North Carolina Or Georgia

[Roronoa D. Law]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

More young voters in Atlanta, and Atlanta has more pull than The Research Triangle or Charlotte for NC. Also fewer ancestral D rural areas that aren't already Republican in GA.

Not to mention Hillary literally did better than Obama's '08 performance in Georgia with little investment, meanwhile NC went rightwards despite investment through the roof.

Hillary didn't do better than Obama.

GA: Obama got 46.9% (08) and 45.39% (12) while Hillary got 45.35%

Yes, but 3rd party vote much higher in 2016.

Yes, which took away from the Republican vote total. Johnson votes more than likely would have voted for a different Republican candidate than Trump. The Democrat vote totally in GA hasn't changed, it was the Republican vote totally that did. That leads me to believe that around 45ish is currently the top end of what the Dems can get in GA.

Stacey Abrams would like a word.

We are talking about at the Presidental level.

But if you apply your logic then Republicans can win in MD and MA at the Presidental level.   

While Presidential and Governors certainly aren't the same thing, the type of candidate does matter.   Abrahams in Georgia is closer to your average national Democrat from an ideological standpoint than Hogan & Baker are to your average national Republican.  A more apt comparison to Hogan & Baker winning is someone like Edwards in Louisiana.

This is true. And you will see she didn't improve on Democrats numbers outside of Atlanta. But because she is from Atlanta and had ties to the city she was able to run up her numbers there. While that could happen in a Presidental race if the candidate has ties to the city. It isn't going to happen for Biden unless he has a very good ground game there.   

Forget about Abrams, do you really think Trump will do better than Kemp in Atlanta of all places?

[Roronoa D. Law]

I really don't understand the argument for Georgia voting to the left of North Carolina. For Biden to win Georgia, he'll have to be benefitting from an Obama-level black turnout and over-performing Obama and Clinton among southern white voters. That's not out of the question, but I don't see a scenario where he does well enough among those demographics to win Georgia while simultaneously losing North Carolina, where there hasn't been nearly the exodus of white voters to the GOP.

More young voters in Atlanta, and Atlanta has more pull than The Research Triangle or Charlotte for NC. Also fewer ancestral D rural areas that aren't already Republican in GA.

Not to mention Hillary literally did better than Obama's '08 performance in Georgia with little investment, meanwhile NC went rightwards despite investment through the roof.

Hillary didn't do better than Obama.

GA: Obama got 46.9% (08) and 45.39% (12) while Hillary got 45.35%

Yes, but 3rd party vote much higher in 2016.

Yes, which took away from the Republican vote total. Johnson votes more than likely would have voted for a different Republican candidate than Trump. The Democrat vote totally in GA hasn't changed, it was the Republican vote totally that did. That leads me to believe that around 45ish is currently the top end of what the Dems can get in GA.

Stacey Abrams would like a word.

We are talking about at the Presidental level.

But if you apply your logic then Republicans can win in MD and MA at the Presidental level.   

While Presidential and Governors certainly aren't the same thing, the type of candidate does matter.   Abrahams in Georgia is closer to your average national Democrat from an ideological standpoint than Hogan & Baker are to your average national Republican.  A more apt comparison to Hogan & Baker winning is someone like Edwards in Louisiana.

This is true. And you will see she didn't improve on Democrats numbers outside of Atlanta. But because she is from Atlanta and had ties to the city she was able to run up her numbers there. While that could happen in a Presidental race if the candidate has ties to the city. It isn't going to happen for Biden unless he has a very good ground game there.   

Forget about Abrams, do you really think Trump will do better than Kemp in Atlanta of all places?

The question isn't will he do better. The question is will Biden get the voter turn-out in the Atlanta area as Abrams did.

It's a presidential election why would Biden not get higher turnout in Atlanta.