Romanian Elections&Politics (June 9th - Local and europarliamentary elections)

[RGM2609]

Thanks! I realized that I actually don't know which offices are subject to recall - president and mayors, presumably also county presidents, but what about legislators/municipal/county councilors?

While fiddling around with the results site, it struck me that this Nicolae Valeriu-Ciolan person came awfully close to winning a seat as an independent. Why? Have there been actually successful independent campaigns for the lower chamber in recent years?

Yes, Presidents, Mayors, and County Presidents can be recalled, although the President can only be recalled by Parliament while for the other offices there can be a referendum only through signatures. There are sadly no such procedures for members of Parliament. Regarding municipal and county councilors, individual members can not be recalled, but there can be a referendum to recall the entire Council.

Yes, he was only 17 votes away. Well, he is a pretty well-known social and political activist. He owns some sort of charity for the poor children (mostly) of Roma ethnicity living in Bucharest. Besides that, he was also an official in the Ciolos government and made a name for himself by publishing the true CVs of the members of Parliament. Overall, a pretty cool guy. Anyway, no independent has been elected to Parliament since 1990.

[RGM2609]

The second Minister who is gone from the Cabinet is Alexandru Nazare, the PNL Finance Minister. He is one of the few Ministers who did not endorse the bid of Prime Minister Citu to oust Ludovic Orban from his position as PNL Leader. According to political sources, Nazare did not approve of the plans by Citu to give a lot of money from the budget to PNL Mayors to buy their support in the internal campaign. He will probably be replaced by a PNL County Chairman who is still undecided or some other official whose support would be valuable for the PM.

It was not until today that a successor was finally appointed. And it is Dan Vilceanu, an ally of Citu, leader of an organization important for the next Congress, and, of course, ex-PSD and ex-PDL until he finally found his love for liberalism. Quite an influential character, he is literally the manager of the internal campaign of the PM. Needless to say, he will, in his new job, do anything and spend as much as it is needed to buy support for Citu.

Anyway, obviously, Orban was not pleased with this choice and tried to nominate someone else and then refused to call a meeting of the PNL National Bureau, a council that is supposed to nominate Ministers for PNL. However, in a statutory but very unprecedented and unthinkable move, he was bypassed and the PNL General Secretary called the meeting. Never in the history of the party has the authority of its president been so disrespected. Fittingly, the nominee was voted by everyone who attended except Ludovic Orban. Orban's supporters have boycotted the meeting, but they would have been in minority either way.

[RGM2609]

IRES poll -
PSD - 35%
PNL - 27%
USR - 14%
AUR - 14%
UDMR - 5%
All others - 5%

Should these be the results of the next election, the incumbent government would lose its majority, and a PSD-AUR cabinet would be formed.

[Lechasseur]

The second Minister who is gone from the Cabinet is Alexandru Nazare, the PNL Finance Minister. He is one of the few Ministers who did not endorse the bid of Prime Minister Citu to oust Ludovic Orban from his position as PNL Leader. According to political sources, Nazare did not approve of the plans by Citu to give a lot of money from the budget to PNL Mayors to buy their support in the internal campaign. He will probably be replaced by a PNL County Chairman who is still undecided or some other official whose support would be valuable for the PM.

It was not until today that a successor was finally appointed. And it is Dan Vilceanu, an ally of Citu, leader of an organization important for the next Congress, and, of course, ex-PSD and ex-PDL until he finally found his love for liberalism. Quite an influential character, he is literally the manager of the internal campaign of the PM. Needless to say, he will, in his new job, do anything and spend as much as it is needed to buy support for Citu.

Anyway, obviously, Orban was not pleased with this choice and tried to nominate someone else and then refused to call a meeting of the PNL National Bureau, a council that is supposed to nominate Ministers for PNL. However, in a statutory but very unprecedented and unthinkable move, he was bypassed and the PNL General Secretary called the meeting. Never in the history of the party has the authority of its president been so disrespected. Fittingly, the nominee was voted by everyone who attended except Ludovic Orban. Orban's supporters have boycotted the meeting, but they would have been in minority either way.

