CPAC straw poll: Paul 25% Rubio 23% Santorum 8% Christie 7% Ryan 6% Walker 5%

[Mr. Morden]

I figured I might as well start the CPAC commentary thread.  Yes, it's still a week away, but people are already using the Christie thread to discuss the guest list, so I figured I'd move that here.  CPAC's meeting is being held from Thursday March 14 to Saturday March 16.  The straw poll results will be announced on the 16th at 5pm Eastern.  We don't know who'll be on the straw poll ballot yet, but that'll probably be announced at least a couple of days before the meeting.

This is the first major cattle call for 2016.  Quite a few potential 2016ers will be speaking.  The program is here:

http://conservative.org/cpac/2013/

Among the speakers, we have:

Kelly Ayotte
Michele Bachmann
Jeb Bush
Eric Cantor
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
Ken Cuccinelli
Newt Gingrich
Bobby Jindal
Mitch McConnell
Sarah Palin
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Mitt Romney
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Rick Santorum
Tim Scott
Donald Trump
Scott Walker

*Not* invited because they're conservative heretics or something: Christie and McDonnell.

UPDATE: The 23 names that will be on the 2016 straw poll ballot:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/14/cpac-2013-straw-poll-signals-wide-open-2016-presid/?page=all#pagebreak

NH Senator Kelly Ayotte
AZ Governor Jan Brewer
KS Governor Sam Brownback
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson
NJ Governor Chris Christie
TX Senator Ted Cruz
Former IN Governor Mitch Daniels
SC Governor Nikki Haley
LA Governor Bobby Jindal
OH Governor John Kasich
NM Governor Susana Martinez
VA Governor Bob McDonnell
Former AK Governor Sarah Palin
KY Senator Rand Paul
IN Governor Mike Pence
TX Governor Rick Perry
OH Senator Rob Portman
FL Senator Marco Rubio
WI Congressman Paul Ryan
Former PA Senator Rick Santorum
SC Senator Tim Scott
SD Senator John Thune
WI Governor Scott Walker

UPDATE:

Here are the results:

http://conservative.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/CPAC-Straw-Poll-2013-Results-1.pdf

Paul 25%
Rubio 23%
Santorum 8%
Christie 7%
Ryan 6%
Walker 5%
Carson 4%
Cruz 4%
Jindal 3%
Palin 3%
Other 14%
Undecided 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Ron Paul won the straw poll in both 2010 and 2011.  Last year, however, CPAC banned Paul's PAC, Campaign for Liberty, from attending the meeting, and Paul did poorly, with Romney winning.  Last year's results:

Mitt Romney - 38%
Rick Santorum - 31%
Newt Gingrich - 15%
Ron Paul - 12%

That was in the middle of the 2012 primaries, when those were the only four candidates left.  Since we're in an odd numbered year now, this year's straw poll ballot will probably have about 15 names on it.  Any guesses as to who they'll include?

[Mr. Morden]

I think Rubio and Paul fight for first, with Cruz taking a surprising third or fourth (behind Santorum maybe) and then the rest of the field.

Ryan should do well, though I suppose how people do in the speeches could be a factor.

Remember, these are largely movement conservatives who attend this thing.  I don't think Santorum will do that well with them.  Santorum has more appeal to the Evangelical identity politics types.  The only reason he did so well last year was because he was the de facto "not Romney" candidate.

[Mr. Morden]

can people vote for someone who isnt there? I think Christie might get some votes.

We don't know what who will be included on the ballot yet.  They'll probably release the ballot in a few days.  But in past years, the organizers haven't been bound by who attends the meeting in determining who gets included on the ballot.  They usually just pick people who've been speculated on in the media as potential candidates, so there's a good chance that the ballot will include Christie.

And of course, there are people speaking at the conference who *won't* be on the ballot.  They're not going to put Mitch McConnell on the straw poll ballot, since everyone knows he's not running for president.

