Mark Warner's Margin of Victory

[KCDem]

I'm going to go with a 20-25% victory. Hopefully it will be larger and the pounding of Gillespie harder.

[Vega]

10% to 20%.

[IceSpear]

Gillespie will win.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it will be right around 20%, I'm predicting 58-38-4. Voted 20-25%.

[IceSpear]

I'm thinking it'll be between 10 - 20%.

Just out of curiosity, who are you voting for?

[KCDem]

Gillespie will win.

#Warnerunder70
#Gillespiementum
#Demsindisarray

[Maxwell]

20-25. Gillespie is a terrible candidate.

[Miles]

'Around 57-40.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Something around 55-38-7.

[Senator Cris]

Why there isn't the option "Gillespie by 0-5%"?

[Maxwell]

Why there isn't the option "Gillespie by 0-5%"?

(Politico option)

[SWE]

20-25. Gillespie is a terrible candidate.

[henster]

55-41-4.

[Frodo]

Between 5-10% -unless I have seriously misjudged my state's residual conservatism and Republican allegiance. 

[NewYorkExpress]

Warner 53

Gillespie 39

Sarvis 7%

[IceSpear]

Why there isn't the option "Gillespie by 0-5%"?

I personally want a Gillespie by >40% option.

[KCDem]

Between 5-10% -unless I have seriously misjudged my state's residual conservatism and Republican allegiance. 

You have, now move along.

[Maxwell]

Between 5-10% -unless I have seriously misjudged my state's residual conservatism and Republican allegiance. 

How about polling? I haven't seen a legit poll that has Warner winning by less than 14.

[SWE]

In fairness, a lot of the polling has been done by fairly questionable firms. With the race deemed as uncompetitive, not a lot of reputable pollsters have looked at the race.

so what you're saying is that gillespie will win?

[Frodo]

Between 5-10% -unless I have seriously misjudged my state's residual conservatism and Republican allegiance.  

How about polling? I haven't seen a legit poll that has Warner winning by less than 14.

I am basing my predictions on past performance by other statewide Democratic candidates -and his own.  And because it's a midterm year in what is still a conservative state. If these poll results still hold true by the end of the month, I'll shift my predictions.  

Until then, I guess I'll be the cautious one.  

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Between 5-10% -unless I have seriously misjudged my state's residual conservatism and Republican allegiance.  

How about polling? I haven't seen a legit poll that has Warner winning by less than 14.

I am basing my predictions on past performance by other statewide Democratic candidates -and his own.  And because it's a midterm year in what is still a conservative state. If these poll results still hold true by the end of the month, I'll shift my predictions.  

Until then, I guess I'll be the cautious one.  

Voted for Obama twice, has two Democratic senators and elected a Democratic governor in an off-off-year election? Sounds like a real conservative bastion. /s

[Frodo]

Between 5-10% -unless I have seriously misjudged my state's residual conservatism and Republican allegiance.  

How about polling? I haven't seen a legit poll that has Warner winning by less than 14.

I am basing my predictions on past performance by other statewide Democratic candidates -and his own.  And because it's a midterm year in what is still a conservative state. If these poll results still hold true by the end of the month, I'll shift my predictions.  

Until then, I guess I'll be the cautious one.  

Voted for Obama twice,

barely

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Both of whom were elected in presidential election years, one of which was a wave election.

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Over a radical, Tea-Party affiliated Republican nominated in a convention -too conservative even for many Republicans in the state.

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It still is. 

[Flake]

I'm thinking it'll be between 10 - 20%.

Just out of curiosity, who are you voting for?

I'm curious as well

[KCDem]

Make all the excuses you want, Frodo, but Virginia is rapidly turning into a solidly blue state. Maybe you should go back to playing with that ring of yours rather than commenting on things that are out of your league.

[IceSpear]

Between 5-10% -unless I have seriously misjudged my state's residual conservatism and Republican allegiance.  

How about polling? I haven't seen a legit poll that has Warner winning by less than 14.

I am basing my predictions on past performance by other statewide Democratic candidates -and his own.  And because it's a midterm year in what is still a conservative state. If these poll results still hold true by the end of the month, I'll shift my predictions.  

Until then, I guess I'll be the cautious one.  

Voted for Obama twice,

barely

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Both of whom were elected in presidential election years, one of which was a wave election.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Over a radical, Tea-Party affiliated Republican nominated in a convention -too conservative even for many Republicans in the state.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It still is. 

Wasn't it closest to the national vote in both 2008 and 2012? I wouldn't call that barely, especially in 2008.

Fair enough on the Senators, but Warner likely would've won by a blowout no matter what year he ran in.

Yes, Cuccinelli was a horrible candidate, but so was McAuliffe.