Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Zinneke]

I think Sanchez had the right idea calling the snap election but he should have waited for the PP-Vox regional governments to embarrass themselves more. Now if anything they are backtracking on for example banning Catalan publications in Valencia. Had he let them a couple of months to enact their widespread censorship efforts and insane Vox figures get headlines, it would have maybe pushed him over the line.

[Zinneke]

I don't know why Junts wouldn't support PSOE, this is like they've just won the jackpot, I don't think they'll have a chance to be kingmakers if the elections are repeated. They will probably ask for a lot, but they should meet PSOE halfway if they really want to get something out of this.

Because their entire identity is built around being pro-independence hardliners, so the only big demands they have are to give Puigdemont amnesty or to hold an official referendum, neither of which leaves room for compromise. Also if a VOX-PP government wins they'll have an easier time pushing for full independence than against a semi-conciliatory Socialist grand alliance.

I'd add to this that Junts also care more about their overall power within the Catalan political context than what happens with Madrid (even something like blocking Vox is irrelevant to them, as they regard it as a Spanish problem), so their negotiating stance is dictated more by how they would look going into a protracted snap election (the Govern in Catalonia currently is a minority ERC one).

It's true that Junts - and ERC - seem to have the kingmaker role at face value but they also know that Sanchez's hands are tied on a range of issues, with the Senate result for example hindering their ability to change judges, or members of his own party including Illa but also Emiliano Garcia-Page who will not want to bend over backwards to satisfy Junts when the former especially must be feeling that he has them "on the ropes" in Catalonian internal political context. And his stock within the party has obviously risen given he has resurrected PSC.

It'll take either a new vote in Catalonia or the whole of Spain to get out of this impass.

[Zinneke]

A PP without Ayuso is a PP that will not be in government.

is Ayuso really that popular across the political spectrum in general? as an outsider looking in, she strikes me as the sort of candidate who would increase the party's vote share but only at the expense of Vox

Tbh in such a hyperpolarised context it's very difficult to see how Ayuso doesn't just suck voters from a now weakened Vox. That's still a net gain for the PP but it would be tight getting her over the majority line.

On the other hand her impact could be felt in that she's a somewhat remarkably effective campaigner, much to the puzzlement of the Left, as she seems to"get" how to mobilise the normies, be controversial enough but without going as far as Vox. Like all the right wing pundits are somewhat critical of Feijoo even before but see Ayuso as someone who can do no wrong.

 Her key weakness IMO (outside the fact that she has corruption cases on her back as a target), is that she will be deeply unpopular with the PP rank and file in "empty Spain". She could run up the PP vote even in places like Valencia with a similar white collar demographic but crash it in places like Teruel, etc..

Ayuso as PM though, outside of campaigning, would be genuinely embarrassing for Spain, on all levels.

[Zinneke]

Sucking voters from Vox might strengthen the right-wing bloc even if PP+Vox doesn't go up at all, right? If Ayuso can get enough voters to switch that PP might not depend on Vox at all, then suddenly a 1996-style arrangement with PNV, or even getting Junts to abstain (less likely), are at least on the table.

Vox won't disappear completely and will likely still be required to govern nationally if Ayuso gets in, meaning no regionalist support. Ayuso will probably fancy her chances of replicated her Madrid act though.

Also PP has firmly tied its mast to not accomodating on the territorial governance issue and Ayuso, even though she is running a shadow early2000s-Convergents-but-for-Madrid government regionally (corruption included), she will bang the war drum of Article 155 and snap elections in Catalonia or locking up some more indepes, as well as institutional tackover of the deep state at a higher level.

We are very far from the days when CiU propped up PP in Madrid or PPC propped up CiU in Barcelona. The landscape has changed. Rivera especially forced PP's hand and moved it to the right on that issue alone.  

[Zinneke]

Sucking voters from Vox might strengthen the right-wing bloc even if PP+Vox doesn't go up at all, right? If Ayuso can get enough voters to switch that PP might not depend on Vox at all, then suddenly a 1996-style arrangement with PNV, or even getting Junts to abstain (less likely), are at least on the table.

