Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[OSR stands with Israel]

GOD DANM IT.

Wisconsin to win statewide requires like 4 things to go well for the Dems and it's so frustrating.

Still better than Florida...

I was stunned on election night when DeSantis won while Walker lost. I just didnt believe that would happen

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Neubauer wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely D, declare WI a Democratic-trending/permanent Democratic state and call the 2020 race for the Democratic candidate.

If Hagedorn wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely R, declare WI a Republican-trending/permanent R state and call the 2020 race for Trump.

RATINGS CHANGES becuz of speshul electionz:

PA: Toss up -> Safe D
WI: Toss up -> Safe R
CT: Safe D -> Lean D
OK: Safe R -> Lean R

Well, no, but tonight does reinforce the "PA will be the easiest Trump state for Dems to win back" narrative. 

I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

If Dems lose WI in 2020 its probably over as AZ and WI will probably vote the same way in 2020. It is my belief that the election will come down to those two states (WI and AZ)

[OSR stands with Israel]

^That’s a lot better than his national average. Regardless of whether Trump wins the state again or not (in a close race, I’d be surprised if he didn’t), it’s pretty clear that WI will vote to the right of the nation as a whole and have an R PVI after 2020.

Frankly, I'm shocked it's even that high. I expect Trump to do worse in WOW than Walker and underperform his winning margin in that region in 2016. He must be consolidating support in the rural parts of the state or the Fox Valley. Either way, my state is unpredictable. WI has clearly reverted back to its pre-Obama years when presidential elections were dead heats. It's sad to know that another Democratic presidential candidate may not be as popular as Obama was in WI.

True, but the major difference between the pre-Trump years and now is that the WI of 2019 is a dead heat even as Democrats have a sizable advantage in the popular vote, which was generally not the case in the past, with the notable exception of 2000, when Gore won it by 0.2% and it was (barely, however) more Republican than the nation overall. It’s not that WI is close per se, it’s the fact that it’s close with Democrats leading by 5+ points nationally that is a sign that WI hasn’t reverted back to its pre-Obama years.

That said, he still needs those numbers to be a little better than 46/52 on election day. A 48/51 split might be enough.

Yeah, I think people on this forum are still way underestimating Trump's reelection odds. It doesn't matter what his popular vote numbers are as long as he ekes out wins in the states he needs. As long as he wins WI, AZ, FL, GA, and NE-2 again he wins the White House, 270-268. And if you put a gun to my head now, I would guess that he's probably narrowly favored in each of those places individually. Maybe not NE-2, but there's nothing stopping the Nebraska legislature from redistricting before 2020 or just straight up repealing the Electoral Vote split law entirely. In fact, if I were the national Republican Party I would be lobbying hard for them to do that ASAP since a 269-269 tie is a very realistic possibility.

Wouldnt Maine do the same thing then

[OSR stands with Israel]

Come on WI voters , don’t allow Scott Walker’s legacy to be completely trashed .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Come on WI voters, allow Scott Walker’s legacy to be completely trashed .

So true king.

Ironically,  I don't think the court election will have an impact on much of the conservative policies which got Walker his notewortiness - unless you automatically assume a redrawn map which at best resembles Michigan would lead to a undoing of them. The election is seemingly fought over issues both older to wisconsin and more national in scope.

Right to Work and Regulatory reform may be ruled as unconstitutional

[OSR stands with Israel]

Come in WI rurals , vote like how rural areas do in other states please

[OSR stands with Israel]

Come in WI rurals , vote like how rural areas do in other states please

I never took you for one to support 1849 abortion bans?

I care far more about maintaining right to work laws , and Walker’s regulatory reform laws than I do about abortion laws

[OSR stands with Israel]

Come in WI rurals , vote like how rural areas do in other states please

I never took you for one to support 1849 abortion bans?

I care far more about maintaining right to work laws , and Walker’s regulatory reform laws than I do about abortion laws

But do you care more about right to work than democracy? Dan Kelly is an election denier.

Kelly would just keep the status quo in WI so this is just alarmism

[OSR stands with Israel]

That’s all, folks!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1643428168710201345?s=20

Scott Walker Legacy now  will be erased . Stupid stupid Trumpists for not voting for the other Republican who could have had a better chance of winning this race and preserving this great legacy

[OSR stands with Israel]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

[OSR stands with Israel]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

NV isn’t long gone lol but anyway if Nebraska Republicans didn’t play it safe in redistricting we could have gotten 269 without any of WI/MI/PA.

Anyway I said want not that it was possible

[OSR stands with Israel]

What is the last off-year that an incumbent party has done so consistently well in?

Probably Bush in his first term

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is just a massive disaster and man only if Kelly didn’t win the primary .

[OSR stands with Israel]

Man, those "nobody will care about Dobbs except for partisans" takes have aged like milk.

I didn’t expect the republicans to handle this issue so incompetently . Turns out they handled it just like they did with Obamacare in 2017

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wtf is this? Lol!

The so called populists in the party’s playbook for “winning”. The fact is the Republican establishment does a far better job at choosing winners like 2021 VA showed

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cope harder

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1687190869814755330

Scott Walker's legacy is gonna be wiped out now ugh.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cope harder

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1687190869814755330

Scott Walker's legacy is gonna be wiped out now ugh.

Best possible timeline

That would have been Romney winning in 2012

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cope harder

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1687190869814755330

Scott Walker's legacy is gonna be wiped out now ugh.

Best possible timeline

That would have been Romney winning in 2012

You opinions are usually the things I say as jokes, but this may be true. Democrats keeping the senate in 2014? Maybe even expand their majority? Democrats likely winning back the house? All this allowing whatever democrat wallops him in 2016 a comfortable majorities in both chambers to pass a “radical socialist agenda”. Sounds pretty alright to me.

The Democrats arent keeping the Senate in 2014 and given that Romney was tailor made for the 2010s GOP house map, the Dems arent winning the House either. Given that Hillary would still be dodged by the email investigation, Romney likely comfortably beats her for reelection too.

2018 yeah Democrats probably do take back both houses but the GOP may have a chance of holding the WH in 2020 depending how Romney handled COVID and getting a historic third term.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cope harder

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1687190869814755330

Scott Walker's legacy is gonna be wiped out now ugh.

Best possible timeline

That would have been Romney winning in 2012

You opinions are usually the things I say as jokes, but this may be true. Democrats keeping the senate in 2014? Maybe even expand their majority? Democrats likely winning back the house? All this allowing whatever democrat wallops him in 2016 a comfortable majorities in both chambers to pass a “radical socialist agenda”. Sounds pretty alright to me.

The Democrats arent keeping the Senate in 2014 and given that Romney was tailor made for the 2010s GOP house map, the Dems arent winning the House either. Given that Hillary would still be dodged by the email investigation, Romney likely comfortably beats her for reelection too.

2018 yeah Democrats probably do take back both houses but the GOP may have a chance of holding the WH in 2020 depending how Romney handled COVID and getting a historic third term.

Huh?

Well not really that historic but only the 2nd time it would have happened since 1952.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If WI's Map is undemocratic than you guys should also agree that NV's map is also undemocratic.