NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Suburbia]

Any idea on who would win which Borough? About the only one I'm sorta confident in is Adams winning Brooklyn.

Yang probably carries Manhattan, Queens
Adams probably carries Brooklyn, Bronx and Staten Island
Wiley could carry Manhattan or Queens

Adams will get the older Black vote; the young Black vote is probably undecided because of Adams's support of stop and frisk and the fact that he is a former cop.

[Suburbia]

She'll probably start rallying for Adams or Garcia or whoever's more progressive.

I will put $10 on AOC not hosting a rally for Eric Adams.

This. If Adams is the nominee, will AOC endorse the Green candidate or abstain from voting? Adams is a cop....

[Suburbia]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/dem-nyc-mayoral-candidate-ray-mcguire-dont-more-taxes

Ray McGuire (R)

No, it's called common sense. You can't tax your way to oblivion. Deal with it, a Republican is not getting elected anytime soon in NYC, and there are moderate Democrats like McGuire who appeal to Manhattanites and Staten Islanders.....

New York City is still the financial capital of America and the world---you can't overtax and then get angry when the city and state's population declines and corporations move to low-tax places like TX, NC, FL, GA and VA.....

You have to moderate on taxes----if Wall Street, etc. leaves who will keep the economic base in NYC?

[Suburbia]

So what are the chances for the candidates?

At this point? Basically 50-50 for Yang and Adams. Morales is the only other candidate trending up at the moment, but she has yet to top 10% in any poll and mostly seems like a pet candidate of the Extremely Online left. She'd have a slim chance in a standard race with seven people if high turnout among that wing happened, but not with ranked-choice.

What about Wiley?

[Suburbia]

Interesting how Change's Post-NYT endorsement RCV simulation has Yang and Adams tied for the 7th through 10th rounds. Guess a 50-50 split is better than 53 Adam-47 Yang?

I'm really curious what the crosstabs look like.

Adams Strongest Among African Americans; Yang’s Support Is Broader

While Adams is in the top four among all major racial and ethnic groups, his lead is due primarily to his strength among African American voters: 41% plan to rank him first.

Andrew Yang, meanwhile, is the first choice of 34% of Asian American voters -- higher than his support among any other major demographic group. But he is in first or second place among nearly all gender, age, and racial/ethnic groups, and in all five boroughs.

NYC mayoral elections come down to race and ethnicity. Adams, Wiley and McGuire will do well with Black voters. Yang will do well with Asian voters. Black and Asians don't get along in NYC, Yang will HAVE to address that

[Suburbia]

Tuned in to see Adams give a non-answer/denial when asked about previously endorsing Guliani and being a self-described conservative Republican, comparing it to Hillary Clinton's past. C'mon, seriously??

A lot of Black people voted for Giuliani in the 90s despite police brutality, he probably voted for Giuliani over Ruth Messinger in 1997

It's Adams, Yang, Wiley or McGuire's race to lose.....Adams is streaking because a lot of people don't like crime and Adams is tough on crime, he is a Black cop who understands the struggle but knows that you cannot be antipolice in NYC---it doesn't work, he could probably stand up to Pat Lynch and the Long Island brigade because he knows them

[Suburbia]

A Republican who could have won if he ran would have been Martin Golden...he has name ID and could have given the Dems a run especially on crime

[Suburbia]

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is endorsing Wiley.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/16/nyregion/maya-wiley-hakeem-jeffries-endorsement.html

Jeffries and Eric Adams don't get along...both are ambitious central Brooklyn politicians with the same base of voters: Black voters from a range of poor to middle class professionals that live in the Fort Greene area...

[Suburbia]

Who is Wiley's base?

[Suburbia]

We're so doomed.


Caution of course, as this is Memerson. But bad stuff folks. Please rank Yang 5th to stop Adams.

Yea, stop saying stuff like abolish the police, stop smearing every LEO in NYC, let them do their jobs the right way and arrest people that need to be arrested and acknowledge that there is a crime problem in NYC, you can do police reform and make sensible arrests; being soft on crime is how Giuliani/Bloomberg got elected; Eric Adams will not be Dinkinized.

[Suburbia]

We should talk a little bit more about the Republican mayoral field.....

Fernando Mateo is more qualified than the clown Sliwa. Yes, Sliwa is the id of the NYCGOP, but Mateo is a Hispanic man who came from nothing to become a millionaire.....breaking the obstacles....in America...

The American Dream.....

However, he does not live in New York City. From a 2000 article....

MATEO’S fervor has everything to do with his roots.

He came to New York from the Dominican Republic at the age of 2, the youngest in a family of 10 children.

After a stint as a cab driver, Mateo’s father, Kristobal, opened a bodega. Mateo’s mom, Carmen, raised the kids. Mateo fell in with the wrong crowd at Seward Park HS, prompting him to drop out in his sophomore year.