[Mr. Morden]

GOProud is still not invited to CPAC.  However, two GOProud board members will be attending, and participating in a panel discussion:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/03/07/finally_the_gays_have_come_back_to_cpac.html

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[Mr. Morden]

So the conference starts tomorrow, but as far as I can tell, the straw poll ballot still hasn't been released.  We still don't know who they're going to include.  Oh well, hopefully we'll find out later today.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the schedule of CPAC speakers who are also possible 2016 candidates (and I'll throw in Romney for the heck of it to appease Politico, though I really don't see him running):

Thursday

1:15pm Marco Rubio
1:30pm Rand Paul
3:15pm Rick Perry

Friday

9:30am Paul Ryan
12pm Rick Santorum
1pm Mitt Romney
2:25pm Bobby Jindal
7:30pm "Ronald Reagan Dinner", which includes a speech by Jeb Bush

Saturday

9:15am Scott Walker
9:30am Newt Gingrich
9:45am Michele Bachmann
10am panel discussion that includes Ben Carson
12pm Sarah Palin
5pm Straw poll results are announced
5:10pm Ted Cruz

Note that Paul follows immediately after Rubio, just like with the SotU responses.  Also, yes, Cruz gives the wrapup speech after the straw poll results are released.  Perhaps a sign that Cruz himself won't be on the straw poll ballot?

Anyway, most of the proceedings of this should be viewable on C-SPAN....at least on their website.

[Mr. Morden]

From Twitter, an unfortunate juxtaposition in the schedule:



Also, there will be an Obama zombies party on Friday:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/12/cpac-zombie-party_n_2862325.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

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Lol at that bolded part.

[Mr. Morden]

So the straw poll ballot will include both Christie and McDonnell after all.  23 names in total:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/14/cpac-2013-straw-poll-signals-wide-open-2016-presid/?page=all#pagebreak

NH Senator Kelly Ayotte
AZ Governor Jan Brewer
KS Governor Sam Brownback
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson
NJ Governor Chris Christie
TX Senator Ted Cruz
Former IN Governor Mitch Daniels
SC Governor Nikki Haley
LA Governor Bobby Jindal
OH Governor John Kasich
NM Governor Susana Martinez
VA Governor Bob McDonnell
Former AK Governor Sarah Palin
KY Senator Rand Paul
IN Governor Mike Pence
TX Governor Rick Perry
OH Senator Rob Portman
FL Senator Marco Rubio
WI Congressman Paul Ryan
Former PA Senator Rick Santorum
SC Senator Tim Scott
SD Senator John Thune
WI Governor Scott Walker

The 2016 presidential primary question won't be the only one on the straw poll ballot:

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[Mr. Morden]

Those 23 names include everyone you would expect and then some.  There are just four names of people who've actually said they might run who one could've conceivably imagined them including but aren't listed:

-Michele Bachmann (unlikely to run, but Politico did confusingly claim she might be thinking about it: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3539072#msg3539072 )

-Mike Huckabee (has said he might run, but I think the chances of him running are pretty much nil....though PPP still likes to include him in their polls)

-Jon Huntsman (has said he might run, but it's quite a longshot....and this is CPAC, how many votes do you really think he'd get?)

-Morry Taylor (a 3rd or 4th tier candidate in any case...I mean, would you bother including Buddy Roemer in a 2012 straw poll?)

[Mr. Morden]

In 2011, the last time we had a crowded ballot with many names, it was:

Paul 30%
Romney 23%
Johnson 6%
Christie 6%
Gingrich 5%
Pawlenty 4%
Bachmann 4%
Daniels 4%
Palin 3%
Cain 2%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 2%
Thune 2%
Huntsman 1%
Barbour 1%
Other 5%
Undecided 1%

Though Paul and Romney's PACs were both organizing for the straw poll to try to win it, so that's why they both broke 20% and no one else broke double digits.  Last year, as I said earlier, Paul's PAC was barred from participating at CPAC in an official capacity, so that's why he did poorly, and the result was (taken when there were only 4 candidates left in the 2012 primaries):

Mitt Romney - 38%
Rick Santorum - 31%
Newt Gingrich - 15%
Ron Paul - 12%

Don't know what the status of Paul's PAC is now.