So, did Citu succeed in ousting Orban? And what is the future for the PNL's leadership looking like heading into 2024 when President Iohannis steps down? Who's best positioned to run to replace him on the PNL side?

IRES poll -
PSD - 35%
PNL - 27%
USR - 14%
AUR - 14%
UDMR - 5%
All others - 5%

Should these be the results of the next election, the incumbent government would lose its majority, and a PSD-AUR cabinet would be formed.

When is the next election?

[RGM2609]

So, did Citu succeed in ousting Orban? And what is the future for the PNL's leadership looking like heading into 2024 when President Iohannis steps down? Who's best positioned to run to replace him on the PNL side?


When is the next election?

1. The vote will take place on September 25th, so still unknown. And on replacing Iohannis - it is early but if Orban wins, he will absolutely run unless he dies/is arrested/something else kills his career. If Citu wins, I don't think he has presidential ambitions, but neither did Ponta. He will be persuaded to run by many people. If he still rejects, I could see Bihor County Chairman Ilie Bolojan running, through he is not exactly on good terms with Iohannis. So a lot of variables, but it should be more clear after September 25th.

2. Technically 2024, but the coalition is not stable enough nor any other majority clear to guarantee there won't be a snap election.

[Lechasseur]

So, did Citu succeed in ousting Orban? And what is the future for the PNL's leadership looking like heading into 2024 when President Iohannis steps down? Who's best positioned to run to replace him on the PNL side?


When is the next election?

1. The vote will take place on September 25th, so still unknown. And on replacing Iohannis - it is early but if Orban wins, he will absolutely run unless he dies/is arrested/something else kills his career. If Citu wins, I don't think he has presidential ambitions, but neither did Ponta. He will be persuaded to run by many people. If he still rejects, I could see Bihor County Chairman Ilie Bolojan running, through he is not exactly on good terms with Iohannis. So a lot of variables, but it should be more clear after September 25th.

2. Technically 2024, but the coalition is not stable enough nor any other majority clear to guarantee there won't be a snap election.

Thanks for the explanation.

Between Orban and Citu, who do you think would be better and why? How are they different? And why does Orban seem to have so much opposition within the party to begin with?

[RGM2609]

So, did Citu succeed in ousting Orban? And what is the future for the PNL's leadership looking like heading into 2024 when President Iohannis steps down? Who's best positioned to run to replace him on the PNL side?


When is the next election?

1. The vote will take place on September 25th, so still unknown. And on replacing Iohannis - it is early but if Orban wins, he will absolutely run unless he dies/is arrested/something else kills his career. If Citu wins, I don't think he has presidential ambitions, but neither did Ponta. He will be persuaded to run by many people. If he still rejects, I could see Bihor County Chairman Ilie Bolojan running, through he is not exactly on good terms with Iohannis. So a lot of variables, but it should be more clear after September 25th.

2. Technically 2024, but the coalition is not stable enough nor any other majority clear to guarantee there won't be a snap election.

Thanks for the explanation.

Between Orban and Citu, who do you think would be better and why? How are they different? And why does Orban seem to have so much opposition within the party to begin with?

Eh, the opposition to Orban is not so much among party members, which are by all reports pro-Orban, but from party leaders. There are many reasons driving different leaders to the Citu team, the main ones being - Iohannis opposes Orban because he has been able to form a different party base to counter the presidential sycophants and is using his influence against him, party leaders blame Orban for the bad result in the 2020 race, some local officials are directly dependent on the central budget and could get valuable resources in exchange for supporting Citu, ex-PDLers want to regain some influence and some just want to be on the winning side. But if there is one moment without which this entire movement would not have been possible is Orban giving key Ministries to USR and UDMR in exchange for him becoming Speaker. That was the turning point.

Their self-proclaimed ideologies differ - Orban claims to be a liberal-conservative, and Citu is fully liberal. But I have no doubt both would declare themselves communists in a second if they would see that as advantageous. The main difference is in the future of the coalition and the government - and Citu has proven himself to be outrageously arrogant and resistant to any meaningful reforms. I hope Orban wins, even as I despise him as a person, just because Orban will be more likely to either  agree to some USR priorities just to keep the stability or break it altogether, going for a PNL minority government, ending this painful status quo that is discrediting the idea of meaningful reforms. And a lot of HPs would be kicked out of the government if Orban wins. So I support Orban, but many are making a case for Citu and that he would be slightly less bad. It is clear that both are horrible choices anyway.