Vox won't disappear completely and will likely still be required to govern nationally if Ayuso gets in, meaning no regionalist support. Ayuso will probably fancy her chances of replicated her Madrid act though.

Also PP has firmly tied its mast to not accomodating on the territorial governance issue and Ayuso, even though she is running a shadow early2000s-Convergents-but-for-Madrid government regionally (corruption included), she will bang the war drum of Article 155 and snap elections in Catalonia or locking up some more indepes, as well as institutional tackover of the deep state at a higher level.

We are very far from the days when CiU propped up PP in Madrid or PPC propped up CiU in Barcelona. The landscape has changed. Rivera especially forced PP's hand and moved it to the right on that issue alone.  

Doesn't Ayuso's performance in Madrid at least theoretically translate to a national majority, or close to it?

No, because Communidad de Madrid is a very different place to Spain. Its one of the easiest capitals  in Europe to govern arguably, because its borders aren't gerrimandered, and its territory is easily developed. Alongside a host of other reasons like service sector dominating there, the theoretical blank cheque support you get from the federal government, etc. Ayuso can try to export her Madrid model to the rest of Spain, which is what she will argue, but it doesn't take into account the race to the bottom problem that Madrid (and the two other economic poles in the north) inevitably benefit from.

I don't think Vox will die either (although, eh, parties in Spain which are not the top two seem oddly fragile), but if a PP majority is a reasonable possibility, then mathematically PP/not Vox also kind of has to be one. (I guess I agree that if PP/PNV is a majority, then PP/Vox would probably also be one, and Vox would realistically be a likelier partner.)

Unless there is some sort of serious collapse of PSOE vote I cannot see how the PP obtains a majority without Vox.

[Zinneke]

Did you talk about why Catalan independentist parties passed so badly?

There was a clear ERC --> PSC transfer (and probably some Junts to PSC too). And also abstention from part of the nationalist vote. Assemblea and I think Omnium too called for boycott. Civil society organisations dedicated to "The Process" [of independence, so no autonomist compromises] are very angry at the political parties, with Junts especially being influenced heavily by them. There's also casual voters for nationalist parties angry at both the Process and the psychodrama of the last years. Lastly issue salience over the question of independence is down a lot. It's still a cleavage for all intents and purposes but I imagine the issue of PP and Vox getting their hands on power was a bigger one overall going into this election. I talked to a previously Barcelona based member of ERC and he said he thinks they suffered from trying to push Trias into the Mayorality because many ERC voters are at odds with the members and joined to the independence struggle to fight austerity etc. And not put in anti-environment, pro-bourgeoisie officials into power.

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

This is just a theory of mine, but those light red provinces north and east of Madrid are likely to be impacted by brain drain to the capital. And I can see a certain type of C's voter who voted for them in 2019 because they are quite pissed with the assymetric nature of Spanish federalism but not enough to flag shag for Vox or PP (whose Madrid administration basically siphons all their talent). Back to PSOE they go...

But then there are also very regional trends...maybe some headlines about PP-Vox administrations passing the usual stuff made these voters think twice about it. Maybe also the holiday season meaning you might get some strange trends related to those who don't bother much with politics not turning up.

[Zinneke]

What are the demographics/similarities of the places that trended left? Particularly interested in the north central provinces.

This is just a theory of mine, but those light red provinces north and east of Madrid are likely to be impacted by brain drain to the capital. And I can see a certain type of C's voter who voted for them in 2019 because they are quite pissed with the assymetric nature of Spanish federalism but not enough to flag shag for Vox or PP (whose Madrid administration basically siphons all their talent). Back to PSOE they go...

But then there are also very regional trends...maybe some headlines about PP-Vox administrations passing the usual stuff made these voters think twice about it. Maybe also the holiday season meaning you might get some strange trends related to those who don't bother much with politics not turning up.

While a decent explanation, I don't agree with it the first paragraph. Remember that in 2019, if anything, Cs was more pro-centralism than PP, not less! Furthermore, those central rural provinces were some of the ones Cs did worst in (remember Cs was a very urban party). The phenomenon you mention could work had the "España Vaciada" movement taken off, but it didn't.

