NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread
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Author Topic: NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread  (Read 125611 times)
Crane
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2075 on: July 01, 2021, 11:53:20 PM »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

I'm sorry, you don't get to decide who the "real" New Yorkers are. That's completely ridiculous

I can say what I want, and I'm going to call the gentrification that has destroyed Manhattan what it is. Garcia is their candidate.

Voting on xenophobia and attacking outsiders, but woke!

NYC is a city that is and always has been for immigrants. That shouldn't change. But it's a unique situation that's developed and accelerated in the past 15 years that the people who make the city run have been pushed farther and farther away from where they grew up, many can't even afford to live in the same borough they work (often in essential positions.) That's a problem. There needs to be a massive increase in affordable housing construction, and it needs to be high-density. Garcia is not the candidate who will do it, she is the candidate of the luxury apartment and condo developers that have destroyed whole neighborhoods that once gave NYC its legendary character.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2076 on: July 02, 2021, 12:52:58 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2021, 12:56:24 AM by Zaybay »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

I'm sorry, you don't get to decide who the "real" New Yorkers are. That's completely ridiculous

I can say what I want, and I'm going to call the gentrification that has destroyed Manhattan what it is. Garcia is their candidate.

Voting on xenophobia and attacking outsiders, but woke!

NYC is a city that is and always has been for immigrants. That shouldn't change. But it's a unique situation that's developed and accelerated in the past 15 years that the people who make the city run have been pushed farther and farther away from where they grew up, many can't even afford to live in the same borough they work (often in essential positions.) That's a problem. There needs to be a massive increase in affordable housing construction, and it needs to be high-density. Garcia is not the candidate who will do it, she is the candidate of the luxury apartment and condo developers that have destroyed whole neighborhoods that once gave NYC its legendary character.

You haven't bothered to read into the platforms of any of the candidates, huh?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2077 on: July 02, 2021, 08:35:30 AM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2078 on: July 02, 2021, 09:42:05 AM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

If the BoE isn't slow on the count, then any ballot that's not facing a curing issue will be included in that count.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2079 on: July 02, 2021, 09:55:57 AM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

If the BoE isn't slow on the count, then any ballot that's not facing a curing issue will be included in that count.

Thanks. Are we expected to get the updated RCV another day though I assume?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2080 on: July 02, 2021, 09:58:04 AM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

If the BoE isn't slow on the count, then any ballot that's not facing a curing issue will be included in that count.

Thanks. Are we expected to get the updated RCV another day though I assume?

Yeah, we’re expected to get the updated RCV count at the same time that issue-less absentees are entered into the count. Theoretically, this could all be over on Tuesday 7/6, but that’d require there being no more ballots facing a curing issue of some kind, which is unrealistic.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2081 on: July 02, 2021, 11:29:33 AM »



Round 6 (Big 3 + Yang) estimation



Round 7 (Big 3) estimation



Round 8 (Garcia v Adams) estimation

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Skunk
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« Reply #2082 on: July 02, 2021, 11:57:05 AM »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.
So I'm guessing you supported Joseph Crowley then too, right?
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #2083 on: July 02, 2021, 12:05:34 PM »

Gorgeous maps!
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2084 on: July 02, 2021, 12:24:57 PM »

Anyway, back on track - are we expecting the full 125K to be dumped all on Tuesday 7/6?

If the BoE isn't slow on the count, then any ballot that's not facing a curing issue will be included in that count.

Thanks. Are we expected to get the updated RCV another day though I assume?

Yeah, we’re expected to get the updated RCV count at the same time that issue-less absentees are entered into the count. Theoretically, this could all be over on Tuesday 7/6, but that’d require there being no more ballots facing a curing issue of some kind, which is unrealistic.

The number of ballots still subject to curing should be quite low. Not zero, but not enough to make a difference unless the final result is within a few hundred votes at most.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2085 on: July 02, 2021, 01:20:18 PM »

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2086 on: July 02, 2021, 04:31:16 PM »



Not everything is doom and gloom.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #2087 on: July 02, 2021, 06:48:20 PM »

Bragg winning is amazing. Just amazing.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2088 on: July 02, 2021, 07:24:31 PM »

Absentees are looking good for Garcia.

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Crane
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« Reply #2089 on: July 02, 2021, 07:24:48 PM »

Bragg winning is amazing. Just amazing.

The Hillary Clinton golden touch at evidence once again.
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Crane
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2090 on: July 02, 2021, 07:28:08 PM »

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

Hoping Adams pulls it out over Garcia.

Ideally, Wiley, but fewer Garcia fans ranked her than the inverse. Stay classy, Garcia fans.
Regretting your support for a candidate because of what demographics supported them and how preferences flow is pretty absurd, especially when you consider who the opposition is.

I will still support whoever is the nominee, but I despise the gentrification of Manhattan and those downtown areas of Brooklyn. It's clear to me that Adams followed by Wiley was most popular in the real New York. If all the gentrifiers supported Garcia, there must be a reason for that, she must not be interested in fixing the housing crisis.

