Nate Silver believes Democrats will not suffer from low turnout in the 2022 midterms (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 25, 2024, 10:43:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Nate Silver believes Democrats will not suffer from low turnout in the 2022 midterms (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Nate Silver believes Democrats will not suffer from low turnout in the 2022 midterms  (Read 1585 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,199


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« on: April 09, 2021, 02:56:53 PM »

https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-rankings-may-2009-edition/
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,199


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2021, 03:27:09 PM »


Quote
A Jim Bunning retirement would help Republicans — but perhaps not as much as you’d think in a state where Democrats still have a significant registration advantage.

Quote
Lincoln raised $1.7 million in the first quarter, which may further reduce the mostly-theoretical possibility that Republicans decide to mount a serious challenge to her.

Amazing.

More gems:
Quote
(Missouri) increasingly feels like a lean Democratic race.

Quote
A Republican comeback is unlikely if the uber-conservative Pat Toomey is the Republican nominee.

Quote
A nice 1Q fundraising haul by Dorgan reduces the already-slim chance that popular GOP governor John Hoeven might decide to challenge him.

Also Indiana was seen as one of the safest. And Lol at Toomey being considered "uber-conservative".

Moral of the story: Politics can be VERY unpredictable.

The Missouri prediction was really dumb given the fact that Democrats barely won that race in a year like 2006 and that seat in question was held by the republicans
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,199


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2021, 03:40:52 PM »

Love the Nate Silver atlas-level analysis.

The fact that Ds are consistently gaining among college educated voters means that there’s a chance this is true, at least to an extent. I think a 2014-esque win for Rs is unlikely. However, I’m also not seeing much in the way of statistical evidence that low propensity D voters will show up. Coalition changes have helped Ds in this regard but low propensity voters still make up a bigger portion of their base.


Some atlas threads from 2009:


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=94194.0

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=95338.0;viewResults


Some atlas threads from 2005:


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=21417.0

Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,199


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #3 on: April 10, 2021, 01:24:07 AM »

I think a No Wave Result would most likely result in something like the Republicans picking up 12 seats in the House and their being no net change in the senate(Republicans pick up NH and Democrats pick up PA) .


It is far easier though to see Republicans winning both houses than the Democrats winning both houses
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 12 queries.