GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[OSR stands with Israel]

Walker is exactly the type of recruit to blow a winnable election in a swing state, but this year's national environment renders this a moot point.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1378610781604999168

If you watch 2014 coverage you will see that republicans outperformed expectations in Georgia that year . Most people thought Nunn/Carter at the very least would force a runoff and they didn’t

[OSR stands with Israel]

Do you really think a klansman came up to Herschel Walker and said he was wrong because of Herschel? Does that make sense? Note that John Lewis was from a different generation and was admired across the aisle. Walker… isn’t.

I am 100% certain Herschel Walker was more widely admired than John Lewis for a time, especially in Georgia. (That doesn't mean I applaud this fact or believe politicians' stories.)

lol

key word is was and star athletes are generally admired across the board. Like its probably very likely more people knew who Hershel Walker was than John Lewis in 1988

[OSR stands with Israel]

Scott Walker should have run this year so we would have had a great candidate named Walker in office.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Can't wait until the whole South goes Democratic again, as it was always meant to be. Georgia is just the first domino to fall (well, second after Virginia).

You guys aren’t winning TN SC AR AL LA anytime soon and TX is still 2-3 cycles  out from even being a purple state

[OSR stands with Israel]

I miss this Georgia:




The Reagan/Bush southern coalition was so awesome and was when southern politics was at its peak

[OSR stands with Israel]

I miss this Georgia:




The Reagan/Bush southern coalition was so awesome and was when southern politics was at its peak

You're still getting that Georgia - minus the 6-7 metro ATL counties since then that said "no".

Yah but I was obviously talking about the suburbs. The sunbelt suburbs that destroyed Jimmy Carter's hope's of recreating a new solid Democratic south and helped create the Republican Solid South.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Congratulations to you, Reverend Warnock! And congratulations to my Democratic friends on your marvelous overall performance in this cycle's midterm. 

It wasn't the partisan result I wanted, but I can at least take solace that y'all kept individuals such as Oz, Masters, Laxalt, and Walker away from Congress. 

Why Laxalt with the other 3 as he seemed like a pretty normie R.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope this further causes Trump to decline

[OSR stands with Israel]

Congratulations to you, Reverend Warnock! And congratulations to my Democratic friends on your marvelous overall performance in this cycle's midterm. 

It wasn't the partisan result I wanted, but I can at least take solace that y'all kept individuals such as Oz, Masters, Laxalt, and Walker away from Congress. 

Why Laxalt with the other 3 as he seemed like a pretty normie R.

Oh yeah, normie Rs are frequently arrested for assaulting a police officer.

Wait What

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope this further causes Trump to decline

Electorally or mentally?

Electorally of course

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope this further causes Trump to decline

Well, it certainly doesn't help! But I think this does put a bigger dent in Kemp ambitions than anything else. Hard for him to make a case when the state is turning blue under him.

Wouldn't this help Kemp though since he can point to how much he overperformed Walker

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope this further causes Trump to decline

Well, it certainly doesn't help! But I think this does put a bigger dent in Kemp ambitions than anything else. Hard for him to make a case when the state is turning blue under him.

Wouldn't this help Kemp though since he can point to how much he overperformed Walker

"I overperformed someone demonstrably stupid and embarrassing to my state" is a technical accomplishment, but it doesn't sound particularly impressive.

He won by Romney 2012 numbers despite how much the state has changed politically since then though

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hope this further causes Trump to decline

Well, it certainly doesn't help! But I think this does put a bigger dent in Kemp ambitions than anything else. Hard for him to make a case when the state is turning blue under him.

Wouldn't this help Kemp though since he can point to how much he overperformed Walker

"I overperformed someone demonstrably stupid and embarrassing to my state" is a technical accomplishment, but it doesn't sound particularly impressive.

He won by Romney 2012 numbers despite how much the state has changed politically since then though

But how would that go over with people like Noem and Desantis next to him.

DeSantis would beat him but I am not sure if Noem would.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/ChristianWalk1r/status/1600333540973248512


Would Doug Collins have won

[OSR stands with Israel]

I miss this Georgia:




The Reagan/Bush southern coalition was so awesome and was when southern politics was at its peak

You're still getting that Georgia - minus the 6-7 metro ATL counties since then that said "no".

Yah but I was obviously talking about the suburbs. The sunbelt suburbs that destroyed Jimmy Carter's hope's of recreating a new solid Democratic south and helped create the Republican Solid South.

Never forget!