I agree, I think people switching for the dogmatic centralism of C's to PSOE is a bit of a stretch but one thing Cs tapped into was the idea that the Communities system in general was unfair to places like Castile-Leon, Cantabria, etc. Basically that the autonomies ensured that some regions were more equal than others. PSOE used to tow that line a lot in Andalusia too.

[Zinneke]

He cannot promise either anyway, unlike Zapatero. If we just go back to the settlement Zapatero had found it would all be just a fever dream. But the Senate and politicised judiciary will stand in the way, and Sanchez has a wafer thin majority. He cannot promise Junts much.

[Zinneke]

Yes and also the King handily shuts down any notion that he isn't giving a fair shot  to one party or another by just defaulting to the largest party. It's not his job to interpret the coalition dynamics, unlike say the Belgian king where the fragmented scene means he has to establish the formateur based on realistic coalitions.

[Zinneke]

If he had nominated Sanchez you'd be criticising him for putting the guy under pressure for forming a coalition within a certain deadline. Chillax and drink a caña, Velasco, the King is an objectionable character but he made the right decision here given Junts is ambiguous about which "bloc" they support. Just default to the largest party in such a situation.

[Zinneke]

Now that Rubiales is gone the outspoken Vox-supporting excrement Javier Tebas needs to follow. Funny how all these top jobs seem to go to right-wingers...

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/Millar_Colin/status/1695025866626007438


This is just insane hahaha. Rubiales makes Infantino's "Today I am ginger" speech look like a professional PR operation.

I still think Tebas is ten times more dangerous than Rubiales, who is just a coked up goon.

[Zinneke]

Lmao

https://twitter.com/sidlowe/status/1694971610212467047

[Zinneke]

Lmao

https://twitter.com/sidlowe/status/1694971610212467047

I mean, back in the day Rajoy already floated running, so it is far from inconceivable. And Rajoy would be a definite improvement; I very much endorse him!

I saw Lahoz's picture floating about. Definitely my meme choice.

[Zinneke]

The most striking thing, nowadays, is the complete cluelessness of many people in high ranking posts. They don't know how to be nor how to behave.

My impression (and its one I've heard everywhere) is that you have to have a much thicker skin with the 24h news cycle and the constant need for PR, so you naturally get this kind of ego to run at the top.

I'll also stick my neck out and say Rubiales didn't commit a sackable offense had he just apologised for doing it in public : the people screeching that it is sexual assault don't know the full story yet and the pressure Hermoso must be feeling shouldn't be discounted. He made a mistake but his handling of it is what is so shocking. Rubiales's account would be credible if it weren't for the fact that the guy is clearly a nutcase. I really think Montero and co wanted desperately to have this as a theme of the world cup victory.

[Zinneke]

We have a mature man aged fifty something kissing and hugging a woman 30 years younger without her consent, in a clear case of power abuse and sexual harasdment, who also pressed the player to exonarate him validate his version. We have a male chauvinist nutcase who stole the protagonism from our fantastic football team, reaching the world press headlines with his deplorable behaviour.  Nothing of this matters, the one to blame is Irene Montero.  Lol

Did I say Irene Montero was to blame? I'm saying that this is again her projecting her politics on to an issue which in a sane country would have an independent investigation before Rubiales goes on COPE to condemn "idiots" and Montero goes to twitter to scream "rape". So far Hermoso has not introduced a plaint for sexual assault. She may in due course. She just asked that the procedures for disciplining Rubiales should be enforced as he committed a professional error (at the minimum).

As for the incident itself, as much as Rubiales is the type, I still believe in the presumption of innocence, even if you Velasco don't, and that the images, as well as her live tiktok after the game, point towards a far more nuanced position than "LOL RUBIALES LITERALLY SEXUALLY ASSAULTED HER AND ABUSED HIS POWER". Everybody from Rubiales and his defenders to you, is again going into El Chiringuito-mode where every topic has to be turned up to eleventy-stupid in terms of hot takes rather than using the minimalist interpretation. And this is why Spain is such a polarised place politically. You and Rubiales are two sides of the same coin, Velasco.

I blame cocaine.

