One week left, predict final Virginia margin (user search)
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  One week left, predict final Virginia margin (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: T-Mac v. Youngkin margin
#1
T-Mac wins by 10+		  
#2
T-Mac wins by 8-10		  
#3
T-Mac wins by 4-7		  
#4
T-Mac wins by 1-3		  
#5
Tie (either candidate wins by less than 1)		  
#6
Youngkin wins by 1-3		  
#7
Youngkin wins by 4-7		  
#8
Youngkin wins by 8-10		  
#9
Youngkin wins by 10+		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 166

Author Topic: One week left, predict final Virginia margin  (Read 5905 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: October 25, 2021, 10:54:15 AM »
McAuliffe +6. If this were a race in Michigan or Pennsylvania, Democrats would have every reason to be worried, but Atlas seems to never learn that Virginia is not a swing state. McAuliffe being a subpar candidate matters about as much as Ernst being a subpar candidate did in 2020. I'm sure that in 2029 people will be panicking about how Republicans "really could win VA this time", even if a Republican is president. The ride never ends.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2021, 06:52:17 PM »
Not going to go full-on doomer, but I think I underestimated how incompetent McAuliffe is and how much voters have turned on Democrats (for predictably shallow reasons, but the Democrats bear at least some of the blame for that.) Moving this to Lean D, maybe even Tilt, with McAuliffe winning by 3-3.5. Could be even worse than that if there’s a big ED surge in rural VA. Even if McAuliffe pulls this out, this is still humiliating, and Democrats need a serious game changer next year to avoid a mass extinction in November 2022.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2021, 08:04:03 PM »
Quote from: McAuliffe More Vulnerable than Tester on October 28, 2021, 07:00:49 PM
Quote from: Xing on October 28, 2021, 06:52:17 PM
Not going to go full-on doomer, but I think I underestimated how incompetent McAuliffe is and how much voters have turned on Democrats (for predictably shallow reasons, but the Democrats bear at least some of the blame for that.) Moving this to Lean D, maybe even Tilt, with McAuliffe winning by 3-3.5. Could be even worse than that if there’s a big ED surge in rural VA. Even if McAuliffe pulls this out, this is still humiliating, and Democrats need a serious game changer next year to avoid a mass extinction in November 2022.

Now I hope you at least understand why it was so annoying to see you be so confident/adamant about McAuliffe "inevitably" winning by "more than expected". Tongue I don’t think that confidence was at all warranted in this environment with this D candidate, but +3-3.5 is a reasonable prediction.

I mean, I’m far from the only one or the most “confident” predictor. I think the dooming that a few posters are doing about how VA will now be a Safe R state is the most cringeworthy thing here.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2021, 08:21:44 PM »

What would you say is a good benchmark for the early vote in Fairfax?
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