Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Cassius]

Entire Lughansk region is now under Russian control. Ukrainians retreated at the end from Lysychansk and surroundings without much of a fight. Their response is to strike Belgorod with Tochkas. They killed 3 people who fled from Kharkiv.

ftfy

pls don't use the Russian names for Ukrainian towns and cities on this forum.

I'll use what I want.

You can forbid maybe someone somewhere from using something but you can't change history that quickly. Literally every single resident of Luhansk oblast is a Russian speaker.

Pls don't be so detached from reality.

It doesn't matter what the locals call it, Ukrainian is the national language of Ukraine and using the Russian form is an unnecessary provocation on a pro-Ukrainian forum. This not a place for Russia lovers and Chetniks so kindly delete your account and go somewhere else.

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[Cassius]

Entire Lughansk region is now under Russian control. Ukrainians retreated at the end from Lysychansk and surroundings without much of a fight. Their response is to strike Belgorod with Tochkas. They killed 3 people who fled from Kharkiv.

ftfy

pls don't use the Russian names for Ukrainian towns and cities on this forum.

I'll use what I want.

You can forbid maybe someone somewhere from using something but you can't change history that quickly. Literally every single resident of Luhansk oblast is a Russian speaker.

Pls don't be so detached from reality.

It doesn't matter what the locals call it, Ukrainian is the national language of Ukraine and using the Russian form is an unnecessary provocation on a pro-Ukrainian forum. This not a place for Russia lovers and Chetniks so kindly delete your account and go somewhere else.

Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk  Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk Lug@nsk

How very mature and considerate of you

Oh, and classically.......paleoconservative.

I'm sorry, but Луганск just rolls off the tongue better than Луганськ and I'm not going to apologise for it.

[Cassius]

Germany has the first trade deficit since 1991 due to a surge in energy import prices and declines in exports due to weaker manufacturing competitiveness due to higher energy input costs.  Totally expected economic blowback on Russia for its participation in Russian sanctions.

So it took a war in Ukraine to finally correct for the massive trade imbalances in Europe… too bad the countries that already had large trade deficits (ie most of them) will get it in the neck even worse.

[Cassius]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

[Cassius]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

Sanctions against Russia should absolutely be rolled back, on a case-by-case basis, if it is in the national interest of the United States, regardless of the context in which they were originally put in place.

Removing all sanctions against Russia is in the interests of every country bar Ukraine (and perhaps Georgia and the Baltic statelets) - won’t happen though until we see a) how bad the  economic self-harm being inflicted upon Western countries gets (for which we’ll probably have to wait until later this year) and b) whether Ukrainian hopes of further territorial gains from the Russian forces stall (or even go into reverse, although that might be counterproductive, as renewed Russian gains will strengthen the anti-Russia lobby).

[Cassius]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%      +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -9.1%        +2.6%       +1.9%      +3.4%      +4.0%          +1.6%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +15.2%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%

The economic growth projections for the USA fell a lot this month.  I think the numbers for the EU and UK are lagging and I can expect them to fall in the August surveys.  The collective West inflation projections continue to rise.  The Japanese rise in CPI is purely imported while domestic demand continues to stagnate. The PRC economic dropoff is less about the war than the COVID-19 lockdowns.  The economic momentum in Russia continues to be moving upward as the expected level of GDP fall continues to decrease while the expected CPI also falls.

The total net economic impact of the war on Russia seems to be around 11%-12% of GDP while the economic impact of the war on the collective West seems to be around 1.4% of GDP.  But in PPP terms the collective West has a GDP of around 13-14 times bigger than Russia.  So from this, we can say the total economic damage on the collective West has been around 1.5 times of Russia.  Of course, the economic damage to Russia is concentrated in an economy with a much smaller GDP than the collective West making it harder to bear.  Still, the collective West has to burn 1.5 units of economic output to get 1 unit of economic damage to Russia and these numbers might shift more making the ratio even more unfavorable to the collective West.

Well, then it's a good thing our greater GDP allows us to weather the damange relatively painlessly while Russia will be crippled for decades to come. The West's economic dominance affords it considerable geopolitical power if it's actually willing to make full use of it, and I guess now is the critical test to see if we are.

Given that no country outside of “the West” will ever trust it or more importantly, its institutions, again after this year, it may well be the last time.

This is the watershed moment, guys! The handling of the financial and COVID-19 crises, invasions like that of Iraq and the rise of joke premiers did not destroy Western countries' relationships with the rest of the world, but sanctions on Russia will.

Never mind that harsher sanctions regimes have been imposed for much less without denting these relationships. Countries will accept being sanctioned for pursuing nuclear energy like Iran, but they won't accept the possibility of being sanctioned if they choose to invade their neighbours.

/s

I should mention the same goes for Ukraine, too. We've sold out other countries and peoples before, so selling them short wouldn't come close to completely isolating Western countries from the rest of the world.

