Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[Beagle]

This mess has been brewing for a while and you have done an admirable job of explaining its origins. But I'm confused about the constitutional situation now and the consequences.

The literal reading of art. 89 of your constitution indicates that Iohannis is allowed to not dissolve parliament after 60 days from the first failed government proposal etc. I can't see any provision for parliament dissolving itself and the calling of snap elections without the President's cooperation. So if I understand correctly, Iohannis could nominate a series of unconfirmable PM candidates for the duration of the parliament term and maintain the Citu government in place as caretakers... but a Citu government that will include the USR ministers, since I don't believe that there is a majority in place to vote for their replacement. This is obviously not a sustainable situation. Is any parliamentary grouping more likely than another to suffer from apostasy (i.e. have a faction split)?

[Beagle]

As amply demonstrated by the Bulgarian parties, to expect rationality in politics is somewhat irrational. However, as hard as I try, I fail to see what's in it for PSD to prop up an ailing Citu government. Surely even if they were to revive USL (and I can't see this being popular with the PSD rank-and-file), they will demand the prime ministership, maybe not for Ciolacu, but for somebody associated with the party - especially with the EU recovery plan funds coming round soon-ish.

You mentioned a potential Dragnea comeback - is it realistic?

[Beagle]

The alternative would be either [b]PNL governing by itself indefinitely[/b] or Citu going away and being replaced by someone better (that is a given because anyone would be better), meaning the government may start recovering. However, the electoral costs of such a move and the boost it would give AUR and other splinters (would it not be hilarious if both Dragnea and Ponta come back?) is too risky for them. Where I think this is headed is a compromise - PSD helps Citu delay the motion only until after the PNL Congress in exchange for money. But this may be too rational, as you have said.

That what I don't understand, though - once the motion of no confidence passes, PNL can govern indefinitely in the way that you pictured quite vividly here:

Citu and the PNL Ministers flailing around the Victoria Palace, unable to do anything while getting blamed by the people for the mounting crises

PSD have every reason to demand that they are the ones to determine how the 50 billion are to be distributed - they are the largest party, they can also call on AUR* in ways that PNL presumably can't (at least in order to keep up appearances), they are also apparently better than USR in the eyes of Iohannis.

* btw, is it conceivable at present that AUR and UDMR both support a government in some way?

Somehow I doubt that there is actual clamoring for octogenarian Melescanu's comeback and Dragnea will presumably attract only those PSD-ers who for one reason or another are out of the more lucrative positions, on the fringes of the party and/or are generally undesirable for the current leadership. And history shows that a party of, for and by the 'losers' in a struggle for party control generally flops miserably - unless, of course, Ciolacu gifts them a zombie USL to attack.

[Beagle]

So, the thing about the 50 billion is this - the proposal has already been passed through an Emergency Ordinance, bypassing Parliament, and will be applied unilaterally by the Development Ministry.

... well, that's one way to distribute 50 billion, I guess.

I see no compelling reason for the parties who want to prolong the government's life to take part in the sitting. Is there a quorum requirement for the vote of no confidence?

[Beagle]

A surprise, to be sure, but a welcome one. Is Cioloș expected to quit Brussels now? Is there anything in the grumblings about the electronic voting system?

[Beagle]

What happens with the 2022 budget now or will Romania dispense with such formalities?

[Beagle]

The 8+ votes that were not USR PLUS came from minorities or from the Orban wing?

[Beagle]

Apparently Ciolacu's decision to strike a deal with Iohannis has been...quite unpopular amongst the PSDers in the country as well as some central figures of the party, and he now had to impose an arbitrary time limit until February 2022 for PSD supporting a minority government. I am not sure he can walk back on this, especially given Dragnea waiting in the wings. So 2922 will be once again a fun year in Romania. 

USL revival is a done deal then? Huh, I would have expected PSD to at least let Iohannis squirm for longer.

Obviously a single poll is next to worthless, but does the eye-popping one with the Orban-wing-PNL at 11.5% and Cîțu-wing-PNL at 3% have any basis in the situation on the ground in your opinion?

[Beagle]

Hi RGM!
I was wondering if you have any comments about the rise and fall of BlueAir? They are crying foul about the government forcing them into bankruptcy, is there any truth in that?

[Beagle]

... A lot of former officers of the Securitate, the Communist secret police, especially those involved in the trade deals of Communist Romania, were allowed by Iliescu to turn into businessmen, and then monopolized the markets using their previous contacts. UGH. 30 years later, many of these people or their children are still in Forbes 500.

My admiration for the project, RGM, this is brilliant work, although I'm sure you're making agonizing choices what to include and what not in this 'executive summary'.

After reading the early part, though, I began wondering about agency in several meanings of the word. In my 'Old Right' circles, you'll find many people who readily attribute any ills in Bulgaria's present, past and future - up to and including your cat scratching up the furniture - to the old State Security apparatus, who malevolently control every party, the state functionaries and administration, major enterprises and, of course, the police and prosecutorship. These days even the rookies of the last State Security intake (1989) are approaching retirement age, but this omnipotent image lingers on.

