Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

[Zinneke]

It doesn't work like that...
And PTB PVDA are not the pcf of yesteryear.

[Zinneke]

The King has refused their resignations. What a Chad.

[Zinneke]

does the king doing that even mean anything in the long term? if a coalition can't be formed it just sounds like prolonging the inevitable

To quote pre-formateur Rousseau : "if the king asks me to make the impossible possible, I will try to make the impossible possible". 2 day extension for just the same old drama.

He has clearly stated that he does not want to work with GLB and I don't blame him after the latter's despicable behaviour just to extend Wilmes and his 6 ministries further. I would also much rather work with De Wever too, who is a reliable partner, who understands government, this country and has perspective outside of his immediate ambition. Being a historian rather than a career politician must help in that respect.

But if Vivaldi is revived it will be with cdH in exchange of MR.

[Zinneke]

Our country is such a joke

A post transferable to many places, these days.

I think we are reaching new heights of sickening cynicism here though, especially given the situation. People are losing their jobs, passing away and getting mental health problems while a bunch of politicians argue and leave the table, arrive late to meetings to annoy each other, don't follow protocol, go to the media and start talking themselves up (and that just describes Georges-Louis Bouchez, who is like a caricature of the post-modern political figure)...all for what? Who can get the most ministerial posts. I don't think any country in the developed West can seriously square up to Belgium's failures at a high political level. It's why I personally have taken it upon myself to consider vote extreme left next election even though I don't agree with a lot of the PVDA/PTB's world views. And, more seriously, I actually wouldn't care that much if VB and N-VA had a majority in Flanders. I would hope we can guarentee basic human rights but that's about it. The political class as a whole deserve to be snookered, to lose their jobs. This has been going on for 15 years now. I just checked a Belgian forum I frequent and its archive posts from 2007 - the same kabuki dance and media stunts (that time it was Leterme who was the master of disaster, with Reynders in close competition - somehow those guys have been promoted elsewhere). It has to stop, there has to be a complete overhaul of the parties and figures that dominate this country.

And I should add that small countries like ours with so many levels of power means you don't really get to choose your political class here. There is the illusion of choice of course, and many people are complicit with the partiocracy. But when Bouchez, who was high up on his list in Hainaut, is rejected by his own constituents but parachuted onto the Senate and elected party president, you can clearly see how he is imposed on us rather than the other way round. And the PS, cdH and ECOLO and all the equivalents across the linguistic border are no better. Only a massive electoral anomaly such as the extremes together winning an outright majority can maybe change this and signal the end of their charade, which is only kept alive by their complacency. After all, fail at the federal level? Here's a post at the regional level. Fail at the city council level? Off you go to the provincial level. Fail at regional level? Head of list at the European elections, or go get pickled in the party Think Tank. Its all a sham.  

[Zinneke]

Well it looks like GLB was the one to kneel down and swallow. Despite his objections he accepted a nota and now Magnette and (Alex) De Croo Jr are formateurs. MR still objects to Magnette as PM but they're hardly in a position to lecture anymore.

Any other time I would have taken my hat off to Conner Rousseau, who by raising the stakes threatening elections just played GLB and MR like a spinning top, completely outflanking them and now taking away a lot of their extreme demands. But after hundreds of days they can all  off

Also I would think Ned Flanders is CD&V, whilst Homer Simpson is sp.a

[Zinneke]

How is PVDA-PTB reacting to all this?

EDIT : well here's your official reply :

https://www.rtbf.be/info/belgique/detail_jeudi-en-prime-raoul-hedebow-considere-la-vivaldi-comme-la-continuite-de-la-suedoise?id=10592590

Hedebouw thinks it will be a continuation of Michel I. I wouldn't have gone down that road tbh, but PTB to their credit have really been focussing on the economy and health services rather than solely anti-political sentiment. I would have said that Vivaldi was what it is : a last gasp hail mary of the traditional parties all trying to secure their interest group priorities, hoping that the madness 2010s will dissipate enough by 2023. Vivaldi is the ultimate Party Cartel, to use Thierry Baudet's analysis, which is far more applicable to this country than to the Netherlands.

[Zinneke]

Yep, pure scum. Also the official opposition, given N-VA is in power at the Flemish Region. Only them, PTB-PVDA and cdH (lol) will actually go into the next election as real opposition. All the others are in power somewhere. 

