Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/MR_officiel/status/1711366755262558382

MR have shut down the coup against Bouchez rumours but have neutered the chiwawa somewhat by bringing in the far more universally popular (just for her COVID briefings, because we are a shallow feckless people) Wilmes as the main character of the campaign.

[Zinneke]

Is Vlams Belang + NVA have an outright majority, would a coalition happen ?

They might be tempted, but they would first want to PS-Ecolo to break the unwritten light cordon sanitaire around PTB/PVDA to justify it.

Regional level coalitions will be harder to form because the locals happen just a few months after and I guarantee you the parties will want to wait before those to not get punished and lose the juicy local mandates that contribute to their cash cow.

[Zinneke]

Charleroi (lol)

https://twitter.com/PDelwit/status/1713807315562856679

[Zinneke]

And our Foreign Minister is still in place after her department handed out visas to Iranian government extremists and she lied about it...

I also think though Van Quick had had enough after getting a battering in the media over "pissgate" and the elements of his private life coming out. In addition to Vld's horrible polling and Dedecker running with the N-VA in West Flanders, making him a prime target.

[Zinneke]

https://www.lalibre.be/belgique/politique-belge/2023/10/27/comment-le-mr-pourrait-seduire-la-communaute-turque-avec-laide-dun-faiseur-dopinion-au-passe-sulfureux-MCVL3FAR4JG2JM7PHDGKH6LJ3E/

MR targeting to Turkish diaspora in Brussels by trying to get ex-PS Saint-Jossd Mayor Emir Kir's number 2 into their ranks. You know, the guys who denied the Armenian genocide, pose with Grey Wolves and intimidate voters at the ballot boxes with some mysterious spooks.

[Zinneke]

Thierry Baudet has announced that Forum for Democracy will take part in the European Parliament election not only in the Netherlands, but also in Belgium. With a 5% threshold in Belgium they won't win a seat, but they could cost VB their fourth one. FVD claim they differentiate themselves from VB by focusing on abolishment (not reform) of the EU, on COVID restrictions, on Central Bank Digital Currency, on opposing NATO and "American imperialism", and on building a network within society. They compare VB to the Dutch PVV. And they announced they will organize rallies in Antwerp, Brussels, Leuven and Luik.

I wonder whether Dries Van Langenhove could be FVD's leading candidate in Flanders.

https://twitter.com/PALNWS/status/1717879639731765507?s=20

Amazing it took this long for there to be parties running in both major Dutch regions

Not really, there are a whole range of issues even right wing populist parties would diverge on, and it isn't as simple as one being more right-wing than the other. Only weird néo-nazi orgs like Voorpost and more intellectual types like De Wever ever tout it.

(And I say this as someone who would very much like a Benelux federation of some sort once confederalism eventually happens).

[Zinneke]

Meh, I honestly the median Belgian is such a docile feckless epicurian type with their 4 sided villa and 2 company cars in the drive way you could probably dissolve Belgium tomorrow under an EU umbrella in an orderly manner. It is a de facto split country/failed state at the institutional level, but the entire opposite on an socio-economic level resulting in the current impasse (and also the high political class cannot agree on how to split it). And my city being the absolute ultimate actor screwed over in this is also worth highlighting: I think those Swedes shot up would have survived if Wallonia and Flanders didn't underfund the city constantly and draw its borders in such an absurd way that ghettoisation was inevitable.

[Zinneke]

I think those Swedes shot up would have survived if Wallonia and Flanders didn't underfund the city constantly and draw its borders in such an absurd way that ghettoisation was inevitable.

What borders do you think were drawn absurdly? The ones of the Capital Region or the arbitrary ones of the municipalities within it? I'd think it'd be mostly the latter, and I don't think that's on Wallonia and Flanders, but perhaps I'm missing something.

Both. The region's borders were roughly designed to be the francophone majority communes in Brussel-Halle-Vilvoorde, but outside of the linguistic debate the city was also partitioned in a way that it would always be a cramped, overpopulated mess come what may, surrounded by paranoid villa-dwelling NIMBY cultists. Even Flemish intellectuals have rightfully pointed out that if the 2 Brabants and Brussels were formed into one region of their own (more historically accurate than modern "Flanders" and "Wallonia") then a 3 way partition/federalisation of the country would be sustainable. Right now Walloon PS régionalistes like Pierre-Yves Dermagne are conspiring with Flemish nationalists for the next state reform to essentially hang Brussels out to dry and have a purely region-based set up. Goodbye social security, child benefit, etc. The only way Brussels would benefit is by not having a pension time bomb, but otherwise it would be one of the poorest regions in Western Europe by far by virtue of being a Bantustan for rich white Belgians to blame their issues on (while sending their kids there to open their negative 2 million turnover microbrewery in Saint-Gilles), despite the fact that if people were taxed where they work rather than where they lived, or if Brussels were allowed to have a congestion charge, it would be sustainable and we'd be able to fund our justice system here properly.