However, it is an indisputable fact that the Bulgarian State Security apparatus and its leaders who served the BSP loyally until 2001 or so massively infiltrated the dissident movement towards the tail end of Communism and, subsequently, the leadership of the anti-Communist/BSP catch-all party SDS (Union of Democratic Forces), and, arguably, formed DPS or at least channeled the Bulgarian Turks towards it. They also orchestrated events - too numerous to even list - that were meant to destroy the trust in SDS, its elected representatives and in democracy as such. I will not even venture into the economic side, but just sticking to the political:

- How much involvement did (ex-)Securitate people have with the opposition to Iliescu, at least in the early days?

- Which, if any, figures of the opposition camp were plants designed to syphon votes away from the 'organic' opposition (I am aware of Vadim Tudor, but I'm sure there were others)

- Would you say that the "integration in EU and NATO" was "a goal supported by almost the entire population" from 1989 or was there some watershed event, which moved public opinion - in Bulgaria this was the 1996-7 economic collapse, followed by the 1999 Kosovo war. Up to then, the ludicrous notion that Bulgaria could somehow declare neutrality - an Austria of the Balkans - was surprisingly popular and the official position of BSP and several other minor parties, not to mention the broad nostalgic support for the big brother mother Russia.

Strictly speaking, you guys did not give "permission to bomb Serbia" - the Aviano to Serbia  route does not overfly Romanian airspace, but you did give permission for NATO to use it. And, most importantly, you and us closed our airspace for Russia when they were trying to  move airborne forces to Pristina airport - and that, arguably, secured the NATO membership of Bulgaria and Romania.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the INSOMAR explanation, was about to ask since that poll made some noise down here too.

S.O.S. Romania seems to be, as per a cursory glance at their online presence, very much a one-woman-show (Șoșoacă), but what are the chief reasons it seems to be gaining popularity in those circles? Is it simply AUR not being radical enough for some people? Do S.O.S. even have any policy differences with AUR? Afaik, AUR also support irredentist claims.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the explanation. I understand that there are a lot of intangibles involved, but how would you place on the hysterical scale (pun intended) AUR, SOS, PNR and APP? Which is the most unhinged and which do you see as potential PSD governing partners?

Also: am I correct in presuming that REPER support does not even register in the polls and that's why they are nowhere to be found in recent surveys (maybe lumped in with the Others category)?

[Beagle]

INSCOP poll for the Presidential Election:

First Round
Mircea Geoana (IND) - 25.3%
Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 19.5%
George Simion (AUR) - 18.7%
Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) - 11.2%
Diana Sosoaca (SOS) - 10.1%

Second Round

Mircea Geoana (IND) - 63.5%
George Simion (AUR) - 36.5%

Marcel Ciolacu (PSD) - 58.8%
George Simion (AUR) - 41.2%

Nicolae Ciuca (PNL) - 52.2%
George Simion (AUR) -47.8%


So, it would seem like INSCOP, the polling firm of the Deep State, is quite supportive of Mircea Geoana's prospective candidacy. It does seem clear that he wants to run desperately, and that PSD doesn't want to support him. Thus, an independent candidacy is the only option available at the moment. Is he actually so popular? No, but he did carefully craft his image as a professional, technocratic politician during his tenure at NATO, which seems to give him an advantage over less polished frauds like Ciolacu, Simion and Ciuca.

Uh, is the implication here that USR+ voters would support Mircea Geoana? Given his history, I don't find this particularly plausible. I would like to think that neither is a combined Drula/Ciolos vote of less than 10%. And as far as I can see, the polling company never published the second round poll for the people it found in 1st and 2nd, instead testing the 1st vs 3rd, 2nd vs 3rd and 3rd vs 4th scenarios.

In brief: junk poll, no?

[Beagle]

I am wondering how on earth human trashcan is apparently the frontrunner in the Bucharest mayor election, even with the relentless support he must be getting in the right kind of media. The only semi-plausible scenarios I can think of are that:

- he is viewed as somebody who maybe did some errors, but overzealous prosecutors made him into a martyr (but for what cause?!)

- he is viewed as the scapegoat for a cabal of elites, who let him take the fall for their various sins (but how does that absolve trashcan of his errors)?

Is any of the above any close to the truth? In my imagination, Bucharest is among the least fertile of Romanian places for conspiracy thinking, but maybe I am wrong.

[Beagle]

Bucharest exit poll:

Nicusor Dan (i) - United Right - 45
Gabriela Firea - PSD - 24
Cristian Piedone - trashcan - 13
Burduja - PNL - 10
Enache - AUR - 4
Sosoaca - SOS - 3

All in all, a rather comprehensive win for the right alliance.