Between 5-10% -unless I have seriously misjudged my state's residual conservatism and Republican allegiance.
How about polling? I haven't seen a legit poll that has Warner winning by less than 14.
I am basing my predictions on past performance by other statewide Democratic candidates -and his own. And because it's a midterm year in what is still a conservative state. If these poll results still hold true by the end of the month, I'll shift my predictions.
Until then, I guess I'll be the cautious one.
barely
Both of whom were elected in presidential election years, one of which was a wave election.
Over a radical, Tea-Party affiliated Republican nominated in a convention -too conservative even for many Republicans in the state.
It still is.
Wasn't it closest to the national vote in both 2008 and 2012? I wouldn't call that barely, especially in 2008.
Fair enough on the Senators, but Warner likely would've won by a blowout no matter what year he ran in.
Yes, Cuccinelli was a horrible candidate, but so was McAuliffe.
With the presidential race, a significant part of it was likely from increased black turnout due to Obama's presence on the ballot rather than from pure demographic changes. Once the democrats nominate somebody that isn't black, doesn't break some glass ceiling, and isn't from Virginia, we'll get a true picture of VA's presidential preferences - neither 2008 nor 2012 represent a true picture.
With the governor's race, you really can't deny that Bill Bolling probably would have defeated McAuliffe (or for that matter - Tom Perriello, Ward Armstrong, or Chap Petersen (all potential candidates who declined to run)) - and would have gotten Obenshain across the finish line in the Att. Gen. race as well. The McAuliffe win was really just the result of the republicans choosing someone terrible.
There's also the fact that the race tightened dramatically in the final days - if the election was held a week later, perhaps Cuccinelli would have actually won.
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In order to be solidly blue or solidly red as a state, you have to really accomplish three things:
1. Have a period of at least 8 years (two full election cycles) where you elect the same party during any and all presidential, senatorial, gubernatorial, or statewide downballot elections in that 8 year period - VA doesn't satisfy this one because it elected a republican governor, lt. governor, and att. gen. in 2009.
2. Have the party you are 'solidly' for win as many house races as is conceivably possible (i.e. Democrats don't have to win Safe R districts to satisfy this one) - VA would satisfy this if both VA-10 and VA-2 flip this year, but I personally don't see that happening.
3. During two consecutive 'big' election years (presidential or midterm) in which you have at least one contested federal or statewide race, have all your contested federal/statewide races rated Safe (for the party you are solidly for) early in the cycle - 2008 and 2012 don't fit the bill, and Rothenberg, Sabato, and Cook all still have VA-SEN at Likely D for this year.
So, while I would agree that as of right now, Virginia is more of a Pennsylvania than an Ohio in terms of competitiveness, it's far from being 'solidly blue'.
Poll