And also, the communes are as such purely for linguistic tug of war reasons (as well as pure greed from the Brussels political class, but then that extends to Flanders and Wallonia). Without the fanning if the flames from foreign adventurers (mostly from Flanders), the issue of suppressing the communes would be marginal : they only exist because Francophones see them as the last line of institutional defence if the Flemish parties block the region.

But yes, it's time many Brussels politicians look at themselves too.

[Zinneke]

Gwendoline Rutten demonstrates the sheer brazenness of the greed of a median Belgian politician : she first announces she is quitting politics because she was snubbed for replacing Van Quickenborn (remember, due to two people being killed because of a typically Belgian scew up. And now today she returns to take up a ministry in the Flemish government, following Bart Somers’ resignation.

Open VLD continue their march towards irrelevance

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/LesNews24/status/1721983358446567440

Van Cauwenbwrgh, the final boss of the corrupt Belgian politician, with a fitting quote.

"I've always thought that it's not going to be half an oyster that will be enough to buy me, you need a whole tub at the very least"

[Zinneke]

A new low for the PTB after failing to condemn the Hamas terrorist attack : Hedebouw, not content with that cynical attempt to attract Default PS voters in the neo-ghettos of Brussels, has now come out and said girls as young as 8 should be allowed to wear the hijab at school. The PTB in Brussels are chomping at the bit at the idea of Israel-Palestine becoming a key electoral issue, alongside a bizarre obsession with criticising GoodMove and a proposed congestion tax (maybe because many of their activists aren't even from Brussels). They are already helping MR reclaim the capital in the process.

[Zinneke]

There's incidentally a developing scandal in Wallonia where senior government ministers knew about contaminated water being distributed to unknowing citizens of the Ath region. Céline Tellier, the ECOLO Minister in charge of water management, is under pressure to resign after it emerged her Flemish counterpart Zuhal Demir sent a letter to her office warning her.

Could potentially be a huge blow to ECOLO because in Wallonia especially these types of issues (natural preservation, campaigns against industrial pollution) are their bread and butter more than the overall progressive package.

[Zinneke]

De Wever is touting a bid to enter the Walloon électoral market with the N-VA....not sure of he's doing this because like VB did he can get extra money from the government for running in more districts, or because he's simply in need of some cheap headlines.

Another bizarre silly season before elections development: Les Engagés and CD&V will run joint fédéral lists in Brussels despite arguably being the most distant parties since their split. In Brussels though we can bet it will be just good old fashion communitarianism.

[Zinneke]

The Belgian political parties are gearing up for the campaign by announcing their heads of list and various recruitment of “civil society actors”, usually to obfuscate the terrible nature of the political class detailed above. Les Engagés are as usual the key promoters of this phenomenon, they've already recruited the former head of the Federation of Belgian Enterprises and the CEO of parapharmaceutical distributor Medi-Markt alongside other randos who have a nice scarf and ideal son-in-law personality.

The PS generated controversy within their own ranks at the Brussels regional level by presenting a list that was decided by the “politburo” of the Brussels leading barons in a brasserie that currently control the party - namely Rudi Vervoort and Ahmed Laaouej, the latter of whom who will lead the PS regional list and has set his sights on a similar smooth transition we've come to expect from the PS in Brussels (shame I don't get any ballet broadcasts when this happens). However, This stitch up caused consternation from Rachid Madrane, an Etterbeek political heavyweight, and Julien Uyttendael, the step-son of Laurette Onkelinkx and son of a prominent Brussels progressive lawyer. While Madrane decried the lack of democratic process and allowing PS members the vote, Uyttendael has left the Brussels PS for the Walloon branch because he emphasizes the Capital city branch has become increasingly “communitarian” in its rhetoric and fails to defend the separation of church and state by trying to court the Muslim vote. 

In a similar move ECOLO went with co-leader Rajae Maouane as Regional list leader in Brussels despite her terrible media performances and Zakia Khattabi as federal list leader

The biggest controversy is now at MR though, although anybody who has been following the last few years is acutely aware of how shameless the “baron politics” and “presidentialisation” of the party leader and his sponsor the Michel clan in the party has become. Their own politburo via Great Leader Bouchez (who posts his book alongside a biography of Sarkozy and a biography of Napoleon) announced that Charles Michel will be resigning his EU Council presidency gig early and be parachuted as European election list-leader for the MR. Cue rightful accusations that Michel is not honoring his commitments and instead prioritizing his career. Equally pissed off by this development is EU Commissioner Didier Reynders, who wanted the head of European list for similar reasons (there is virtually zero chance an MR politician gets a senior EU gig for a long while). Instead Reynders is now gunning for the Council of Europe top job.