Our political class have given them the political oxygen to thrive. Although their bread and butter are quite clearly neo-fascist, its evident where their new voters come from. Every person who voted for a Vivaldi party in the last 20 years, myself included, has to reassess how we have let one of the richest, most prosperous regions in Europe become a fascist haven. And if there is a new, far more serious Black Sunday in three years time, every single established senior politician of Vivaldi should leave public office permanently.

[Zinneke]

A guess of national seat numbers if the results were like in that poll: VB 35-40, PVDA 5-8, PTB 15-20. Averaged and put together, it works out to 62 seats.

14, 14, fourteen seats short of a NazBol majority. In 2020, in a peaceful, prosperous Western European country.

Dear Belgian politicians, how did you manage to fxck up this much?

Its a long story, I suspect.

Of course. It starts from the very inception of the Belgian state and its parliament. Some of its elites back then are still in control in the background or at the forefront now - De Croo Jr as protracted PM is case in point - His dad is bezzie mates with the King for a reason.

Its also, from a more generalist perspective, a serious challenge to Consociationalism. Can it survive as a model in the current political space, where there is a mixture of social atomisation that causes voters in both Wallonia and Flanders to not vote as if they were in a consociational democracy. And at the same time a massive contrast between the hyper-postmodern, accelerated Flemish political scene that broke down traditional pillars and voting patterns and gradually influences itself from Anglo-Saxon entrepreneurial political practices - we had De Wever last weekend now wanting a Anglo-Saxon FPTP-style electoral system in Flanders! - and then the archaic Francophone one where the same vote banks do what they do to cling on to certain categories of the population largely defined by "old school" cleavages - socio-economic, what type of school (religious vs public vs "free" school), who has the strongest union in your sector, and so on. Both a willingness to move on from consociationalism and a failure to update it to modern times. Resulting in a stalemate.

This will, at the very least, be an interesting social experiment. Probably more Czechoslovakia than Yugoslavia as it is still fundamentally an issue with elites rather than grassroots violence or competition over public goods. But it'll be a state breakup which in true Belgian fashion will be surreal, artificial, and full of contradictions. A lot of bluster without actually any contestation. I will likely not update this thread anymore once I go over the Vivaldi agreement and who got what ministry. I'll try to make some actual maps and dable in the Dutch thread as there's an interesting election there but the soap opera ain't from me anymore for a long time, especially as I will likely be gone from the country and I don't have, with COvid, the same contact with the politico types.

[Zinneke]

Also, since everyone here seems very pessimistic, how at risk is Belgium really of breaking up? And if broken up, how would the region now look like?

Obviously Wallonia and Flanders would separate, but the big question is, what happens to Brussels, and the corridor linking Brussels to Wallonia?

Would Flanders give up Brussels and said corridor? Would it still take them despite Brussels not wanting to leave?

Bonus points if you somehow make Brussels a free city or some sort of free city or "EU capital district"

I suspect this problem is the biggest reason for Belgium not having split in two yet

That, and the massive public debt.

[Zinneke]

If Melissa Depraetere becomes chairwoman of Vooruit, i would maybe vote Vooruit (social democratic)

Oh yeah we forgot to mention they changed their name from sp.a to Vooruit (which in Dutch means "Forward" or "Avanti")

Also I still like Rousseau. He´s our generation, he schooled Bouchez twice (albeit with Magnette and De Wever in the background) and he gives zero iotas about traditions and customs (turns up to the King wearing sneakers and to negotiations with his back pack and t shirt - which is what this charade deserves). But I really think sp.a/Vooruit is unsalvageable.

[Zinneke]

Pretty sure Rousseau plays Atlasia, yeah.

[Zinneke]

We come 49 days short of our own world record without a government

Its ok, they'll almost certainly have a chance to break their own record next election cycle.

Anyway, can a moderator/admin please change the title to something regarding this momentous occasion of a federal government being formed.

[Zinneke]

Why is it such a big issue that there is no majority in Flanders? It's not like Wallonia complains when there isn't a majority there? (Or Brussels for that matter?)

What Laki says + in general Walloons will be less loud about those things because they are less loud about politics in general. Same for Brussels I guess. In terms of issue salience the economy is far more important to them than institutional power. In Flanders these kind of subjects are more important on the doorstep.

But its not true that there wasn't a fuss when MR went into the Swedish Coalition : the Francophone press litterally named it the Kamikaze coalition and PS grandees said they were traitors.


I was also in favour of either Arizona or the PS-NVA "Danish" agreement. But I think I'm in a minority of Francophones who would accept that. In the end the choice was either that or Vivaldi.

[Zinneke]

Low down of the Cabinet.