It didn’t stop Mateo.

“I can’t forget where I came from or the people who made me what I am today,” said Mateo, recalling how he started a carpet business as a 17-year-old high-school dropout.

“My first customers were the people living in the housing projects. They trusted me and gave me a chance.”

Through relentless work, his business flourished. He then branched out into construction and, later, a money-wire firm that caters to Dominican immigrants.

Mateo’s up-by-the-bootstraps success story, combined with the publicity over his guns-for-toys program, landed him on Oprah Winfrey’s show twice, and had then-President Bush designate him as one of the nation’s “thousand points of light.”

Today, he lives in a tony house in Irvington, a Westchester suburb, and owns a vacation home in the Dominican Republic, where he travels often with his family – and perhaps harbors some political ambitions.

https://nypost.com/2000/04/19/activist-is-millionaire-with-cause/

Mateo has an apartment in the city, but has a home in suburban Westchester County. A lot of people are like that, they work in NYC and want to run the city, but when they run for office, they don't even live in the city.

Andrew Yang doesn't live in NYC either....

[Suburbia]

-snip-

I mean, we could talk about Lady Gaga’s chances as well, why not?

Let's talk about the percentage Republicans will get in November...21%, 25%, 27%?

[Suburbia]

This whole electoral count mess shows that election reform is needed.

What a shame.

Did Adams win Staten Island?

[Suburbia]

If Adams loses the primary, does he wage a write in campaign?

[Suburbia]

de Blasio did well in 2013 on Staten Island for a progressive Democrat, because Joe Lhota, who was a technocratic Giuliani Republican who was pro-business, was the MTA chair.

SI has transportation problems, and Lhota was an underwhelming candidate.

In 2017, Malliotakis won SI because she was a hometown favorite.

Adams centered his campaign around crime, being a consensus builder with the police-community relations.....

Adams would win SI over Sliwa by 2-3 points.....

[Suburbia]

If Adams loses, it is probably because of the Dinkins effect....Black mayoral candidates have been stained because of Dinkins, a lot of old-school white people still despise Dinkins (SI, Bay Ridge)....even some moderate Giuliani Democrats that voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg.....

Even if Adams is moderate on crime, a lot of these white voters and even some white liberals view Dinkins as one of the worst mayors in NYC history......

My question is can Garcia win Black voters enough to have a large margin in November and can Garcia handle the NYPD?

[Suburbia]

Does Adams run a write in campaign?

[Suburbia]

If Adams loses, it is probably because of the Dinkins effect....Black mayoral candidates have been stained because of Dinkins, a lot of old-school white people still despise Dinkins (SI, Bay Ridge)....even some moderate Giuliani Democrats that voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg.....

Even if Adams is moderate on crime, a lot of these white voters and even some white liberals view Dinkins as one of the worst mayors in NYC history......

My question is can Garcia win Black voters enough to have a large margin in November and can Garcia handle the NYPD?

This isn't the early 90s, I doubt people care about Dinkins enough to make a difference for Adams. Also I have to think that alot of the older people who didn't like Dinkins are probably republicans now(locally) or have moderated their views since then.

A lot of white voters that still live in NYC despise Dinkins....when they see a Black mayoral candidate, it reminds them of Dinkins....

[Suburbia]

If Garcia wins, she really needs to connect with Black voters.

[Suburbia]

Ranked choice is looking like a failure for NYC....

I really did not understand it at all.....

Does it work well in Maine?

[Suburbia]

Adams will be the next mayor---deal with it.

He is right on crime---liberals look foolish defending high crime rates and saying stupid things like "dead cops, etc"

I hope he cleans up the NYPD----that is his No. 1 priority other than the sluggish NYC economy

[Suburbia]

I wonder if Mayor Adams will dump Police Commissioner Shea, and pick someone who can seriously bridge the gap.....it doesn't even have to be a Black or Latino commissioner, because NYC has had Black commissioners like Benjamin Ward, who was Ed Koch's police chief and things did not change......

[Suburbia]

I wonder what bronz/Suburbia's family thinks of Adams's victory.

Some of them voted for him in NYC......

[Suburbia]

NYC voters are going to find out some unpleasant truths about this guy.
https://twitter.com/samraskinz/status/1420145064542621701

Adams is a moderate Democrat. NYC elections should be nonpartisan like Michael Bloomberg said years ago.....

He's trying to appeal to moderate white voters

[Suburbia]

NYC voters are going to find out some unpleasant truths about this guy.
https://twitter.com/samraskinz/status/1420145064542621701

I'm fully in favor of a primary against this guy in 2025. Someone should step up.

Why? You can't stand moderate Democrats who don't want to abolish police, ICE, prisons and the military? They are plenty of moderate Democrats like Adams who will not let that happen...

NYC is not going to go to a leftwing utopia.