NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

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I have a hard time believing that 18-29 year-olds in NC-09 are going to go Republican by a 67-30 margin...

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Polls are showing a slight downtick for Democrats this week? Welp, time to give up, I guess. GG, Republicans. #DemsInDisarray #RedWaveIncoming #TrumpHasReelectionInTheBag #IKnew2018WasAnother2016WaitingToHappen

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Looks like NY-01 is next. Not that this poll won’t be interesting, but I wonder why they’re doing this race instead one of the more competitive Upstate races.

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If IL-14 is looking this dicey for Republicans, I have to wonder what they'd find if they repolled IL-06. IL-14 and MI-11 are the only great-looking results for Democrats right now, though. NC-13 and NY-01 look very meh, and the TX-31 poll is unsurprising (I get that Cockburn isn't a great candidate, but do people really think that VA-05 is less likely to flip than TX-31?)

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Hultgren isn't done for, but the fact that Inside Elections has this race at "Safe R" is pretty funny.

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Looks like they're moving to Senate races, and they'll be starting with NV, TN, and TX. *Sigh* wish they'd actually do some competitive Senate races.

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TN and TX aren't flipping unless it's a massive Democratic tsunami, and Heller isn't winning re-election unless Democrats are having a terrible night (though I'm only expecting Rosen to be up by about 3 in this poll, Nevada being hard to poll and all that.) AZ, FL, IN, MO, and MT are definitely more competitive and would tell us more.

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I wonder who’s leading among single Black union members in central Las Vegas.

Obviously Heller, but the question is whether or not he can crack 80% among this demographic.

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The first respondent in TN is a 65+ year old white female Democrat voting for Bredesen who approves of Trump, is voting Dean in the gubernatorial race, and isn't sure who they want to control the Senate? Lmao.

How do you know who she's voting for in the governor race?  I don't see that in the crosstabs.

It's under "Issues and other questions", where they also ask about whether or not respondents approve of Trump.

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I mean, I would've called the race for Heller before that single respondent, tbh.

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The NV poll has got to be rigged, because someone just said that they're voting for Rosen.

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What is wrong with Rosen's campaign? I can't imagine it's that hard to beat someone with Heller's vote record in a Clinton state.

Don’t take this poll seriously until we reach at least 250 people. We’re at 64.

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Trigger warning for Atlas: Rosen is ahead right now.

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The Nevada poll is having a hard time reaching Hispanics.

Nah, that never happens.

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TN and TX are live again, and Beto's cut Lyin' Ted's margin in half.

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I'd be surprised if Bredesen actually lost by 18%, but maybe Democrats shouldn't bother trying to win a state that has consistently trended away from them, has become pretty much a perfect fit for the current GOP, and hasn't elected a Democrat in decades. Also, maybe fundamentals are just a little bit more important than #CandidateQuality

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WACKY JACKY IS NOW LEADING THE UNBEATABLE TITAN

Fake news. It's a NYT poll, they obviously weighed it to favor her.

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Look, I still think Rosen wins so don't call me a concern troll, BUT can someone please tell me why we could not have gotten a better candidate in which this race would not even be close?

The race isn't really particularly close. It is just your imagination telling you that it is close.

And like the polls which were only off by low single digits in Nevada last time, meaning even if Rosen wins by 4-5 that's still quite close and we could have done better.

4-5 points isn't really that close. Yeah, probably someone else could have done better, but it is not like this race is anything like as seriously competitive as many people seem to believe.

You and me must have a different definition of close then. For me anything under 15 points is generally close.

That's VERY lenient. So South Carolina was close in 2016?

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Rosen is also up 12 among those who are certain to vote.

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I think the TX numbers are the most believable, actually. I don't think Trump being slightly above water in TX is hard to believe. I do think Bredesen has sunk to the point where he doesn't have a chance of winning, but I doubt he's going to lose by 18. NV... well, those of you who want to believe that an unpopular incumbent can win a light blue state in a great year for Democrats are free to do so, but I'll be ready to say I told you so when Senator-elect Rosen is projected the winner.

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PA-01 will be next. I'll guess Fitzpatrick +6.

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Are they polling any house erections tonight?!

Well, although much of Atlas would like to see that, I personally wouldn't.

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TN and TX were obviously long shots from the get-go, but have we forgotten that these polls have an obvious R-lean? It gave Andy Barr a one-point lead over McGrath and every other poll, internal and public, have shown McGrath up.

One never wants to be having to resorting to the argument that "the polls are biased against me" less than 1 month before election day.

Amusingly, I read this story just before your post: "Trump believes only polls ‘that have us up’"

So both sides do it.

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Show of hands, who thinks Trump's approval is above water in Nevada, a state he lost?

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Show of hands, who thinks Trump's approval is above water in Nevada, a state he lost?

Wouldn't be too surprising. Likely midterm voters in Nevada are very different than the general election electorate. In the NYT poll, Rosen is running about 6 pts better among the 2016 electorate than likely 2018 voters.

Maybe in 2014, but in a midterm like this? Not a chance. If the GCB is D +7-8, there's no way it'll be even in Nevada.