Alexander De Croo VLD becomes Prime Minister. De Croo is most famous for one, being his father’s son, and two, for collapsing the government in 2009 over BHV, leading to the record breaking “no government” spell and political crisis. Since then he has been a quiet background schemer in a strong portfolio (Finance Minister) with ambitions for the PM spot. He is very close to the Anglo-Saxon world and is strong minded about digital transition and modernisation. In this case he benefited from both the PS candidate and Wilmes cancelling each other out as MR and PS can’t stand each other having such a public role. Plus its high time for a Flemish PM.

The PM in Belgium does all the head of government formalities, including EU summits, but is also present in the Kern, where the most senior ministers of each party sit with the PM and take executive decisions. The Kern is as such a major part of Belgian politics on a day to day basis. Here are the people going to be its protagonists, as Vice-Premiers for their parties :

Sophie Wilmes (MR) remains in government as Minister of Foreign Affairs, after she must have impressed during EU council summits and her international image, trilingualism and senior woman status also helped. She will also be MR’s representative in the Kern as Vice-Premier and she has likely gained even more influence in the party structures themselves after GLB’s ridiculous antics potentially cost her the PM gig and MR some policy concessions.

Georges Gilkinet is a fossil of ECOLO by now, and has plugged his way to the VP position. A largely inoffensive Namurois, he is on the Kern by virtue of his long association with Jean-Marc Nollet and hard work as head of their parliamentary group. He takes over the very difficult National Rail and Mobility portfolio. The National Rail has cripling debt and Mobility in Belgium is a mess given the split between Federal, Regional and Local commune powers.

Vincent Van Quickenborne gets the Vice-PM spot for VLD (De Croo being technically neutral) and also the Justice portfolio, which will get extra funding at last. Van Quick has a lot of experience for his age having been State Secretary for a big chunk of the noughties and 2 Minister gigs after. He’s close to De Croo and thus also close to Lachaert. Quite right-wing for a Belgian on a lot of issues, could be tough on Justice to boost his profile.

Frank Vandenbroucke makes a comeback as sp.a-Vooruit minister of social affairs. A guy who took on his own party when it was governed by the Tobback clan, he is a surprise addition by Rousseau, who is showing he wants the party to be more open. He’s also well respected and arguably one of the most intelligent people in the government, to the extent that only De Wever probably stands up to him intellectually.

Petra de Sutter for groen becomes, as far as I can tell, the first transgender minister in Belgian and European history and will leave her MEP role to get a VP spot and the Ministry of Public Admin and Public companies. De Sutter was previously a medical academic, highly regarded in her field, and continued to bring health issues such as cancer when she entered politics.

PS have Pierres-Yves Dermagne as their Vice-Premier. Hailing from Rochefort he has been instrumental in the development of his region and as a Namurois with a technocratic approach appears to be a compromise candidate between the more loud PS branches. He is also an outspoken Walloon regionalist. He becomes Minister of the Economy

CD&V will have Vincent Van Peteghem as their VP and head of Finance. With De Crem and Koen Geens out of the Ministries you can clearly see CD&V trying desperately to get some “Fellow Kids” fresh blood into the top jobs, and this guy seems to be the party president stooge. This relatively inexperience Flemish parliament member with a background in teaching at management schools is a push for that more younger image (for a Christian Democrat party).

I’ll do a quick summary of the other ministries when it is officially announced.

[Zinneke]

MR is a clown car right now. Not only was Bouchez forced to accept another Michel family member (Mathieu) as Federal Minister due to the pressure from the Brabant Wallon Mafia wing of the party, he also had to include Denis Ducarme at a Walloon Ministerial Post to replace Valérie De Bue and compensate Ducarme's lack of federal portfolio. Only problem is : MR agreed to a law in the sitting majority stating that at least a third of your ministers had to be women. So Ducarme can't take up his Ministry.


Anyway the other ministers are :

Francophones :

Minister for Pensions, Social Integration, Poverty and Beliris : Karine Lalieux (PS)

Minister of Defense : Ludivine Dedonder (PS, "close" to the mayor of Tournai if you get my drift and now apparently also has a fan in the form of Theo Francken)

Minister for the Economic Recovery : Thomas Dermine (PS), a sort of Pete Buttigieg-like figure (Solvay Business School, Harvard, Mckinsey) who is shadowing Magnette a lot in the hopes of a political career.

Minister for Middle Classes, SMEs and Agriculture : David Clarinval (MR), big ally of GLB.
 
Secretary of State for Digitalisation goes to Mathieu Michel, Charles Michel's brother (MR).

