The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[CountryClassSF]

I do think Jindal is setting himself up for a possible run.  It's interesting....

Jindal seems to be positioning himself as the chief criticizer of everything Republican, though he has heavy competition from Christie out in New Jersey.

What do you all think they are doing with this? I wonder if there's a segment of the Republican Party that this appeals to...certainly not to me.

[Mr. Morden]

Ray LaHood is indeed resigning as Sec. of Transportation:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/post/transportation-secretary-ray-lahood-is-leaving-the-administration/2013/01/29/30ca3514-6a22-11e2-95b3-272d604a10a3_blog.html

so we'll see if Villaraigosa gets his purported wish to become Sec. of Transportation, and use that as a launching pad for national office.

Also, HRC is again asked about 2016, and she's pretty definitively shifted from her previous outright denial to the non-denial denial:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/clinton-still-deflecting-2016-questions-86901.html?hp=r4

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[Eraserhead]

Yeah, so she's 100% running. I think because of the health scare she has had to switch from the Sherman-esque statement to the whole "I have no plans to/who really knows what the future holds?" baloney much quicker (and more jarringly) than she had planned to.

I guess the HBIC was worried that the sharks (Cuomo, Warren, etc.) smelled blood in the water. Btw, the woman is a total phony and a serial liar but I digress...

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz is asked about the media speculation that he might run for president.  He says "I try not to pay attention to it."

http://blogs.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/archive/2013/01/25/brody-file-exclusive-ted-cruz-not-paying-attention-to-2016.aspx

That's not exactly a denial of interest.

[seanNJ9]

Well the early debates do need a few whack jobs. I.E, Michelle Bachman. Cruz is positioning himself for that spot.

[mattyman]

Well the early debates do need a few whack jobs. I.E, Michelle Bachman. Cruz is positioning himself for that spot.

Bachmann was in a class of her own. Not sure if I'd put Cruz in that category at all.

[Eraserhead]

If Rubio runs, there's no point in Cruz running.

[Beet]

I do think Jindal is setting himself up for a possible run.  It's interesting....

Jindal seems to be positioning himself as the chief criticizer of everything Republican, though he has heavy competition from Christie out in New Jersey.

What do you all think they are doing with this? I wonder if there's a segment of the Republican Party that this appeals to...certainly not to me.

I think they're trying to convince some people who were dejected by the last presidential election that they have the answer to pull the party up. I think Christie is definitely going way off the reservation, though.

[seanNJ9]

Well the early debates do need a few whack jobs. I.E, Michelle Bachman. Cruz is positioning himself for that spot.

Bachmann was in a class of her own. Not sure if I'd put Cruz in that category at all.

he's been in office for 3 seconds and he's quickly becoming the joke of the senate.

[mattyman]

I know its too early for polls but:

Marco Rubio Leads Iowa Presidential Poll
Harper Polling Iowa Presidential survey via conservativeintel

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Surely Santorum would struggle to get above mid teens with a field like this?

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[Mr. Morden]

I know its too early for polls but:

Marco Rubio Leads Iowa Presidential Poll

There's already a thread on this on the polling board:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=168732.0

[Mr. Morden]

Marco Rubio

Some potential candidates, like Brian Schweitzer, did a lot of 2016 teasing before last November's election, but haven't made a whole lot of noise since then.  Rubio, on the other hand, has done the bulk of his 2016 teasing just in the last few months.  Granted, it did start six months before the election, when Rubio visited both Iowa and South Carolina, back in May 2012:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153398.0

Now, he was "running for VP" at the time, and Iowa is a swing state.  SC isn't though, but is instead an early primary state, so his trip there might be seen more as an indicator of presidential ambition.  Then in July, still campaigning for VP, Rubio does solo campaign events for Romney in early caucus states NV and IA:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/07/veep-beat-vp-contender-tour-kicks-off/

Rubio of course wasn't picked as Romney's running mate, so he was then free to pursue his own presidential ambitions without worrying about the vice presidency.  He met with SC delegates at the RNC:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/york-christie-rubio-are-getting-ready-for-next-time/article/2506566#.UEMMP46e1L4

Rubio made the first post-election early primary state visit of any of the likely candidates from either party, when he went to a "birthday fundraiser" for Iowa Gov. Branstad immediately after the election:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/08/rubio-to-headline-fundraiser-for-iowa-governor/

Rubio has also reportedly been asked to be invited to Lincoln Day dinners in NH:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3524899#msg3524899

Then in December 2012, Politico ran a story on Rubio's future:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3542821#msg3542821

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As mentioned above, Rubio spoke at December's Jack Kemp Foundation dinner along with Ryan, with both joking about 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3543646#msg3543646

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In January, Rubio voted against the fiscal cliff deal, possibly an indication of national ambition:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3574327#msg3574327

He'll also speak at CPAC in March:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3593325#msg3593325

Rubio is of course also raising his national profile by pushing immigration reform, and making the case with the conservative base to support him on it:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=168648.0

Is there anything that might prevent him from running?  Well, it is unfortunate for him that his Senate seat is up again in 2016.  On the surface, this might make it seem like he has to choose between running for president and running for reelection for Senate.  However, the filing deadline for his Senate seat isn't until June 2016, so Rubio could run for prez, and at least wait until the nomination is decided before deciding whether to run for reelection for Senate.