[Zinneke]

We have a mature man aged fifty something kissing and hugging a woman 30 years younger without her consent, in a clear case of power abuse and sexual harasdment, who also pressed the player to exonarate him validate his version. We have a male chauvinist nutcase who stole the protagonism from our fantastic football team, reaching the world press headlines with his deplorable behaviour.  Nothing of this matters, the one to blame is Irene Montero.  Lol

Did I say Irene Montero was to blame? I'm saying that this is again her projecting her politics on to an issue which in a sane country would have an independent investigation before Rubiales goes on COPE to condemn "idiots" and Montero goes to twitter to scream "rape". So far Hermoso has not introduced a plaint for sexual assault. She may in due course. She just asked that the procedures for disciplining Rubiales should be enforced as he committed a professional error (at the minimum).

As for the incident itself, as much as Rubiales is the type, I still believe in the presumption of innocence, even if you Velasco don't, and that the images, as well as her live tiktok after the game, point towards a far more nuanced position than "LOL RUBIALES LITERALLY SEXUALLY ASSAULTED HER AND ABUSED HIS POWER". Everybody from Rubiales and his defenders to you, is again going into El Chiringuito-mode where every topic has to be turned up to eleventy-stupid in terms of hot takes rather than using the minimalist interpretation. And this is why Spain is such a polarised place politically. You and Rubiales are two sides of the same coin, Velasco.

I blame cocaine.

You are blaming cocaine and Montero,  not the man. That's amazing, bro. The "incident" is recorded and everybody around the world coud see it. Power abuse and sexual harasdment.  Norhing more, nothing less

Yes, it was recorded, except the exchange that they had before wasn't. It is still a professional mistake but to equate with a horny guy force-kissing a random woman in a nightclub (which is sexual assault clear as day) is already much if it turns out that Rubiales and Hermoso had an exchange before hand that said "hey let's kiss"...like I have an LGBT friend who is comfortable with a straight friend kissing them as a way of affection, I feel like if they joke about getting married in the dressing room after is telling too. Until we actually hear from Hermoso (and she is now under huge pressure as a result of this circus, and Rubiales is now most to blame for this), then the calls to arrest Rubiales for sexual assault are hyperbole. The normal response to this incident is an independent investigation where both parties give their account without a massive mediatic and political (both general and within the FA...because clearly some people like Javier Tebas want Rubiales gone despite supporting wife beaters party Vox) storm.

(I am blaming cocaine for the ridiculous polarisation on every issue in the Spanish mediatic landscape btw..)

[Zinneke]

Now that Hermoso has finally confirmed it was non-consensual my opinion has changed, but I still feel an independent investigation is better in this case than a media witch hunt on both sides.

It's a pattern of behavior. Just on that same day, he was grabbing himself inappropriately 2 seats down from the Queen and the 16 year old Princess Sofia, which he himself thought was embarrassing enough to apologize for at the same press conference where he flip flopped on resigning. He's a gross machista freak, like so many people in the Hispanic world, and explanations are not excuses. Hermoso was on an Instagram livestream immediately afterwards where she said she didn't like it. Now this man has made everyone in Spain forget about the fact that they won a World Cup.

Are you serious? Probably with this "scandal" women's soccer will have much more visibility. In Spain literally no one sees it. By the way, despite Velasco's attempts to derail the thread with topics that have nothing to do with politics and his fake outrage, you have to go back to topics that do have to do with politics. Like this other rapist released from jail by the "only yes means yes" law who attempted to rape a woman.

https://twitter.com/elmundoes/status/1695100592463421662?s=20

It is totally politically relevant given how scumbags like Rubiales and Tebas are allowed high profile positions while holding reprehensible political views similar to your own. In a society with out wife beaters Vox and the PP machine corruption operation Rubiales and Tebas are drunks in a corner bar, not leading figures of Spanish football.

[Zinneke]

It's true that Rubiales has a PSOE card, but when has that stopped someone from holding reactionary views

[Zinneke]

They attracted exPsOE voters and maybe some genuine liberals but the leading figures behind it were still flag shaggers and PP "types" sociologically too more than anything and the way they normalised Vox for me is an indication of that.

A party that attacked and demonised PSOE more than Vox isn't a serious liberal or progressive party.

