Next House GOP Leader? UPDATE: Scalise Won't Run if McCarthy Does

[Mr. Morden]

Politico had a story on this question a couple of days ago.  They note that McCarthy is close to both Trump and Pence:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/09/mccarthy-scalise-speaker-house-republicans-492807

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[Mr. Morden]

If Trump is still President next year, McCarthy. He's called McCarthy "my Kevin." McCarthy has done a massive suck up to Trump. In this situation the White House typically has some weight in recommending who becomes the House Speaker. (Some, not totally). 90% of Republicans still like Trump and distrust the GOP in Congress, so you can expect Trump's views to be important, unless there's extenuating circumstances that prevent him from being influential in the race.

It might be a different dynamic if the race is for House Minority Leader, because you need to just have a majority of the conference instead of 218.

I'd say McCarthy's *more* likely to lead the caucus if the GOP is in the minority, because, as you say, you only need majority support in the caucus to be elected Minority Leader, and I think he can get that.  If the GOP actually holds on to the House though, then the whole thing is more unpredictable, because a handful of rebels in the caucus can hold the process hostage.

[Mr. Morden]

Maybe Scalise wants McCarthy to be the face of losing this November so he can come back in a few years when the GOP might take back the House.

But Ryan will still be Speaker in November.  He just said he's not leaving until his term ends in January.  So how will McCarthy be "the face of losing this November" in that case?

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/12/politics/steve-scalise-kevin-mccarthy-running/index.html

Scalise says he won't run if McCarthy does

So the question is, is he angling for Majority Leader, and Speaker once McCarthy falls, or Governor in 2019...

Most likely the GOP loses the House in November, so McCarthy becomes Minority Leader and Scalise becomes Minority Whip.  In a few years, McCarthy becomes unpopular because every congressional leader becomes unpopular.  At that point, McCarthy gets pushed out and Scalise takes over.

[Mr. Morden]

I think McCarthy won't be elected since he's essentially hated by the Freedom Caucus.

If the GOP is in the minority, then he doesn't need the votes of the Freedom Caucus in order to win, since all he'd need would be a simple majority of the GOP caucus to be elected Minority Leader.