[RGM2609]

The coalition is breaking apart again. The tensions now are because Citu is trying to push a third version of Dragnea's PNDL (meaning handouts to Mayors and their projects which are often stolen) over the head of USR because he thinks it will ensure a victory over Orban for the PNL leadership. Anyway, USR is pissed, and are threating to leave the government unless Citu compromises and unblocks an USR priority in exchange for PNDL 3.0. Citu obviously refuses, and Barna is somewhat unlikely to cave again due to the looming USR leadership election. With Orban unwilling to save Citu for obvious reasons, the only one who could do that is President Iohannis, who is expected to speak in about an hour.

[RGM2609]

The coalition is breaking apart again. The tensions now are because Citu is trying to push a third version of Dragnea's PNDL (meaning handouts to Mayors and their projects which are often stolen) over the head of USR because he thinks it will ensure a victory over Orban for the PNL leadership. Anyway, USR is pissed, and are threating to leave the government unless Citu compromises and unblocks an USR priority in exchange for PNDL 3.0. Citu obviously refuses, and Barna is somewhat unlikely to cave again due to the looming USR leadership election. With Orban unwilling to save Citu for obvious reasons, the only one who could do that is President Iohannis, who is expected to speak in about an hour.

It is over for the government, as Florin Citu has kicked out the USR Justice Minister Stelian Ion, blaming him for not giving the clearance to PNDL 3.0. USR has gone on full war mode and is demanding Citu's resignation again. They won't back down this time it seems.

[RGM2609]

After Citu has vehemently refused to resign, forcing a meeting of the PNL leadership over the head of Orban where a motion of support for the Prime Minister was approved, USR has decided to file a motion of no confidence into the Government they are members of. However, USR does not have enough signatures for their motion to make it to the floor, so it will probably come up to PSD to file one like they were already planning to do, or AUR will sign on to the USR one as some already say. Anyway, with Citu hanging on to his chair while Orban refuses to do anything to help him, the situation is very unstable and either Citu or USR will have to leave the government as USR seems more willing to fight back this time.

[RGM2609]

After Citu has vehemently refused to resign, forcing a meeting of the PNL leadership over the head of Orban where a motion of support for the Prime Minister was approved, USR has decided to file a motion of no confidence into the Government they are members of. However, USR does not have enough signatures for their motion to make it to the floor, so it will probably come up to PSD to file one like they were already planning to do, or AUR will sign on to the USR one as some already say. Anyway, with Citu hanging on to his chair while Orban refuses to do anything to help him, the situation is very unstable and either Citu or USR will have to leave the government as USR seems more willing to fight back this time.

So now there will probably be two motions, one by PSD and one by a weird alliance between AUR and USR. It would be hilarious if both would fail because they would not vote for the motions of each other. But that probably will not happen.

[Beagle]

It would be hilarious if both would fail because they would not vote for the motions of each other. But that probably will not happen.

Romanian parliament still does that weird black ball/white ball thing, right? If there is no way of knowing which particular MP voted for/against the government, I don't see how the vote will fail because the parties don't want to vote for each others motion. What is the timeline now? Iohannis will presumably sign-off on the sacking (and even if he didn't, I gather the motions are already filed). If/when the government is brought down, how many days do the parties have to (re)negotiate for a government, because I imagine it will be impossible to get somebody to compromise with the party congresses coming up.

[RGM2609]

It would be hilarious if both would fail because they would not vote for the motions of each other. But that probably will not happen.

Romanian parliament still does that weird black ball/white ball thing, right? If there is no way of knowing which particular MP voted for/against the government, I don't see how the vote will fail because the parties don't want to vote for each others motion. What is the timeline now? Iohannis will presumably sign-off on the sacking (and even if he didn't, I gather the motions are already filed). If/when the government is brought down, how many days do the parties have to (re)negotiate for a government, because I imagine it will be impossible to get somebody to compromise with the party congresses coming up.