Environment Climate and Sustainable Development : Zakia Khattabi (ECOLO) returns after her unsuccesful attempt to get into the courts. She will be a figure of hate on the Flemish Right. No need to explain why with her name and political views.

Minister for Gender equality and diversity : Sarah Schlitz (ECOLO). The german speakers can stop laughing at the back there! She is a young activist type who knows how to work the party base. Let's see how she does as Minister.

Flemish side :

Budget : Eva de Bleeker (VLD)

Interior : Annelies Verlinden (CD&V) - Antwerp-based so strategic move by the party to try and compete there after Peeters destroyed their image in the Diamond City.

Immigration : Sammy Mahdi (CD&V) young Brussels upstart of Morroccan background. Symbolic significance, but expect him to be hard on immigration.

Development and cooperation + City development : Meryame Kitir (sp.a) also of Morroccan origin and the only Limburger in the government.

Energy : Tinne van der Straeten (groen), Brussels-based.

I don't really know the Flemish ministers that well, as there is clear intent of renewal, but they certainly got the best ministries.


Overall I am proud we are one of the first countries to have a trans minister, and one who isn't overtly outspoken about it. That said there's a lot of "jobs for the boys/girls" culture in this government and a few inexperienced faces. In terms of the program : they promise a lot of investment without raising taxes other than a digi-tax on services that is difficult to implement, so I imagine more borrowing for future generations to pay or inflation to take care of I imagine. Stijn Baert made a twitter thread about the economic reforms of the Vivaldi but its hard to translate, maybe Laki can have a crack. The key issue of Nuclear phase out was also a hot topic and it will be discussed at the end of the mandate but if we meet certain conditions we will decommission the power plants. Otherwise there is still a debate about pensions being 1500 bruto or netto (remember this was actually a strong VB talking point last election, promising higher pensions while NVA was - rightfully -  ambiguous).

That's it for me, I'm happy to answer questions but I won't be posting much updates unless the government collapses (which it could, inevitably, given its Belgium).

[Zinneke]

From the polls, it seems like the PTB-PVDA has hit their short-term “limit” with gaining institutional power through elections. While the Labor movement and Student movement might have some wiggle room, they’ve hit a ceiling I think.

Meanwhile VB has much more room to eat what’s left of the liberals and established Right (NVA)

Does it? I would have thought a significant number in those groups who haven't gone over to them by now are unlikely to ever do so.

Agree with regard to VLD and CD&V, but everyone who votes N-VA is at least suspect for potentially voting VB in the future if they feel like it's a choice between VB and centrist/left-wing politicians.

There are many N-VA voters who prefer the Vivaldi parties to VB.

[Zinneke]

Wilmes in intensive care with Covid-19.

[Zinneke]

Belgium has 3 times the rate of infected Covid-19 per 100.000 people than any EU country, I think only Czech Republic might compete. Right now as the BBC main headline there is the story of how Doctors being tested positive are told to continue working unless they display serious symptoms.

Our federal level introduced new measures, then each region released their own stricter measures to various degrees (Flanders significantly less hit than Wallonia until today, will probably change now). Then of course you had the conveyor belt of mayors trying to grab headlines with even stricter measures, and Pierre-Yves Jeholet, head of the Wallonia-Brussels Federation, first saying schools would stay open then revving back the same evening.

[Zinneke]

Exactly why are the PTB-PVDA retracting in the polls? Have they gotten in any scandals or is the National mood not “there” with them now compared to before?

They are not retracting in the polls, if anything they are gaining in Wallonia and only slightly losing in Flanders (to sp.a's gain).

[Zinneke]

Exactly why are the PTB-PVDA retracting in the polls? Have they gotten in any scandals or is the National mood not “there” with them now compared to before?

They are not retracting in the polls, if anything they are gaining in Wallonia and only slightly losing in Flanders (to sp.a's gain).

How are they losing in Flanders and Brussels?

My guess is that they all remained in the margin of error but the media wanted to make some movements and generate headlines (more common than I often acknowledge on this thread).

[Zinneke]

There's also just the general sociological, socio-economic conditions at play here. Wallonia and Brussels are both extremely well suited for a PVDA-PTB type party for different reasons. The former because of depressed heavy industry, strong union culture, and the class cleavage dominating anyway - not to mention a terrible political class. The latter for having educated intellectuals all competing for dirt money contracts (think Mélenchon's base), and alter-globalists or anti-US hegemony types, sometimes from a migration background - oh and it also has a terrible political class.

Flanders is not. In the few places it is sociologically like Wallonia (Zelzate, mining towns in Limburg), it overperforms relative to its national average.  