Those Suburbs look great(The part of Georgia I would choose to live in) and of course 1980 also had this

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1980/11/18/the-end-of-the-talmadge-legend/2c99cd91-6365-4908-8248-84fd16d4d42d/

Mattingly taking down Talmadge but sadly he ended up only being a one termer

[OSR stands with Israel]

I miss this Georgia:




The Reagan/Bush southern coalition was so awesome and was when southern politics was at its peak

You're still getting that Georgia - minus the 6-7 metro ATL counties since then that said "no".

Yah but I was obviously talking about the suburbs. The sunbelt suburbs that destroyed Jimmy Carter's hope's of recreating a new solid Democratic south and helped create the Republican Solid South.

I am not sure Georgia in particular was necessarily mainly attracted to Reagan and Bush's fiscal conservativism. I can think of a few stronger reasons they turned against the GOP...

The suburbs went GOP first, the rurals went GOP later. Even in 1996 when Dole won, Clinton did pretty good in rural Georgia but it was the affluent suburbs that moved it Republican. It wasnt until W that the rural south become solid R

[OSR stands with Israel]

I can see how Warnock is such a charismatic leader of a church, and not just any church, but the church of MLK and John Lewis. I can see this guy as a presidential candidate in the future!

Would be ironic if the only two religious leaders to be president in the modern day were both democrats from Georgia

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump is taking this well.

Is that guy still talking?

I hope he does as the more he talks the more he self destructs. The key is though that the media and RDS and any of his primary opponents  must not take the bait and interrupt him while he is acting like this as that was the number 1 mistake of 2016.  They should take heed of the famous Napoleon quote of “ Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” this time .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems like my prediction wasn't that far off. Congrats to the Rev, who ran an incredible campaign.

Are there any crosstabs already? What percentage of the black vote did Warnock win? I think it's fair to say that once again black women in particular delivered this amazing result!

Also Kemp did better with the African American vote then Walker did . This once again shows that this entire idea of the way to make inroads with a specific demographic is too pick someone from that demographic is utterly false .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump is taking this well.

Is that guy still talking?

I hope he does as the more he talks the more he self destructs. The key is though that the media and RDS and any of his primary opponents  must not take the bait and interrupt him while he is acting like this as that was the number 1 mistake of 2016.  They should take heed of the famous Napoleon quote of “ Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” this time .

He’s still loved by the 40% of the rabid base. By the time the rest coalesce it’ll be too late.

DeSantis pretty much crushes the rest of the field while none of the non Trump 2016 candidates could do so. For Trump to win he needs to get over 50% this time

[OSR stands with Israel]

Seems like my prediction wasn't that far off. Congrats to the Rev, who ran an incredible campaign.

Are there any crosstabs already? What percentage of the black vote did Warnock win? I think it's fair to say that once again black women in particular delivered this amazing result!

Also Kemp did better with the African American vote then Walker did . This once again shows that this entire idea of the way to make inroads with a specific demographic is too pick someone from that demographic is utterly false .

It always was, in both directions. Obama did better with white voters than other Democrats. Even remember that Hillary was initially leading among blacks in 2007, and only after Obama won Iowa, a predominantly white states, African Americans began flocking towards him after they were convinced he can win nationally.

Oh I 100% disagree but that really doesn't stop political pundits from saying otherwise. The best way to look at this is seeing how pundits cover VP selections as when they analyze potential picks they always seem to jump to the conclusion that if a pick is from a certain demographic they will help the nominee with that demographic.

Like BTW when Kamala was picked , so many pundits assumed she would help Biden with Indian Americans but Biden ended up doing worse with Indian Americans than either Hillary or Obama did.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How did it grow from 60% in the general to 78% in the runoff . Are higher propensity Asian voters more likely to be democratic than lower propensity ones .

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

I'm not an expert on Asian voting patterns, but it actually doesn't surprise me Chinese Americans voted the most R. Here in Forsyth at least, it seems a disproportionate number are rather successful small business owners, and the folks I know in this group are all heavily R. The more D trending Asians (of all ethnic groups) I know tend to be in professional services (e.g., healthcare, legal, higher education).

How did it grow from 60% in the general to 78% in the runoff . Are higher propensity Asian voters more likely to be democratic than lower propensity ones

I’d take AALDEF with a grain of salt, they seemed way too D for 2016-PRES and were possivly too R for 2020-PRES (they indicated more willingness to vote for 45 among Koreans, Cambodians, and Vietnamese than my reading of precinct level results would’ve suggested). My guess would be decreased turnout from functional GOPers and Walker turning off Indies more than usual?

Btw If I lived in Georgia I’d have voted for Walker in round 1 and wouldn’t have voted in the runoff so maybe it might just be Asian Republicans who didn’t like Walker and with the senate already decided , there was no real incentive for those types of voters to turn out