Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump 44%
Haley 26%
DeSantis 21%
Vivek 7%
Other 2%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CNN: Trump is the "Early Leader". DeSantis/Haley close together for 2nd.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Among Very Conservative: Trump 1st, DeSantis 2nd, RAMASWAMY 3rd, Haley 4th
Among Independents (you can change to R same-day): Trump 1st, Haley 2nd, RAMASWAMY 3rd, DeSantis 4th

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They really start the caucuses with a prayer?

Man these things are just so weird.

It's Iowa. A supermajority of the state is religious, and probably near-unanimous among Republicans.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump is addressing a caucus in Clive, IA. His suitcoat is unnecessarily long

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican Caucus
Candidate   Votes   PercentPct.   Chart showing percent   DelegatesDelegates
Donald J. Trump
120   +75.9%75.9%   
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
19   +12.0%12.0   
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
11   +7.0%7.0   
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
7   +4.4%4.4   
No delegates—
Chris Christie
1   +0.6%0.6   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So over/under on Trump winning every county tonight?

Already have a county going for DeSantis and Haley over Trump lol

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
243 +67.5%67.5%
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
67 +18.6%18.6
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
31 +8.6%8.6
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
17 +4.7%4.7
No delegates—
Chris Christie
1 +0.3%0.3
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
1 +0.3%0.3
No delegates

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN PROJECTION:

Donald J. Trump
316 +69.3%69.3%
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
73 +16.0%16.0
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
40 +8.8%8.8
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
25 +5.5%5.5
No delegates—
Chris Christie
1 +0.2%0.2
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
1 +0.2%0.2

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump falling back to earth in Polk county.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
632 +62.5%62.5%
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
158 +15.6%15.6
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
142 +14.0%14.0
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
68 +6.7%6.7
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
8 +0.8%0.8
No delegates—
Chris Christie
2 +0.2%0.2
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
2 +0.2%0.2

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
726 +57.1%57.1%
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
218 +17.2%17.2
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
217 +17.1%17.1
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
91 +7.2%7.2
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
11 +0.9%0.9
No delegates—
Chris Christie
4 +0.3%0.3
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
4 +0.3%0.3
No delegates—

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

But hasn't effectively everyone already caucused and they're just collating and tallying? This is not like the Dems where they can be debating things for a while.

The length of speeches vary from site to site. A small rural caucus site might only have surrogates for 2 of the candidates, a larger caucus site may have a surrogate for everyone including Hutchinson/Binkley. Also, these are all counted by paper - no machines. The more slips of paper you have to count, the longer it takes. Then it gets reported to the state party who reports it to the networks. It's a process.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In the official count so far, Haley is in 2nd, but in the caucus sites CNN is featuring, DeSantis is 2nd. Could easily end either way.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN PROJECTION: Vivek will finish in 4TH, Binkley will finish in 5TH

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
1,686    +53.2%53.2%
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
616    +19.5%19.5
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
581    +18.3%18.3
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
252    +8.0%8.0
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
21    +0.7%0.7
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
5    +0.2%0.2
No delegates—
Chris Christie
3    +0.1%0.1
No delegates—
Other
3    +0.1%0.1
No delegates—

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Donald J. Trump
2,460    +51.4%51.4%    
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
1,019    +21.3%21.3
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
920    +19.2%19.2
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
351    +7.3%7.3
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
28    +0.6%0.6
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
5    +0.1%0.1
No delegates—
Chris Christie
3    +0.1%0.1
No delegates—
Other
3    +0.1%0.1
No delegates—

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN PROJECTION: Hutchinson will finish in SIXTH

Donald J. Trump
21,357    +51.9%51.9%  
No delegates—
Ron DeSantis
8,249    +20.1%20.1
No delegates—
Nikki Haley
7,978    +19.4%19.4
No delegates—
Vivek Ramaswamy
3,185    +7.7%7.7
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
247    +0.6%0.6
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
61    +0.1%0.1    
No delegates—
Chris Christie
18    +0.0%<0.1
No delegates—
Other
36    +0.1%0.1

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump allocated 16 Delegates, DeSantis 4, Haley 4, 16 still to be decided

Donald J. Trump
23,705 +52.8%52.8%
16
Ron DeSantis
8,982 +20.0%20.0
4
Nikki Haley
8,396 +18.7%18.7
4
Vivek Ramaswamy
3,445 +7.7%7.7
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
281 +0.6%0.6
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
67 +0.1%0.1
No delegates—
Chris Christie
17 +0.0%<0.1
No delegates—
Other
36 +0.1%0.1
No delegates—

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Among those who decided in the last two weeks, Haley won, followed by DeSantis, with Trump in 3rd.

However, 64% of the electorate decided before that, and Trump won that vote by 64%-17% with DeSantis in 2nd and Haley in 3rd.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NYT seems really behind, only showing Trump with 23k vs. CNN with 26k

Haley now ahead in Polk while Trump also clears 53%.

NYT randomly removed a bunch of the Polk County returns it had.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PROJECTION: OTHER WILL FINISH 7TH, CHRISTIE WILL FINISH 8TH

Donald J. Trump
43,681    +51.4%51.4%
16

Ron DeSantis
17,836    +21.0%21.0
4
Nikki Haley
16,028    +18.9%18.9
4
Vivek Ramaswamy
6,558    +7.7%7.7
No delegates—
Ryan Binkley
622    +0.7%0.7
No delegates—
Asa Hutchinson
139    +0.2%0.2
No delegates—
Other
77    +0.1%0.1
No delegates—
Chris Christie
25    +0.0%<0.1
No delegates—

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN PROJECTION: THE ORDER IS NOW ENTIRELY SET

TRUMP 1ST
DESANTIS 2ND
HALEY 3RD
VIVEK 4TH
BINKLEY 5TH
HUTCHINSON 6TH
OTHER 7TH
CHRISTIE 8TH

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not that it matters but here is tonight's delegates won:

Trump- 20
Desantis- 9
Haley- 8
Ramaswamy- 3*

* not sure how they handle delegates of someone who has dropped out.

Assuming state party rules haven't changed from 2016, those delegates get reallocated to the other candidates. So likely 2 to Trump and 1 somewhere else.