[Zinneke]

I think this whole thing is just tiring. The election results showed that Catalan voters, a big majority of them, have had enough of the whole Independence thing. There are other pressing and much more important issues to deal with. And the stubbornness of Junts, and now it seems ERC, on pressing for a the referendum and amnisty shows that these parties have nothing to give to voters other the independence, independence. Not sure if this concerted action by Junts/ERC is just bluff, with them thinking that Sanchéz wants to remain PM so badly that he would do anything and then they would "got him" in their hands. But, that seems too obvious to everyone.

Again Devil's Advocate (because I do think the Process was a fiasco), but how can anti-Catalanists suddenly say "Catalonia has spoken!" for this election yet the past 3 elections when the independence parties won outright majorities there it was "well they don't really represent Catalonia, there's a silent majority, blah blah"
 The best way to look at this issue is that there are 2 fixed blocs like Northern Ireland (with also some moderate elements on the constitutional issue). And that requires compromise, not hubristic boasting about winning the right to speak on behalf of all Catalonia because of one election.

Their stubbornness is perfectly understandable given the stubbornness shown towards them when they won outright majorities.

[Zinneke]

Junts is a right-wing party so I'm sure a de facto Abascal government would be perfectly congenial to Puigdemont on many policy levels as well. We need to stop assuming there is anything inherently progressive about these rich-region separatisms.

Junts is nowhere near as right wing as Vox lol, it's the very definition of a catch all party that has slowly turned into a bizarre true believers cult.

You may want to tarnish Catalan nationalism with "rich region" separatism, the fact remains that it is incomparable to Lega Nord or post-Volksunie Flemish nationalism, in that those two have really emerged almost purely out of wanting to enact right-wing separatism (I would go as far to say they are artificial), whereas Catalan nationalism has a variety of wings, with the overall assumption, believe it or not, that an independent Catalonia would at the very least be far more socially progressive than the median Spain. Given that without Basque and Catalan voters we'd have a Vox-PP government this isn't exactly far fetched. As for economic policy, while Convergencia was clearly a formation of people who cared about their tax brackets a lot, what tipped the scales in Catalonia was the (re-)emergence of ERC as one of the largest parties around the time where the debate in the southern European countries revolved around austerity and public services were being butchered. It isn't a far fetch to say that ERC were successful in turning Catalan nationalism popular tha KS to anti-austerity politics, so calling it "rich region bourgeois nationalism" is too reductionist imo.

[Zinneke]

As I typed the words about Junts, Ayuso right on cue displays the real face of the Spanish “unionist” Right : she wants to ensure all tax of major fortunes goes to Madrid’s coffers rather than Spain’s. Yet for some reason Convergents are the greedy ones, despite following through with their clamor for responsibility (i.e total independence from Spain), as opposed to Ayuso’s Madrid regionalism, which relies on sucking Spain dry of its young talent and its tax revenue in the process, all to be the bean counters of Mercosur, and run a Liz Truss redux operation, only its feasible as Spain will foot the bill for her Trussite paradise, and if Spain won’t foot the bill the Northern European tax payer will, or the ECB. The exact scenario that landed Spain in trouble of course was regional debt not being counted by the brainiacs in Frankfurt, instead they relied on the fact that Spain’s federal level was running a surplus. 

BUT BUT ASI EMPEZO VENEZUELA

[Zinneke]

The ex-PP Catalonia leader and co-founder of Vox has been shot in Madrid.

Terrible political climate in Spain right now. Of course the usual goons on twitter are blaming Sanchez but really what needs to happen is a joint statement of all democratic parties calling for a toning down of rhetoric across the boards, and a reform of the way media presents issues. The latter won't happen though because it drives ratings up to see coked up commentators telling lies.

[Zinneke]

Speaking of amnesties you might not be a fan of... you'd think members of a party founded by Manuel Fraga would be more receptive to this concept.

Alianza Popular was the only party that did not support the amnesty law of 1977. Manuel Fraga stated at the time that “a responsible democracy cannot continuously grant amnesty to its own destroyers”.

 the PP, C's and Vox all were running campaigns  basically saying they would ensure the Catalan nationalist leaders were jailed. How is that any different to what you were saying about the legislative not interfering with judicial process.