[Zinneke]

Thanks for the information.

What has the coalition around the De Croo government managed to accomplish?

Most of what it has done is related to Corona. In the background there is also the preparation for a new state reform given the federal politics of the country is broken and this is just a last Hail Mary for belgian compromises. I ain't following the legislative cycle anymore.

MR are trying to act as opposition from within with Bouchez so self-obsessed he cannot stop himself from talking to journalists, literally every ing week.

[Zinneke]

Riots in Brussels after an april fool's joke to get people to go to a rave in Bois de la Cambre means 3000 people gather. Police start horse charges and water cannon action. Youth respond with projectiles. Now the more revolutionary elements are getting involved with the police.

Overall, I would say the governments plan to deconfine raised expectations sky high, and now people are at breaking point. Won't be surprised if these measures continue to not be respected and incidents emerge.

Meanwhile Georges Louis Bouchez is now found out : he made a huge deal of protecting police from violent protestors, but also tries to undermine the government's social distancing measures. He's caught in between a rock and a hard place.

[Zinneke]

Because every political debate from France has to be imported here, the Francophone Belgian political scene is having a massive internal feud on whether public officials are allowed to wear the headscarf.

This latest debate was triggered by a complaint against the Brussels public transport service, the STIB-MIVB, which is the largest employer in the Brussels Capital region. The plaintiffs claim that the STIB not allowing headscarf wearers is discrimination. A court found in favour of the plaintiffs. The STIB political council could not agree whether to appeal, because Défi and ECOLO have diametrically opposed views and they are in the majority. They sent it to the regional government, and the regional government is now at risk of collapse because Défi are absolutely instransigeant on state neutrality, even advocating laicité.

Belgium has state neutrality as opposed to French laicité. This means that whilst the state funds officially designated religions and their activities, the state employees themselves must remain "neutral". This means no religious symbols must be displayed when in public office. ECOLO BXL want "inclusive neutrality" to accept headscarves in public offices, but ECOLO Wallonia have stayed dead quiet. MR want the status quo to remain. Défi want laicité so the end of religious hold on education. PS have been torn apart by this issue so released a typical belgian compromise (only it actually makes sense to me) of making a distinction between public officials who are in contact with the population and the "backroom" officials who should be allowed to hold religious symbols. PTB have ECOLOs position in all but name.

This has now blown up, thanks to Rajae Maouane of ECOLO who wants to reconcile Feminism and Islam as her favorite hobby horse just as we go through a pandemic recovery, but also the media's darling MR president Georges-Louis Bouchez. To make matters worse, Federal government appointed the same time this was happening a woman with a headscarf and previously of ECOLO label to a "Commissioner" position (the details escape me but basically she went from being a political apointee of ECOLO to a representative of the state). De Croo initially said all the Federal government coalition members were on board in the Kern, where the top ministers from each party discuss these things. However, Clarinval of MR was "instructed" by his party leader to tweet that actually MR opposed it, causing friction between MR and their coalition partners.

This is all a total waste of time with more pressing issues, but it looks like it will have profound consequences on the Brussels regional government (particularly Défi's role in propping up the PS-ECOLO tandem since they split from MR), as well as MR's relationship with its federal government partners due to GLB seemingly backstabbing De Croo.


We also had polls recently showing Vlaams Belang still with a healthy lead and NVA second. In Brussels MR are doing much better (probably due to being much more flexible with Horeca and also picking off certain clientelist vote winners from cdH) but in Wallonia they are losing a few points.

[Zinneke]

The Belgian federal government is having its first genuine risk of collapse. This is due to the ongoing crisis of undocumented migrants in two University buildings and a church in Brussels, who have begun a hunger strike. These undocumented migrants range from newcomers to people who have been here 10-15 years and worked off the books.  Because of Covid their situation has been insurmountable economically and decided to go on hunger strike to ameliorate their status.

Sammy Mahdi, the migration minister, refused to give them collective amnesty and settled status. He wants to treat them on a case-by-case basis. They wish to have collective amnesty as had been before in 2010 and 2019 with some undocumented migrants. Following their hunger strike, Mahdi has hardened his position. He believes ceding would set a dangerous precedent. He has offered them medical support for free.

Yesterday PS, ECOLO and PTB released the same statement word for word calling on Prime minister De Croo to intervene. De Croo still trusts Mahdi with the dossier but put a bit of pressure today. However, the PS have now made clear that if one migrant dies due to the hunger strike then they will be ready collapse the federal government.