IA-Selzer: Trump +7

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Lmfao, ok yea Selzer's reign is done.

I dont doubt Trump wins Iowa but the margin here aint happening.

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I look forward to mocking Selzer in a few days

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Trump is going to win the election again.

With what, the great swing state of IOWA?

LMFAO

God you people are so deluded

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GAME OVER LIBS!

Biden doesn't need Iowa.

No, but this is a sign that there's likely once again a systemic polling error in the midwest. Biden is gonna really have to hope he locks down AZ, FL and NC.

No it isnt

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This poll has Trump up 1 from September but Biden down 6?

That strikes me as bizarre.

Because its a trash poll

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Polls in states Biden needs: *show Biden ahead*
Atlas: I sleep
Poll in a state Biden doesn't need: *shows Trump ahead*
Atlas: real sh**t?

Lmfao yes, this is peak atlas

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Well, this forum is going to be insufferable as hell for the final three days.

It already wasnt?

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Why are posters on here losing their sanity over this one poll? This is a habit of Atlas' which I've never understood.

Because this “one poll” is iconic for predicting the massive Trump surge in the Midwest in 2016.

It's also iconic poll for being a massive f--k up in the 2020 primaries

I TOTALLY BELIEVE BIDEN DROPPED 6 POINTS SINCE THE LAST POLL /s
lmfao

This forum man

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Missouri is not voting to the right of Iowa lmfao

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Wow. Trump is going to win the election.

This is the perfect encapsulation of this thread

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I can buy this and still buy a Biden landslide nationally, it would just mean 2016 in Iowa wasn't a fluke and rural voters are seriously going to become problems for Democrats.

lol I and INDYREP have been trying to tell this entire forum this for like 5 months...

Biden won't be winning MI/WI/PA by more than 5.

The swing in this election is coming from the SUNBELT, not the RUSTBELT.

This is an equally poor post, MI+WI+PA are fundamentally different from Iowa......

There is very little PA+IA have in common

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I'm seriously convinced that this is an outlier now. Trump hasn't been up that much in any poll since March and at minimum Biden has been hitting 46% in recent polling. Selzer is in for a miss this year.

This is the gold standard of polling, and IA polls always overestimate Democrats.

They failed to release their final primary poll this year and I suspect that was because they were afraid of being wrong and not just because they left a candidate out. Every pollster ends up being wrong eventually and this poll has never ever had a Democratic bias.

Great post and 100% agreed.

This is gearing up to be a potentially extremely high turnout election that may be difficult to properly model in polls.

But hey trend doomers and trumpers gonna be trumpers and doomers smh

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But you fail to realize that Trump is still trailing in enough states to lose. He's behind in the Republican stronghold of Texas and if he loses Texas winning Iowa means nothing.

There are some people on here that are living in the 2012 era and can’t wrap their heads around that scary idea of letting Iowa “go”.

Oh this is definitely true Im ngl I am REALLY enjoying the salt and gloating in this thread on multiple levels.

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WOW is everyone here as autistic as the nutbags in this thread? Good riddance.

No just some of the normal suspects being nutjobs

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But you fail to realize that Trump is still trailing in enough states to lose. He's behind in the Republican stronghold of Texas and if he loses Texas winning Iowa means nothing.

There are some people on here that are living in the 2012 era and can’t wrap their heads around that scary idea of letting Iowa “go”.

It's not letting Iowa go. It's letting the Midwest go. Georgia might be there, but I'm still not quite sure Texas is and then we're relying on states without a significant trend like Florida and North Carolina.

Make no mistake, this poll means potentially very bad things in other states.

Now hear me out, just what if... what if Iowa isnt that similar to other states in the region and Selzer is not the word of god?

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I understand Selzer is great at polling Iowa and that Iowa can predict trends of the white working class. However, Biden is still up by 8.6 in the NPV. Let's say that there's another systematic polling issue in the upper Midwest and Biden is in danger of losing one or more of MN/WI/MI/PA. So if Biden is underperforming his polls in this region, where is that +8.6 coming from? It can't be all from votes in safe blue states, and a lot of the safe red states (like IN, MO, etc.) have similar profile as Iowa and Biden is underperforming there. Let's say Florida is close as usual. Then this suggest to me that in this scenario Biden would be overperforming his polling in the Sun Belt, in particular AZ, TX, GA, and NC, and winning those states. So unless there's a big polling error in the NPV and Biden is actually only up by 4, then I still feel good about Biden's chances.

We also got all the district polls showing that state polls are indeed systemically wrong... just not in Trump's direction

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*** I apologize for the sh*t posting tonight everyone.  I don’t think I’m gonna be having much fun in 3 days, so let me have my moment right now.

That's fair. Proceed.

Yep Buzz, your not the one I think most of us are criticizing atm in this thread lol

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Just putting this out there....

Selzer doesnt weigh by education.

Wait seriously?

Aight #CancelSelzer

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Missouri is not voting to the right of Iowa lmfao

It absolutely is. Did you meant to say "left"?

Yes that is what I meant

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lOuSy SaMpLe, jUnK!

If theyre indeed weighting by CD and have CD-01 at that then actually yes it is a junk sample lmfao

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Not y'all trying to unskew the results through their CD polls. It's n = 200, they're bound to be wonky. The n = 800 sample that shows a Biden collapse is really the only part of the poll that matters.

They apparently weight by congressional district so yes they actually may matter

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Acknowledging small sample sizes, my experience with phonebanking/canvassing tells me that "don't wanna tell you my vote" probably tilts towards older voters. I also suspect Trump has more support in that group than Biden.

Oddly, the only age group Biden is winning in this poll is 65+.

Selzer Time of Death of Reputation 7:30 PM EST 10/31/20

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So even in Trump's best poll in recent memory, it still shows a swing away from him?

Yes and a large enough one where he would still lose the election

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https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1322916712468172800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1322916712468172800%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html1322916712468172800

Smth seems off here.....

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So apparently this was the deleted text:

https://pastebin.com/raw/gYVALf47

I’m REALLY starting to think this poll was compromised. After a screw-up in the primaries too, Selzer is in real danger of losing “gold standard” status for good.

The way to lose the 'gold standard' status is to not publish your outliers. Selzer has done the right thing here even if the poll is way off and should be applauded for it.

This is better than being denied the final Iowa poll (thanks to a particular Buttigieg supporter).

An outlier is one thing. A deliberately manipulated/compromised poll that you failed to catch is another.

Pretty much, if Selzer is off in this one their reputation is finished