Well, PNL and UDMR MPs would probably refuse to vote, thus making it obvious who voted for each motion. Anyway, all of these are just posturing, meant to hide the crucial dilemmas that both PSD and USR face right now. So PSD has the option to either join USR and AUR and take the government down or propel PNL and UDMR in government for some time. Both options have their advantages and disadvantages. If they vote a motion, Iohannis would not let snap elections happen or let PSD take over the government and they would lose any access to power but gain points with the voters. If they join in some unofficial confidence-and-supply agreement, they would gain a lot of money, which is their primary goal, and doom PNL in 2024, but they would also make themselves vulnerable electorally to AUR or a new Dragnea party. Similarly, USR would like nothing more than for the situation to solve itself without them voting a motion with PSD - either PNL caves and Citu goes away or PSD props the government, giving them a huge boost from disaffected PNL and anti-system voters of all stripes. Yeah, this is a complicated situation.

The signoff has already happened and Iohannis is even being blamed by the former Justice Minister for being behind his sacking. Reportedly, Iohannis was displeased with Stelian Ion taking away powers from him in prosecutorial appointments. Either way, it is clear that Citu and Iohannis were coordinating. Anyway, if the government is brought down, it would likely be on 15th-20th September, as it takes time to bring a motion to a vote even with a friendly parliamentary leadership. After that, I could not find any specific time limit in the Constitution, through Iohannis has to consult with the parties until they find a solution. So a lame-duck government could theoretically lead forever, through its powers are so limited that the parties never go for that route.

[RGM2609]

A clear timetable has emerged - USR will officially and directly demand Citu his resignation tomorrow, and if he still refuses, they will file a motion of no confidence with AUR on September 5th. PSD seems to be going right now for the first option I mentioned in the earlier post and will likely not file a motion too. So if everything goes according to plan, Citu should be kicked out a few days before the PNL Congress. But especially the honesty of PSD should, as always, be doubted.

[RGM2609]

So the meeting in which USR demanded the resignation of the Prime Minister was according to all reports a mess in which all bridges between the two sides were burned. I will not go into all the details of the reported trainwreck, but the highlight is that Citu tried to stop USR from filing a motion of no confidence by threatening to kick all of them out, to which USR went not if we are leaving first, so all USR ministers and lower-ranking officials are resigning and they filed the motion today instead of on the 5th probably just to spite Citu. It is great to know that we are being led by mature men! On that note, is there any interest in an extensive write-up on this crisis or is the situation clear already?

On another note, the Minister of European Funds wrote a juicy and vengeful post on Facebook on his way out, and here is one of the moments it details, mildly edited - PNL announced in the media that in the Coalition meeting it will present its solutions for disbanding SIIJ. Very well. There, Ms. Scantei (PNL Senator) shocks us. For two hours she told us how she has a solution, but she would not tell us what it is. That the Justice Minister should tell us what her solution is, he should know. The Prime Minister, 2 Deputy Prime Ministers, the Presidents of the Senate and the Chamber, and 6 Ministers were there, listening to Ms. Scantei and her solution that should be told by the Justice Minister.

PS - It would appear as if the battle for the motion of no confidence has started, and the Speaker of the Chamber is the most important piece in the puzzle. Want to guess who that is? Anyway, PNL is already boiling that already today he has tried to speed up the process, only to fail because PSD did not show up to the called meeting together with the other PNLers and UDMR. Hmm?

[Zinneke]

Is Ioannis staying above this or is he just looking out for PNL interests?

[RGM2609]

Is Ioannis staying above this or is he just looking out for PNL interests?

He is doing everything he can to save PNL and his protege Citu from behind the scenes, but he does not come into play so much yet as he can not literally negotiate with individual MPs, USR refuses to negotiate in any way and PSD despises him. If Citu loses the motion of no confidence, that is where he can really influence things, as he has the power to nominate Prime Ministerial candidates, and he will that looking out both for PNL and himself.

