CPAC straw poll: Paul 25% Rubio 23% Santorum 8% Christie 7% Ryan 6% Walker 5%

[Mr. Morden]

I figured I might as well start the CPAC commentary thread.  Yes, it's still a week away, but people are already using the Christie thread to discuss the guest list, so I figured I'd move that here.  CPAC's meeting is being held from Thursday March 14 to Saturday March 16.  The straw poll results will be announced on the 16th at 5pm Eastern.  We don't know who'll be on the straw poll ballot yet, but that'll probably be announced at least a couple of days before the meeting.

This is the first major cattle call for 2016.  Quite a few potential 2016ers will be speaking.  The program is here:

http://conservative.org/cpac/2013/

Among the speakers, we have:

Kelly Ayotte
Michele Bachmann
Jeb Bush
Eric Cantor
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
Ken Cuccinelli
Newt Gingrich
Bobby Jindal
Mitch McConnell
Sarah Palin
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Mitt Romney
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Rick Santorum
Tim Scott
Donald Trump
Scott Walker

*Not* invited because they're conservative heretics or something: Christie and McDonnell.

UPDATE: The 23 names that will be on the 2016 straw poll ballot:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/14/cpac-2013-straw-poll-signals-wide-open-2016-presid/?page=all#pagebreak

NH Senator Kelly Ayotte
AZ Governor Jan Brewer
KS Governor Sam Brownback
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson
NJ Governor Chris Christie
TX Senator Ted Cruz
Former IN Governor Mitch Daniels
SC Governor Nikki Haley
LA Governor Bobby Jindal
OH Governor John Kasich
NM Governor Susana Martinez
VA Governor Bob McDonnell
Former AK Governor Sarah Palin
KY Senator Rand Paul
IN Governor Mike Pence
TX Governor Rick Perry
OH Senator Rob Portman
FL Senator Marco Rubio
WI Congressman Paul Ryan
Former PA Senator Rick Santorum
SC Senator Tim Scott
SD Senator John Thune
WI Governor Scott Walker

UPDATE:

Here are the results:

http://conservative.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/CPAC-Straw-Poll-2013-Results-1.pdf

Paul 25%
Rubio 23%
Santorum 8%
Christie 7%
Ryan 6%
Walker 5%
Carson 4%
Cruz 4%
Jindal 3%
Palin 3%
Other 14%
Undecided 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Ron Paul won the straw poll in both 2010 and 2011.  Last year, however, CPAC banned Paul's PAC, Campaign for Liberty, from attending the meeting, and Paul did poorly, with Romney winning.  Last year's results:

Mitt Romney - 38%
Rick Santorum - 31%
Newt Gingrich - 15%
Ron Paul - 12%

That was in the middle of the 2012 primaries, when those were the only four candidates left.  Since we're in an odd numbered year now, this year's straw poll ballot will probably have about 15 names on it.  Any guesses as to who they'll include?

[CountryClassSF]

I will be attending CPAC this year -- The lineup is great. Very excited

[Maxwell]

So Newt "I Support Gay Marriage" Gingrich is allowed to show up? Newt "I think climate change is real and i did a PSA with Nancy Pelosi about it" Gingrich? Jesus, c'mon on conservatives, be consistent.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Rubio will win.

[Blue3]

Rubio will win.

Ted Cruz has a shot. Even Santorum has an outside chance.

Will the Paul people be able to vote this year? Rand could steal it.

[Maxwell]

I think Rubio and Paul fight for first, with Cruz taking a surprising third or fourth (behind Santorum maybe) and then the rest of the field.

[Mr. Morden]

I think Rubio and Paul fight for first, with Cruz taking a surprising third or fourth (behind Santorum maybe) and then the rest of the field.

Ryan should do well, though I suppose how people do in the speeches could be a factor.

Remember, these are largely movement conservatives who attend this thing.  I don't think Santorum will do that well with them.  Santorum has more appeal to the Evangelical identity politics types.  The only reason he did so well last year was because he was the de facto "not Romney" candidate.

[fezzyfestoon]

Ouch...that's quite a lacking slate of speakers. If I were them, I'd move on immediately upon receiving the results of the surely disappointing poll.

[Likely Voter]

can people vote for someone who isnt there? I think Christie might get some votes.

[You kip if you want to...]

How many for Sarah Palin do we think?

[Mr. Morden]

can people vote for someone who isnt there? I think Christie might get some votes.

We don't know what who will be included on the ballot yet.  They'll probably release the ballot in a few days.  But in past years, the organizers haven't been bound by who attends the meeting in determining who gets included on the ballot.  They usually just pick people who've been speculated on in the media as potential candidates, so there's a good chance that the ballot will include Christie.

And of course, there are people speaking at the conference who *won't* be on the ballot.  They're not going to put Mitch McConnell on the straw poll ballot, since everyone knows he's not running for president.

[Likely Voter]

I would imagine they would be torn on putting Christie on the ballot. It would be embarrassing if the guy who "didn't have a conservative year" and "wasn't an all-star" won or even did well.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

How many for Sarah Palin do we think?

She got 3 last time around...

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

CPAC has kicked out Bob McDonnell for not being right-wing enough. Let that sink in.

[CountryClassSF]

CPAC has kicked out Bob McDonnell for not being right-wing enough. Let that sink in.

He raised taxes after he promised not to in order to get elected. It's a principles thing.

[Maxwell]

My guess

1. Marco Rubio
2. Rand Paul
3. Paul Ryan
4. Ted Cruz

I think Ryan will do much worse than third. Conservatives are kind of upset at him for some reason, but I'm not sure what it is.

[King]

Rand Paul is going to win this straw poll now.

But soon all the copycats will come and every GOP hopeful will be itching to do a 12 hour speaking filibuster and the novelty will fade.

[Kleine Scheiße]

We're still a few years off from 2016. This is probably an early indicator of the results, but I wouldn't say anything yet. Too early to call.

Christie, though, isn't exactly the most conservative politician out there, and his non-invitee status could open up a potential "wow" slot for Tim Scott, Wayne Allyn Root, Mike Lee, or Rand Paul.

Curious to see how Ben Carson will handle himself.

[King]

Ben Carson speaks well when there's nobody to challenge him so he'll do well and be a rising star in the party and then he'll step out of that bubble and get shredded

[5280]

So Newt "I Support Gay Marriage" Gingrich is allowed to show up? Newt "I think climate change is real and i did a PSA with Nancy Pelosi about it" Gingrich? Jesus, c'mon on conservatives, be consistent.

If Gingrich can show up, why can't SE Cupp or the GOProud and Log Cabin Republican attend?  Sounds hypocritical to me.

[All Along The Watchtower]

We're still a few years off from 2016. This is probably an early indicator of the results, but I wouldn't say anything yet. Too early to call.

Christie, though, isn't exactly the most conservative politician out there, and his non-invitee status could open up a potential "wow" slot for Tim Scott, Wayne Allyn Root, Mike Lee, or Rand Paul.

Curious to see how Ben Carson will handle himself.

An...uh..interesting signature you have there.

[Kleine Scheiße]

We're still a few years off from 2016. This is probably an early indicator of the results, but I wouldn't say anything yet. Too early to call.

Christie, though, isn't exactly the most conservative politician out there, and his non-invitee status could open up a potential "wow" slot for Tim Scott, Wayne Allyn Root, Mike Lee, or Rand Paul.

Curious to see how Ben Carson will handle himself.

An...uh..interesting signature you have there.

Of course. If I can't put any silly images in for a while, why not have some fun with it for the time being?

[Mr. Morden]

GOProud is still not invited to CPAC.  However, two GOProud board members will be attending, and participating in a panel discussion:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/03/07/finally_the_gays_have_come_back_to_cpac.html

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[Likely Voter]

GOProud is still not invited to CPAC.  However, two GOProud board members will be attending, and participating in a panel discussion

...but they will be required to wear pink triangles?