I'm sorry, you don't get to decide who the "real" New Yorkers are. That's completely ridiculous

I can say what I want, and I'm going to call the gentrification that has destroyed Manhattan what it is. Garcia is their candidate.

Voting on xenophobia and attacking outsiders, but woke!

NYC is a city that is and always has been for immigrants. That shouldn't change. But it's a unique situation that's developed and accelerated in the past 15 years that the people who make the city run have been pushed farther and farther away from where they grew up, many can't even afford to live in the same borough they work (often in essential positions.) That's a problem. There needs to be a massive increase in affordable housing construction, and it needs to be high-density. Garcia is not the candidate who will do it, she is the candidate of the luxury apartment and condo developers that have destroyed whole neighborhoods that once gave NYC its legendary character.

You haven't bothered to read into the platforms of any of the candidates, huh?

As I said in my comment that was infracted for possibly valid reasons last night, I obviously have as anyone who voted should have. I just question whether Garcia will prioritize that. Almost every candidate, more or less, had a similar housing policy.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2091 on: July 02, 2021, 08:01:58 PM »


So, already a ~6.4% shift & that's before even factoring in 2nd+ choices (i.e., where Garcia has already shown that she gains a ton of ground in)? Put a fork in Adams. All hail & bow down before Kathryn Garcia, the 110th Mayor of New York!
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #2092 on: July 02, 2021, 08:57:43 PM »

If Adams loses, it is probably because of the Dinkins effect....Black mayoral candidates have been stained because of Dinkins, a lot of old-school white people still despise Dinkins (SI, Bay Ridge)....even some moderate Giuliani Democrats that voted for Giuliani and Bloomberg.....

Even if Adams is moderate on crime, a lot of these white voters and even some white liberals view Dinkins as one of the worst mayors in NYC history......

My question is can Garcia win Black voters enough to have a large margin in November and can Garcia handle the NYPD?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2093 on: July 02, 2021, 09:04:04 PM »



Pray for efficiency, but expect the expectable.
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Crane
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2094 on: July 02, 2021, 09:26:23 PM »


So, already a ~6.4% shift & that's before even factoring in 2nd+ choices (i.e., where Garcia has already shown that she gains a ton of ground in)? Put a fork in Adams. All hail & bow down before Kathryn Garcia, the 110th Mayor of New York!

Bloomberg 2.0, the candidate of the "Upper West Siders for Safer Streets" crowd.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #2095 on: July 02, 2021, 09:32:06 PM »

Does Adams run a write in campaign?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2096 on: July 02, 2021, 09:36:00 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2021, 09:39:24 PM by Oryxslayer »

NYC BOE has updated the RCV site with non-absentee projections for the offices of Borough Presidents and City Council.

The estimated final RCV rounds of Democratic Borough Presidential races subject to RCV:

Queens President: 51.1% Richards, 48.9% Crowley

Bronx President: 53% Gibson, 47% Cabrera

Brooklyn President: 55.3% Reynoso, 44.7% Simon

Manhattan President: 54.4% Levine, 45.6% Hoylman  

Staten Island President: 65.4% Murphy, 34.6% Honor


I would love it if someone more in the know than myself could go through all the city council projections that are now up there. These races are more interesting, but arguably require more background info.



Fossella in a close AF race that will be decided by absentees.

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2097 on: July 02, 2021, 10:13:18 PM »


So, already a ~6.4% shift & that's before even factoring in 2nd+ choices (i.e., where Garcia has already shown that she gains a ton of ground in)? Put a fork in Adams. All hail & bow down before Kathryn Garcia, the 110th Mayor of New York!

Bloomberg 2.0, the candidate of the "Upper West Siders for Safer Streets" crowd.

A lot of posters have already spoken at length as to how your characterization of her is a misguided one, so I'm not gonna pile on except to say that she's better than Adams' apparent desire to bring Rudy's overly aggressive style of policing back.
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Crane
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2098 on: July 02, 2021, 10:16:53 PM »


So, already a ~6.4% shift & that's before even factoring in 2nd+ choices (i.e., where Garcia has already shown that she gains a ton of ground in)? Put a fork in Adams. All hail & bow down before Kathryn Garcia, the 110th Mayor of New York!

Bloomberg 2.0, the candidate of the "Upper West Siders for Safer Streets" crowd.

A lot of posters have already spoken at length as to how your characterization of her is a misguided one, so I'm not gonna pile on except to say that she's better than Adams' apparent desire to bring Rudy's overly aggressive style of policing back.

I don't buy it yet. I'll be happy to be proven wrong, but I am very convinced at this point that her administration will resemble Bloomberg's in practice (which to be fair wasn't irredeemable like his predecessor.) But as far as things like the Hudson Yards development go, that was disastrous for the city.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2099 on: July 03, 2021, 11:21:48 AM »

Betting markets have Adams leading again which seems.... very off
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