Update: Iohannis has written a lengthy post on Facebook slamming USR so he does not even try to appear above it all

[Beagle]

This mess has been brewing for a while and you have done an admirable job of explaining its origins. But I'm confused about the constitutional situation now and the consequences.

The literal reading of art. 89 of your constitution indicates that Iohannis is allowed to not dissolve parliament after 60 days from the first failed government proposal etc. I can't see any provision for parliament dissolving itself and the calling of snap elections without the President's cooperation. So if I understand correctly, Iohannis could nominate a series of unconfirmable PM candidates for the duration of the parliament term and maintain the Citu government in place as caretakers... but a Citu government that will include the USR ministers, since I don't believe that there is a majority in place to vote for their replacement. This is obviously not a sustainable situation. Is any parliamentary grouping more likely than another to suffer from apostasy (i.e. have a faction split)?

[RGM2609]

This mess has been brewing for a while and you have done an admirable job of explaining its origins. But I'm confused about the constitutional situation now and the consequences.

The literal reading of art. 89 of your constitution indicates that Iohannis is allowed to not dissolve parliament after 60 days from the first failed government proposal etc. I can't see any provision for parliament dissolving itself and the calling of snap elections without the President's cooperation. So if I understand correctly, Iohannis could nominate a series of unconfirmable PM candidates for the duration of the parliament term and maintain the Citu government in place as caretakers... but a Citu government that will include the USR ministers, since I don't believe that there is a majority in place to vote for their replacement. This is obviously not a sustainable situation. Is any parliamentary grouping more likely than another to suffer from apostasy (i.e. have a faction split)?

No, there is no way to dissolve Parliament if the President refuses to cooperate. Also, as I have stated in a previous post, USR Ministers are resigning as a response to Citu threatening to kick them all out. So a caretaker Citu government will not include USR Ministers. This makes the situation even more of a trainwreck, so I will try to clarify it -

Because USR Ministers are resigning, the political composition of the Cabinet has changed, and Citu is forced to come to Parliament in 45 days to request its confidence again, that is unless he loses it before that through the motion of no confidence. So a failure of the motion of no confidence (which could be stopped from even being voted on by PSD) would only give Citu an additional 30 days or something like that. Before Citu has clearly received the confidence of Parliament, he can only replace the USR Ministers with Acting Ministers who are already in his Cabinet. They would presumably stay on if Citu remains as a caretaker. But yes, it would be a very unsustainable situation that would have Citu and the PNL Ministers flailing around the Victoria Palace, unable to do anything while getting blamed by the people for the mounting crises. It would only be a last resort for Iohannis. The other two options would be Citu going away either by losing to Orban or being forced out by Iohannis and the coalition being reinstated with another PM, or USL is alive, as the Ponta 2014 posters were infamously proclaiming, and both of these would have to clearly fail.

[RGM2609]

The whole mess has unfolded today in the leading body of Parliament, where, with the tacit consent of PSD, PNL and UDMR have managed to delay the vote on the motion of no confidence for two weeks, a time during which some Parliamentary Commission is supposed to run some bogus verification of signatures. The obvious goal of the Citu supporters is to delay any vote until after PNL has its Congress because if Citu loses a motion of no confidence before that it is very likely that he will also lose his advantage over Ludovic Orban. This would not have been possible without PSD, who left the meeting, allowing PNL to have a majority of those present. What will happen next is unclear. USR and AUR can not file another motion until this one is checked so it all comes down to PSD to do it. However, it is unclear what they want to do, as they contradict themselves every ten seconds, but it seems pretty obvious that they have some sort of deal with Citu and Iohannis.

[Lechasseur]

The whole mess has unfolded today in the leading body of Parliament, where, with the tacit consent of PSD, PNL and UDMR have managed to delay the vote on the motion of no confidence for two weeks, a time during which some Parliamentary Commissions is supposed to run some bogus verification of signatures. The obvious goal of the Citu supporters is to delay any vote until after PNL has its Congress because if Citu loses a motion of no confidence before that it is very likely that he will also lose his advantage over Ludovic Orban. This would not have been possible without PSD, who left the meeting, allowing PNL to have a majority of those present. What will happen next is unclear. USR and AUR can not file another motion until this one is checked so it all comes down to PSD to do it. However, it is unclear what they want to do, as they contradict themselves every ten seconds, but it seems pretty obvious that they have some sort of deal with Citu and Iohannis.