Perhaps a more serious problem is the possibility that his path might be blocked by his political mentor

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3529619#msg3529619

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IMHO though, Bush is only likely to run if he sees a clear path to victory.  And I doubt he'd run and thus block Rubio, if Rubio continues to lead the GOP primary polls.

Finally, arguing in favor of a 2016 presidential campaign is that it might be the last presidential election year in which he still has his hair:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=166350.0

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, New York Magazine compiles the list of every single time Hillary Clinton has been asked about running for president again, going back to October 2008.  Judge for yourself how you think she stacks up on "Shermanesque" scale:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/02/hillary-clinton-2016-shermanesque-denials.html

[Mr. Morden]

Villaraigosa now claims that he's not interested in becoming Sec. of Transportation if it means leaving his job as mayor of Los Angeles early.  Villaraigosa's term ends on June 30 of this year, and he's term limited out of running again:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/antonio-villaraigosa-rules-out-ray-lahoods-job-87091.html?hp=l3

I don't know if we should take this totally seriously though.  This might just be a way of doing expectations setting if Obama picks someone else.

Btw, I missed a big clue on Villaraigosa's presidential ambitions when I did the blurb on him many weeks back.  In October, he did an interview with Radio Iowa, and declined to rule out running in 2016:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/villaraigosas-nonanswer-on-139144.html#.UITqnKlUX5c.twitter

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[Mr. Morden]

Jindal says:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/280793-jindal-2016-presidential-aspirants-need-head-examined

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Question for Jindal: Is visiting Iowa for political events about ten times in the last five years enough of a show of presidential ambition to qualify for head examination?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Someone needs to disavow, ASAP, the remarks from Perry and Santorum about the Boy Scouts' new willingness to be more inclusive. What a couple of smurfin' idiots. Marriage is a time-honoured tradition between a man and a woman—fine. But that doesn't mean gays should be barred from every single damn opportunity. They're people, for Christ's sake. This is actually infuriating. One, it just makes no sense to be against gays joining up. Two, we're trying to win an election, and more and more voters are seeing us as a bunch of extremists. How in the hell does taking a public stance like theirs help? I really couldn't care less if that's what they actually believe, but by God, keep it to yourself. Don't jump on it like it's some sort of opportunity. Smurf.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Someone needs to disavow, ASAP, the remarks from Perry and Santorum about the Boy Scouts' new willingness to be more inclusive. What a couple of smurfin' idiots. Marriage is a time-honoured tradition between a man and a woman—fine. But that doesn't mean gays should be barred from every single damn opportunity. They're people, for Christ's sake. This is actually infuriating. One, it just makes no sense to be against gays joining up. Two, we're trying to win an election, and more and more voters are seeing us as a bunch of extremists. How in the hell does taking a public stance like theirs help? I really couldn't care less if that's what they actually believe, but by God, keep it to yourself. Don't jump on it like it's some sort of opportunity. Smurf.

You're a smart guy. The GOP needs a dose of this common sense right now. Everyone knows Perry and Santorum are jokes, but the Democratic Party right now is very good at painting with a broad brush.

[RogueBeaver]

What Hagrid and BBV said.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Rove launches anti-Tea Party Super PAC. Getcha popcorn ready, folks.

http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/02/04/rove-tea-party-in-gop-civil-war/

[RogueBeaver]

That's for Senate elections, wrong subforum.

[bedstuy]

Speculation about J-Nap running in 2016 from the Washington Post.  I'm surprised she's not mentioned more as a 2016 candidate. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2013/02/04/janet-napolitano-a-woman-to-watch-for-2016/

[RogueBeaver]

For Hagrid: P16 profiles Martinez.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/02/meet-susana-martinez.html

[HagridOfTheDeep]

For Hagrid: P16 profiles Martinez.

http://www.prez16.com/2013/02/meet-susana-martinez.html

Thanks. Damn, I hope she runs.

[Mr. Morden]

Big story in Politico today about Paul Ryan's purported lack of presidential ambition:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/02/behind-the-curtain-paul-ryans-new-path-to-power-87170.html?hp=t1_3

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The story goes on to speculate that even if he's not much interested in running for president, it's in Ryan's political interest to keep 2016 political speculation alive, so as to give himself more of a media platform.

[Mr. Morden]

A few quick hits:

Santorum

Santorum is visiting the early-ish primary state of Michigan later this month:

http://www.sourcenewspapers.com/articles/2013/01/31/news/doc510ad13c7cfd0040374033.txt

Christie

Christie says the long primary campaign in 2012 was the "stupidest thing the Republican Party ever did”, as it damaged eventual nominee Mitt Romney.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/christie-on-lengthening-nomination-process-stupidest-thing-republican

A sign that if he runs in 2016, he won't be getting in the race terribly early in 2015?

Jindal; Klobuchar

Another sign that Jindal and Klobuchar have national ambitions?  They'll both be speaking at the annual Gridiron Club and Foundation dinner on March 9.

link

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The dinner has often featured political figures looking to build national profiles, often before they began presidential campaigns:

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Mitch Daniels also spoke at the dinner back in 2011, when he was still flirting with the idea of running for president.