney and Shetland, where they recently won a by-election. Labour will have one seat in Scotland and the Conservatives will have three."

Orkney and Shetland has been Liberal/Whig since 1826, with the exception of brief Conservative spells between 1835-37 and 1935-50.

[Clyde1998]

Rule one of Scottish projections: they have a extreme MOE compared to UK seats. I would not be surprised to see the SNP far lower than this exit poll. Last time they called the Lib-Dems to win Gordon in the exit poll.

That was partly down to realignment of unionist voting - basically all the Lib Dem vote moved to the Tories. I'd be very interested how many people they survey in Scotland and Wales - as it's very difficult to extrapolate English data to Scotland and Wales due to the presence of an additional major party (and separate issues in Scotland).

[Clyde1998]

Looks like the Tories are doing badly in Remainer constituencies in London, projected to lose Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Putney an almost certain Labour gain, Kensington an almost certain Labour hold. Better than expected for those ones, shows this is a huge Brexit realignment.

I was looking at some of the British Social Attitudes Survey data and it may be more than a Brexit realignment. It could be a realignment from left-right economic policies to authoritarian-libertarian social policies (of which the Brexit result was basically decided by) - ie. this realignment may continue beyond the resolution of Brexit.

[Clyde1998]

RECOUNT: Blyth Valley.

[Clyde1998]

Newcastle Central
Lab - 21,568 - 57.55%
Con - 9,290 - 24.79%
Lib - 2,709 - 7.23%
Brx - 2,542 - 6.78%
Grn - 1,365 - 3.64%

Swing - 3.75% from Lab to Con

[Clyde1998]

Houghton and Sunderland South - Lab HOLD - 10.96% swing from Lab to Con

[Clyde1998]

10.2% swing in Blyth Valley; Brexit Party vote share greater than the majority.

[Clyde1998]

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1205270229892374529

[Clyde1998]

Ruth Davidson on ITV seems convinced its mainly Labour that have collapsed to the SNP and that the Tories and Lib Dems have done okay. Take with a grain of salt but let's see.

Makes sense given the pre-election polling, and there may have been a late swing to the SNP too partly based on tactical voting.

IIRC, it was 2017 Labour and Lib Dem voters who were most undecided in Scotland prior to the election - probably caught between Brexit and independence. YouGov's MRP data showed most Conservative seats in Scotland as marginal - it's possible that those voters may have swung behind the SNP in Conservative-held seats.

[Clyde1998]

Jeremy Corbyn is gone at least.  That's one silver-lining from tonight. 

Don't be so sure.


Also, I am pretty much sure that in 2017 those results were coming faster. Is it because of weather?

Usually a slower count indicates a higher turnout, but turnout seems to be down about 3% so far. Might just be less counting staff available due to the proximity to Christmas.

[Clyde1998]

SNP gain Rutherglen & Hamilton West from Labour

[Clyde1998]

No idea what's happening on Channel 4:
https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1205291535539027968

[Clyde1998]

If the actual result is worse than the exit poll, they could be out of power for the next 10 years.

With an electorate as a volatile and bad-tempered as this I would avoid making assumptions like that.

Particularly as the aftereffects of Brexit may have a radical impact on voting intentions, particularly if there are major negative effects.

[Clyde1998]

The Conservatives have crossed the official threshold for a majority.

[Clyde1998]

Is Edinburgh South a wealthy urban seat? Labour's kept it since 1987 but before then it seems to have been quite Unionist/Conservative.

It's a very odd seat. Most wealthy seats in Scotland in the 80s were professionals working in the public sector - so were in a much more similar boat as the miners, ship builders, steel workers, etc. in the working class areas of Scotland/Britain than the professionals in England, who were largely working in the private sector. They feared losing their jobs in the same way as the working class did.

It's remained Labour in recent years largely as a result of anti-SNP tactical voting and a popular local MP. It was almost taken by the Lib Dems in 2005 and 2010 though.

The equivalent Scottish Parliament seat voted Labour in the constituency vote and Conservative in the regional list vote in 2016 (Labour were third on the list there, IIRC, showing the effects of tactical voting).

[Clyde1998]

In reply to the above query, Labour lost a few Scottish deposits at the 2015 GE.

Thanks. I've found four so far in Scotland.

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
Angus
Banff & Buchan
Berwickshire, Roxborough, and Selkirk

So all rural areas with likely little factory workers.

There are six - Moray and North East Fife in addition to that list. Labour were very weak in those seats even at their 'recent' Scottish peak in 1997, when they won about the same share of the vote as the SNP did this time (IIRC, Moray was their best result of the six in 1997 and they got less than 20% of the vote).

[Clyde1998]

Woke Twitter leftists analysing the results, basically:

"If only we had called those Brexiters racist a few more times, we would have won."

'We'll convince people to vote for us by telling them they're idiots!'

[Clyde1998]

However, it could become one if Labour do not respond correctly. There is already a grassroots campaign backing Richard Burgon...

I saw that on Twitter. I thought it was a parody. 😅