Meanwhile, the federal Vivaldi government continues to be in a state of paralysis : many top civil service spots (that in Belgium are of course often political appointments done via horse trading practices within the sitting federal government rather than based on merit, go figure) are not being filled because the horse trading continues to be particularly difficult with Franck Vandenbrouck of Vooruit accused of engaging in blackmail over certain policies he wants implemented in exchange for his approval of candidates. Alexander De Croo is really the main political victim of the dysfunction of the Vivaldi : his party, which is now his own little plaything, is in danger of not reaching the threshold in two to three Flemish provinces, and polling at 7% in what would be a historic defeat.

[Zinneke]

Chez Nous will be lucky to get a seat. It still wouldn't surprise me given the amount of astroturphing coming from the US and Russia desperate to convince normies that far right politics is cool and edgy and that these people aren't foreign state sponsored assets, but Chez Nous is still a bona fide neo-fascist organization at grassroots level and the political successor of the Belgian FN, with the Holocaust denial included in the ticket. Any kind of media exposure would be actually disastrous for them, whereas with a genuinely well run Right-WIng Populist organisation would benefit from the Cordon Sanitaire rules being relaxed.

There's much more chance that GLB splits from the MR if he underperforms and the more centrist wing oust him and the feckless Michels, then sets up his "conservative-populist" party.

[Zinneke]

Very distasteful to accuse a Jewish poster of supposedly supporting some sort of Holocaust denial - and that in relation to a party of which I know literally nothing and have only commented that I don't expect them to get in. You know nothing about my family history and the Holocaust, so think before you comment. Let's also remember this is coming from someone who attacked a far-left Israeli on October 7 for supporting his country defending itself. What's it with Belgians on this forum and their problems with Jews?

Also nice job derailing the thread.

Which far left Israeli did I criticise on October 7th? I criticised one poster who wanted an immediate retaliation of exterminating the entire population of Gaza, I then also said that Israel had a right to intervene in Gaza.

You have a consistent record of supporting any random right-wing populist party and trying to, in Mean Girls parlance "make it happen" just so your team, as if it were a soccer match, scores an extra goal. You seem to disregard all the dog whistles of the neo-Nazis and assorted anti-Semitic conspiracy theorists and instead cheerlead what amounts to a foreign capture of EU countries by these so called patriots, many of whom (including Wilders, who in fairness isn't a neo-Nazi) are funded to the hilt by foreign governments.

[Zinneke]

Michel Claise will be number 3 on Defi's federal list. He is the prosecutor who uncovered Qatarigate then was forced to step down because his son was running a CBD marijuana business with the son of Marie Arena, an MEP implicated in it. Classic Défi tone deafness.

Also, Fabien Maingain, son of Olivier Maingain, will be high up on the Brussels regional list. His first remarks? "Who your father is shouldn't determine your place in society". Lol.

[Zinneke]

A Vlaams Belang elected official got caught spying for China btw. One wonders how well the TikTok algorithm works in their favour.

[Zinneke]

Its so often these far rightists who claim to love their country more than anybody else, isn't it.

Funny that.

It's because far right parties and ideology are so morally bankrupt and overt about putting individuals above community that they attract the most brazen grifters even by political class standards.

If the far right end up as hegemonic in Europe we'll go back to being a continent that is controlled by 3-4 capital cities located several thousand miles away.

[Zinneke]

How much every party spends on social media ads (facebook)

In dutch-speaking Belgium, the far right spends the most followed by the conservative party (N-VA) and the marxists (PVDA).

In french-speaking Belgium, the far left (PTB) spends the most, followed by center/center-left Les engagés and MR (conservative-liberal).

Vooruit introduced legislation attempting to ban political ads on social media, while the Greens call for a cap on spending.

Is Worker's Party spending a lot or it only seems that way because other parties have not fully started their campaings yet?

I think it's more that other parties still have campaign managers who are several steps behind in terms of media saviness than VB and PTB/PVDA. They also often have their (increasingly pointless) German style party think tanks to fund, and other such traditional ways of campaigning.

[Zinneke]

Another PS "princeling" found to be dealing drugs, this time cocaine : son of Fadila Lalaan (the woman who managed to create a massive black hole in the budget of Brussels' waste management agency), who works in the cabinet of prominent PS figure and Education Minister Caroline Desir. This comes after Marie Arena's son's house was searched and they found 250k in cash. Incredible that these nepobabies feel they need a side income. But then also, peak Belgium.

[Zinneke]

Yes, they will for sure lose mayoral scarves and majority participation in East and South Brussels...also because the PS, their natural coalition partner, are focusing on the North and West now.