Anyone want to be adventurous, and predict the %ages of all 23 names on the ballot? 

It is of course possible that one or more candidates will skew the results again this year by trying to organize to win it....but that in itself would be an interesting story, since who would bother to organize for a presidential straw poll three years before the primaries?

[Mr. Morden]

I don't see Jeb Bush on the list?

Ah, good point.  Didn't realize he was missing.

But yeah, he apparently asked not to be included:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/03/14/174311086/jeb-bush-opts-out-of-cpac-straw-poll

[Mr. Morden]

Prez16 has Youtube videos of the speeches by Paul, Perry, and Rubio here, along with letter grades:

http://www.prez16.com/2013/03/grading-cpac-day-1.html

Rubio: A
Paul: B-
Perry: D

I haven't watched Perry's speech, but it sounds like he was almost as loopy as that infamous "New Hampshire maple syrup" speech:

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Anyway, the best CPAC coverage is on Weigel's blog:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel.html

He links to these CPAC Craigslist ads, which unfortunately are probably parodies:

link

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Is that real or a parody?  I report, you decide.

Finally, some of Weigel's CPAC pics:

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan just spent his entire speaking time talking about the budget.  Not exactly a play to win the straw poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum will speak at the top of the hour.  From Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/312578584705392640

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[Mr. Morden]

Trying to watch Jeb Bush's speech, but the echo on the audio is horrible.

In any case, here are Prez16's letter grades for Day 2's speeches:

http://www.prez16.com/2013/03/grading-cpac-day-2.html

Santorum: A
Jindal: B-
Ayotte: C
Ryan: B

[Mr. Morden]

David Catanese at therun2016.com also gives out letter grades for speeches from both days:

Jindal: B+
Paul: A
Perry: C-
Rubio: A-
Ryan: B
Santorum: B

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I'm going to bed soon.  I'll probably still be asleep when the straw poll results come out.  But please post the results in this thread once they're announced.

And again, they're supposed to announce it at 5pm Eastern, but CPAC seems to be chronically running behind on their schedule, so it'll probably end up getting delayed.

[Mr. Morden]

Results:

http://conservative.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/CPAC-Straw-Poll-2013-Results-1.pdf

Paul 25%
Rubio 23%
Santorum 8%
Christie 7%
Ryan 6%
Walker 5%
Carson 4%
Cruz 4%
Jindal 3%
Palin 3%
Other 14%
Undecided 1%

They don't specify the breakdown of "other", so we'll probably never know who placed 11th-23rd.

Also, 2930 votes cast.  41% were students.  52% were age 18-25.  66% male/34% female.

"Personal core beliefs":

77% My most important goal is to promote individual freedom by reducing the size and scope of government and its intrusion into the lives of its citizens

15% My most important goal is to promote traditional values by protecting traditional marriage and protecting the life of the unborn

8% My most important goal is to secure and guarantee American safety at home and abroad regardless of the cost or size of government

US government use of drones

kill US citizens:
favor 9%
oppose 86%
don't know 6%

spy on US citizens
favor 24%
oppose 70%
don't know 6%

[Mr. Morden]

Who won the last one in 2012?

Romney.  Of course, there were only four choices then: Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, (Ron) Paul, since we were in the middle of the primaries, and those were the only four candidates left in the race.  Ron Paul won it in 2011 though.

[Mr. Morden]

http://therun2016.com/rand-edges-rubio-in-cpac-straw-poll/

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[Mr. Morden]

Weigel on the straw poll:

link

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Also, pics from the CPAC Zombie Party:





And Grover Norquist after dark:

[Mr. Morden]

CPAC's pick for POTUS:

[Mr. Morden]

Politico: Winners & Losers of CPAC:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/cpacs-biggest-winners-and-losers-88947.html?hp=t1



Hint in the pic above: winners = top row; losers = bottom row

[Mr. Morden]

Who's the guy in the top row between Paul and Walker ?

Ben Carson, 7th place finisher in the straw poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3625914#msg3625914

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPYLiXqfwGA