The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a story on Hickenlooper, and how some of his aides seem to be hinting that we shouldn't take his denials of interest in the presidency completely seriously:

http://kdvr.com/2013/01/17/hickenlooper-presidential-buzz-building-slowly/

And here's a story on the taboo against single politicians seeking the presidency, with particular focus on Hickenlooper's recent separation from his wife:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/20/opinion/sunday/love-marriage-and-voters.html?_r=0

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[Mr. Morden]

More signs of interest from Biden, starting with a Freudian slip:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/20/us-usa-inauguration-iowa-idUSBRE90J03R20130120

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And then:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323485704578254211027776062.html

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Also attending that Inaugural ball held by Iowa Democrats?  Martin O'Malley.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden asked again about running in 2016:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/01/21/biden-politics-inauguration-2016/1853155/

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[Mr. Morden]

Schweitzer on why he's unlikely to join the Cabinet of someone else's administration:

http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Article.aspx?cdid=A-16755419-12584

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[Mr. Morden]

Big Biden 2016 story on Politico:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/no-joke-joe-biden-makes-2016-moves-86600.html?hp=t2_3

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[Mr. Morden]

prez16 flagged this article on Columba Bush from way back in 1989, when Jeb was just the son of a president, not yet holding office himself:

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-02-13/features/8903050279_1_jeb-columba-columba-bush-bush-campaign

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[Mr. Morden]

Klobuchar profile.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/meet-amy-klobuchar.html

They mention this tidbit about Klobuchar attending Iowa Dems' inauguration party, which I missed:

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2013/01/18/2016-watch-minnesota-sen-amy-klobuchar-to-attend-iowa-inauguration-party/article?nclick_check=1

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[Mr. Morden]

Jindal gives a speech before the RNC Winter Meeting in Charlotte:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/jindal-gop-a-populist-party-86699.html?hp=l2

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[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Jeb Bush's book tour (he has a new book on immigration) won't be making any stops in Iowa or NH:

http://www.prez16.com/2013/01/jebs-book-tour-wont-go-through-iowa-new.html

Hello, first time poster.

Seems to be a lot of Cuomo supporters on here. Sure, he has a great resume, but he's one of the poorest speakers I've heard out of all the names being out there. I doubt Democrats will be be going from Obama, a great orator, to Cuomo, nails on a chalkboard.

Really?  He may be no Obama, but I actually think Cuomo is one of the better orators among the Democratic 2016ers.  Better than, say, Schweitzer, who just made me feel like the stage was too big for him when I watched his 2012 DNC speech.  Cuomo at least projects authority, and it's easier for me to imagine him as prez than most of the others.

Also, welcome to the forum!

[Mr. Morden]

Santorum's top Super PAC donor, Foster Friess, will support him again in 2016 if/when Santorum decides to run again:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/279405-top-donor-friess-would-support-santorum-2016-run

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary Clinton

There are some potential 2016 candidates for whom the presidential buzz is entirely self-created.  No one would be talking about Martin O'Malley as a potential 2016er, for example, if he wasn't running around the country trying to draw attention to himself.  It's not just O'Malley though.  Most of the other 2016ers have done at least *something* to hint at an interest in running.

There are, however, a few for whom the buzz is entirely external.  People speculate about the potential candidate in question even though they've given no meaningful signals that they're interested in running.  This is true of Elizabeth Warren, for instance.  But it's also largely true of Hillary Clinton.

Judging by the normal metrics, she's not running.  But because her polling is so dominant and so many people want her to run, the speculation continues at a fevered pace.  This seems to infect all of the coverage of her potential candidacy, and makes it difficult to interpret many of the signals.

This story, about an event honoring Clinton, is one of the more extreme cases:

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/12/hillary-is-running-a-dispatch-from-the-saban-forum.html

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But that's the thing.  The logic seems to go like this: "There's demand for her to run.  Everyone wants her to run.  Therefore, she's running."  But that kind of ignores the fact that she'll have to affirmatively decide to run herself.

She has stated on numerous occasions for the public record that she's not running.  It would take up too much space to go through every single denial, but I'll list a few, starting from October 2009….

October 2009:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=103546.15

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http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/62999-clinton-no-interest-in-running-for-president-again

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November 2010:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021921-503544.html

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May 2012:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/07/hillary-clinton-female-president_n_1493289.html

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October 2012:

http://www.marieclaire.com/world-reports/inspirational-women/hillary-clinton-farewell-4

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http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2012/10/clinton-definitely-leaving-politics-or-may-stay.html

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November 2012:

http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/hillary-2016-president-exercise/2012/11/12/id/463780/

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December 2012:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/09/us/politics/hillary-clintons-countless-choices-could-hinge-on-2016-election.html?ref=hillaryrodhamclinton&pagewanted=all

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http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/12/12/bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

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However, that's not the end of the story.  Since last month, there have been a few more signals suggesting that she hasn't truly ruled out a run.

December 2012:

http://politicker.com/2012/12/hillary-clintons-under-the-radar-letter-writing-campaign/

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http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Hillary-Clinton-sends-early-signal-about-2016-bid-on-Irish-visit-181736491.html

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January 2013:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167549.0

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But here is the biggest story, coming just last week:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/16/hillary-clinton-2016-women-look-ahead-to-history-in-the-making.html

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This is the thing though.  Because the MSM seems to take it for granted that HRC's many denials of interest were less than sincere, the sentence quoted above is treated as a throwaway line.  It should be a pretty BFD though.  Clinton has ruled out running in 2016 many times over.  So when "friends close to Clinton" say that her "plan has been to take a break after leaving her post as secretary of state before laying the groundwork for a second run for the presidency" where are those friends getting that from?  Are they just projecting onto her their own wishes, or have they been informed directly, by her, that that's what she intends to do.  Again, if it's the latter, it's a BFD.

But the media seems to have already made up its mind that all of her denials have been insincere, so they seem to be uninterested in investigating actual evidence that would shed light on whether they were sincere or not.  Ugh.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary and Obama just totally dodged the question in their joint interview. She's definitely sounding like she's in.

Here's what she said:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57565734/obama-and-clinton-the-60-minutes-interview/?pageNum=4

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[Mr. Morden]

I don't think she's decided definitively, but just two months or so ago, I would have put the odds of her running at about 1 in 3, but there are now enough signals that she's open to it, that I'd have to put it above 50/50.

Which is kind of unfortunate, on a pure political spectator point of view.  I was hoping we'd have interesting primaries for both parties in 2016.  But if Clinton runs, the Democratic primary is much more likely to be very boring.

[Mr. Morden]

Politico does their own compilation of HRC answers over the years when asked if she'll run in 2016, using many of the same quotes I compiled and also noting how her answers have evolved from outright denial to dodging the question:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/hillary-clintons-quotes-on-2016-86804.html?hp=l6

[Mr. Morden]

Ray LaHood is indeed resigning as Sec. of Transportation:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/post/transportation-secretary-ray-lahood-is-leaving-the-administration/2013/01/29/30ca3514-6a22-11e2-95b3-272d604a10a3_blog.html

so we'll see if Villaraigosa gets his purported wish to become Sec. of Transportation, and use that as a launching pad for national office.

Also, HRC is again asked about 2016, and she's pretty definitively shifted from her previous outright denial to the non-denial denial:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/clinton-still-deflecting-2016-questions-86901.html?hp=r4

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[Mr. Morden]

Cruz is asked about the media speculation that he might run for president.  He says "I try not to pay attention to it."

http://blogs.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/archive/2013/01/25/brody-file-exclusive-ted-cruz-not-paying-attention-to-2016.aspx

That's not exactly a denial of interest.

[Mr. Morden]

I know its too early for polls but:

Marco Rubio Leads Iowa Presidential Poll

There's already a thread on this on the polling board:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=168732.0

[Mr. Morden]

Marco Rubio

Some potential candidates, like Brian Schweitzer, did a lot of 2016 teasing before last November's election, but haven't made a whole lot of noise since then.  Rubio, on the other hand, has done the bulk of his 2016 teasing just in the last few months.  Granted, it did start six months before the election, when Rubio visited both Iowa and South Carolina, back in May 2012:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153398.0

Now, he was "running for VP" at the time, and Iowa is a swing state.  SC isn't though, but is instead an early primary state, so his trip there might be seen more as an indicator of presidential ambition.  Then in July, still campaigning for VP, Rubio does solo campaign events for Romney in early caucus states NV and IA:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/veep-beat-vp-contender-tour-kicks-off/

Rubio of course wasn't picked as Romney's running mate, so he was then free to pursue his own presidential ambitions without worrying about the vice presidency.  He met with SC delegates at the RNC:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/york-christie-rubio-are-getting-ready-for-next-time/article/2506566#.UEMMP46e1L4

Rubio made the first post-election early primary state visit of any of the likely candidates from either party, when he went to a "birthday fundraiser" for Iowa Gov. Branstad immediately after the election:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/08/rubio-to-headline-fundraiser-for-iowa-governor/

Rubio has also reportedly been asked to be invited to Lincoln Day dinners in NH:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3524899#msg3524899

Then in December 2012, Politico ran a story on Rubio's future:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3542821#msg3542821

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As mentioned above, Rubio spoke at December's Jack Kemp Foundation dinner along with Ryan, with both joking about 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3543646#msg3543646

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In January, Rubio voted against the fiscal cliff deal, possibly an indication of national ambition:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3574327#msg3574327

He'll also speak at CPAC in March:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3593325#msg3593325

Rubio is of course also raising his national profile by pushing immigration reform, and making the case with the conservative base to support him on it:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=168648.0

Is there anything that might prevent him from running?  Well, it is unfortunate for him that his Senate seat is up again in 2016.  On the surface, this might make it seem like he has to choose between running for president and running for reelection for Senate.  However, the filing deadline for his Senate seat isn't until June 2016, so Rubio could run for prez, and at least wait until the nomination is decided before deciding whether to run for reelection for Senate.

Perhaps a more serious problem is the possibility that his path might be blocked by his political mentor

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3529619#msg3529619

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IMHO though, Bush is only likely to run if he sees a clear path to victory.  And I doubt he'd run and thus block Rubio, if Rubio continues to lead the GOP primary polls.

Finally, arguing in favor of a 2016 presidential campaign is that it might be the last presidential election year in which he still has his hair:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166350.0

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, New York Magazine compiles the list of every single time Hillary Clinton has been asked about running for president again, going back to October 2008.  Judge for yourself how you think she stacks up on "Shermanesque" scale:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/02/hillary-clinton-2016-shermanesque-denials.html

[Mr. Morden]

Villaraigosa now claims that he's not interested in becoming Sec. of Transportation if it means leaving his job as mayor of Los Angeles early.  Villaraigosa's term ends on June 30 of this year, and he's term limited out of running again:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/antonio-villaraigosa-rules-out-ray-lahoods-job-87091.html?hp=l3

I don't know if we should take this totally seriously though.  This might just be a way of doing expectations setting if Obama picks someone else.

Btw, I missed a big clue on Villaraigosa's presidential ambitions when I did the blurb on him many weeks back.  In October, he did an interview with Radio Iowa, and declined to rule out running in 2016:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/villaraigosas-nonanswer-on-139144.html#.UITqnKlUX5c.twitter

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[Mr. Morden]

Jindal says:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/280793-jindal-2016-presidential-aspirants-need-head-examined

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Question for Jindal: Is visiting Iowa for political events about ten times in the last five years enough of a show of presidential ambition to qualify for head examination?

[Mr. Morden]

Big story in Politico today about Paul Ryan's purported lack of presidential ambition:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/behind-the-curtain-paul-ryans-new-path-to-power-87170.html?hp=t1_3

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The story goes on to speculate that even if he's not much interested in running for president, it's in Ryan's political interest to keep 2016 political speculation alive, so as to give himself more of a media platform.

[Mr. Morden]

A few quick hits:

Santorum

Santorum is visiting the early-ish primary state of Michigan later this month:

http://www.sourcenewspapers.com/articles/2013/01/31/news/doc510ad13c7cfd0040374033.txt

Christie

Christie says the long primary campaign in 2012 was the "stupidest thing the Republican Party ever did”, as it damaged eventual nominee Mitt Romney.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/christie-on-lengthening-nomination-process-stupidest-thing-republican

A sign that if he runs in 2016, he won't be getting in the race terribly early in 2015?

Jindal; Klobuchar

Another sign that Jindal and Klobuchar have national ambitions?  They'll both be speaking at the annual Gridiron Club and Foundation dinner on March 9.

link

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The dinner has often featured political figures looking to build national profiles, often before they began presidential campaigns:

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Mitch Daniels also spoke at the dinner back in 2011, when he was still flirting with the idea of running for president.

[Mr. Morden]

"I don't know yet, but we're thinking about it"

--Rand Paul's answer on whether he'll run for president, in the final 10 seconds of this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUyeJVXT9AQ&feature=player_embedded

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio is already test driving the explanation he's going to give when he ultimately announces that he'll run for president, and leave the Senate after one term:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rebeccaberg/how-marco-rubio-is-thinking-about-2016

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Got that?  He'll only have been in the Senate for one term, but he's spinning the decision to leave the Senate after that one term to run for higher office as an opportunity to "give someone else a shot" at service in the Senate.