Not necessarily good for the city though, because while Good move can be criticised the pro-car agenda of MR is terrible and the Region will still likely have a progressive majority while communes turn blue, causing the usual tit for tat mess.

[Zinneke]

For those who have been watching EU politics carefully, farmer protests are popping up all around the continent and Belgium has been no exception, resulting in the farmers’ interests taking centre stage in political discourse. This means we have seen scenes that heavily resemble that of the farmer protests in the Netherlands, with sadly many far right activists also showing up with their usual simplistic slogans, but also Big Ag (represented by the powerful Boerenbond in Flanders, that has been traditionally tied to CD&V) joining in. There were also riots in the centre of Brussels, but because these guys were farmers and not climate activists, they were given chocolates instead of assaulted.

First, a word about the timing and manner of the protests in an EU context. Not only is the EU holding elections very soon, but there’s also the small matter of a Mercosur-EU joint trade agreement that needs to be signed off and ratified. That’s where Belgium is already under scrutiny of course, because of what happened with CETA. While Magnette was the visible face of the Walloon resistance to CETA, the actual deep politics within it showed that cdH also played a role because it was, they, not the PS, who were afraid of populism. This Mercosur agreement could a new touchy subject for the PS and cdH successor party les Engagés though.

The response of the Vivaldi parties has obviously been to try to do a “grand écart” strategy (doing the splits to try to satisfy everyone, which is the nature of such a broken coalition). MR and Georges-Louis Bouchez for example, who basically have become a peak populist party that tries to see where the wind blows on the latest media story and then trying to piggy back it. In this case the MR was releasing their party program in a staged event and decided to invite some symbolic farmers, as well as wheel out Senior Minister Willy Borsus, the Minister of Agriculture boasting about how the Walloon government still opposes the Mercosur deal and MR’s credentials defending the agricultural sector. This kind of backfired though, since both a member of the main agricultural union in Wallonia and even some natural MR types started highlighting that MR’s MEPs have backed legislation promoting free trade agreements with Mercosur and harsher environmental standards.

ECOLO though are bearing the biggest brunt of animosity, given one of the key demands of virtually all the farmers unions regardless of size is for environmental regulations to be relaxed, and we saw in the Netherlands that the BBB was especially effective at using this as a way to gather right-wing populists who only care about sticking it to the Establishment. Céline Tellier bravely agreed to meet the protestors but was whistled and harassed to the extent that police intervention was required.

 On the other side of the linguistic border, to their credit, N-VA have had the most consistent stance on the issue, with De Wever coming out immediately criticising the style of the way the protests were done, saying that blocking roads and slowing the day to day of ordinary citizens was not the right thing. He also criticised the farming industry as having “rested on their laurels” for years and failed to adapt. The Flemish environmental minister Zuhal Demir is the face of the government campaign to reduce nitrogen emissions and has been very stubborn about her desire to see this through. It’s a very risky strategy for the N-VA though: frustrated farmers are already flocking to Vlaams Belang who promise to give them zero environmental regulations, protectionism and other benefits that are simply impossible without violating EU law, but then cakeism is very much a feature of most of the farmers’ lobbies rhetoric.

[Zinneke]

I only did the poll on Chez Nous as I was surprised when I found how walloon politics seemed to avoid the 'right wing populism'/'anti inmigration right' so common on other multi-party european countries. Not that I support them.
On farmer issues, I suppose the Workers Party will try to get the leftists voters sympathetic to the farmers protests.

It's known that the Francophone side of the country completely deplatforms all far right politicians (and keep in mind the Popular Party under Modrikamen was not deplatformed), so yeah, bona fide neo-fascists are simply not given exposure enough in linear mainstream media compared to in Flanders where they love to invite VB onto a show because it drives ratings up. Worth noting though that La Libre and the tabloid media in Wallonia is slowly getting more extreme in rhetoric in a bid to compete on social media.

The Workers Party do try to ride the alterglobalist wave, and unlike most of the other Francophone parties tgeir opposition to Mercosur is vehement and genuine. Whether it helps them will depend on a lot of factors. This issue will have some salience particularly in Luxembourg province and West Flanders/Limburg on the other side of the border, but other issues will pop up too.

[Zinneke]

A classic Brussels politics moment : Émir Kir was excluded from the PS after numerous controversies over his stance on the Armenian genocide and inviting Turkish extreme right MHP mayors to his local fiefdom Saint-Josse. Now he's rumoured to be doing a deal with the MR leader. It goes to show the partiocratic blob have no ideological substance behind them. Bouchez also recently recruited an ex-PTB member just because he was a "community leader". Yet Bouchez will also be the first Francophone leader to copy right-wing discourse from France about "seperatism of Muslims from the State" and other such garbage.