So at this point Citu is favoured to win against Orban I'd assume?

[RGM2609]

The whole mess has unfolded today in the leading body of Parliament, where, with the tacit consent of PSD, PNL and UDMR have managed to delay the vote on the motion of no confidence for two weeks, a time during which some Parliamentary Commissions is supposed to run some bogus verification of signatures. The obvious goal of the Citu supporters is to delay any vote until after PNL has its Congress because if Citu loses a motion of no confidence before that it is very likely that he will also lose his advantage over Ludovic Orban. This would not have been possible without PSD, who left the meeting, allowing PNL to have a majority of those present. What will happen next is unclear. USR and AUR can not file another motion until this one is checked so it all comes down to PSD to do it. However, it is unclear what they want to do, as they contradict themselves every ten seconds, but it seems pretty obvious that they have some sort of deal with Citu and Iohannis.

So at this point Citu is favoured to win against Orban I'd assume?

Looking at how the powerbrokers are distributed, I would say that Citu should not only win but win by 70% of the votes. Delegates may not vote in the same way, but such a huge advantage is hard to overcome. However, it is possible that PNLers may come to view Citu as a liability before that, especially if he loses his main advantage (his ability to bribe Mayors and County Chairmen as Prime Minister).

[RGM2609]

BREAKING - The outcome of the vote is now contested, as two MPs, including Ludovic Orban, were present at the meeting but did not vote. If they would be included, the motion to send the motion to start checking signatures for two weeks would have not gained a majority. Upon realizing that, PNL and UDMR have left the meeting as PSD did before, denying a quorum to actually sending the motion to the Chamber. So the motion is still stuck in the Permanent Bureau of Parliament because the PSD and PNL keep boycotting its meetings, but it was not sent to the Parliamentary Commission to check signatures for two weeks.

[Beagle]

As amply demonstrated by the Bulgarian parties, to expect rationality in politics is somewhat irrational. However, as hard as I try, I fail to see what's in it for PSD to prop up an ailing Citu government. Surely even if they were to revive USL (and I can't see this being popular with the PSD rank-and-file), they will demand the prime ministership, maybe not for Ciolacu, but for somebody associated with the party - especially with the EU recovery plan funds coming round soon-ish.

You mentioned a potential Dragnea comeback - is it realistic?

[RGM2609]

As amply demonstrated by the Bulgarian parties, to expect rationality in politics is somewhat irrational. However, as hard as I try, I fail to see what's in it for PSD to prop up an ailing Citu government. Surely even if they were to revive USL (and I can't see this being popular with the PSD rank-and-file), they will demand the prime ministership, maybe not for Ciolacu, but for somebody associated with the party - especially with the EU recovery plan funds coming round soon-ish.

You mentioned a potential Dragnea comeback - is it realistic?

Their main reason for existing. Money. PSD Mayors, County Chairmans, and businessmen would make good use out of the 50 billion about to be distributed completely arbitrarily by the Ministry of Development (this is the thing for which USR left). Also, PSD would have some control over the government, sabotaging it at every move while filling the lower ranks of the bureaucratic apparatus with cronies. The alternative would be either PNL governing by itself indefinitely or Citu going away and being replaced by someone better (that is a given because anyone would be better), meaning the government may start recovering. However, the electoral costs of such a move and the boost it would give AUR and other splinters (would it not be hilarious if both Dragnea and Ponta come back?) is too risky for them. Where I think this is headed is a compromise - PSD helps Citu delay the motion only until after the PNL Congress in exchange for money. But this may be too rational, as you have said.

There are a lot of rumors that Dragnea, together with one of the political stars of our country, former Senate Chairman Teodor Melescanu, will create a party called ApR (Alliance for Romania), reviving the old party of Melescanu from 2000. Even Ciolacu warned PSDers in some meetings about this possibility. I do not know whether it will be in this form or this year, but knowing him, I expect him to get active again soon.