Probably should’ve phrased the comment in a more disciplined manner. Obviously, “the West” will continue doing business with “the rest” (just as we have continued to do business with Russia, because a full unwinding of our economic relations is impossible). Nonetheless, the actions of Western governments will damage their ability to exert influence over the rest of the world in the long run, continuing the process that, yes, involved the Iraq debacle, the financial crisis etc. Take an example - the Canadian government passed a bill last month enabling the expropriation of the assets of Russians in Canada, based on the dubious assumption that these all of these individuals are in some way responsible for the invasion of Ukraine. If you’re a Chinese investor, or a Saudi investor, or an Indian investor, and you’ve put money away in a Western bank or in Western real estate under the assumption that this money would be safe as long as you complied with that country’s laws (rule of law!!!) this is going to give you significant pause for thought, as you’ll be thinking “gee, if my government does something that upsets the West am I going to lose my money”? Too soon to say how this will unfold, but I think a slowdown in investment by “the Rest” in “the West” is a likely outcome of the unhinged Western response to the war in Ukraine. Why place your faith in Western rule of law if it can be junked at the drop of a hat?

The same of course goes for other flows of trade and investment; de-dollarisation is also going to be accelerated by this. All this will, in time, reduce the ability of Western governments to throw their weight around. Alternative institutions will be constructed, countries outside “the West” will seek means to insulate themselves from Western meddling, as the Russians have already (incompletely) done. You know, the policy of massive sanctions has already failed; it has not forced Russia to end the war; it has not prevented a single death or war crime. We should have known this would happen, given that massive sanctions have not worked against any other country in recent history. All that remains is the spectacle of Western governments desperately scrabbling around for ‘things to do’ to ‘punish’ Russia, as they push their own economies into recession and hurt the well-being of their own citizens. Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

[Cassius]

Maybe Russia will ‘crack’ first (although a Russian crackup would not be a pretty sight and would cause enormous problems of its own) - personally, I don’t think that’s going to happen, so all of this sturm und drang will have been for nothing.

You think a Russian crackup is unlikely to occur faster than... the collapse of the whole Western-dominated global capitalist system that has existed in some form or other since the 1850s?

And these people call themselves "realists". Good grief.

The latter is... not what I meant (not least since Russia is integrated into the global capitalist system alongside every other damn polity in the world besides that of the Sentinelese spear chuckers) - what I meant was that when the consequences of the polices pursued by Western governments over the last months work themselves out over the next year or so then, the climbdown will occur, in terms of a gradual relaxation of sanctions and efforts to normalise relations. Obviously, the stakes are higher for Russia; a Western climbdown means embarrassment and sheepishness for Western governments and opinion formers; Russian failure in Ukraine means the potential collapse of the Putinist system (although, obviously, governments collapses through the usual means can't be ruled out in the West) and thus the possible collapse of the Russian Federation as it presently exists. This is, of course, the usually unstated and occasionally stated goal of the anti-Russia lobby in the West; nonetheless, it is a foolish goal, given that whatever replaces Putin in "Russian Russia", at the very least, is unlikely to be more sympathetic to the interests of Western opinion formers  (regardless of what the emigres say, but then emigres are always the most irrelevant people to take advice from, whether they be the French royalists in the 1790s, the White Russians in the 1920s, or liberal Russian expats like Andrei Kozyrev in 2022) and much more likely to generate further instability in the region.

Really, as I've said before, this whole area is one we should have steered well clear of. Unfortunately, the 'cross-in-a-box-every-five-years' fetishism of the Western opinion forming establishment got the better of common sense.

[Cassius]

Are the moderators just going to leave up a post where a poster fantasises about choking and f****** a woman then?

It’s war. War means there is a period of time when two classes of people whose needs and survival have been determined to be exclusively relevant. During that time, one group lies outside the moral community of that  group inasmuch beyond whatever obligations outside classes universally impose upon them. In layman’s terms,     your feelings.

What does this (vaguely Schmittian) screed have to do with the lurid fantasies of an American keyboard warrior then? Is he risking life and limb on the frontline against the Ruskies? What do these contributions add to the thread?

[Cassius]

Are the moderators just going to leave up a post where a poster fantasises about choking and f****** a woman then?

It’s war. War means there is a period of time when two classes of people whose needs and survival have been determined to be exclusively relevant. During that time, one group lies outside the moral community of that  group inasmuch beyond whatever obligations outside classes universally impose upon them. In layman’s terms,     your feelings.

What does this (vaguely Schmittian) screed have to do with the lurid fantasies of an American keyboard warrior then? Is he risking life and limb on the frontline against the Ruskies? What do these contributions add to the thread?

I guess he isn’t allowed to be angry, then. There is a time and place for everything.

No he’s not. He’s a grown man (a fair bit above the average age on this forum as far as I can tell), who lives thousands of miles away from the conflict zone, a conflict zone that, I assume, he has never been to. If you want a thread of threnodies and torture porn then do it somewhere else.

[Cassius]

Are the moderators just going to leave up a post where a poster fantasises about choking and f****** a woman then?

It’s war. War means there is a period of time when two classes of people whose needs and survival have been determined to be exclusively relevant. During that time, one group lies outside the moral community of that  group inasmuch beyond whatever obligations outside classes universally impose upon them. In layman’s terms,     your feelings.

What does this (vaguely Schmittian) screed have to do with the lurid fantasies of an American keyboard warrior then? Is he risking life and limb on the frontline against the Ruskies? What do these contributions add to the thread?

I guess he isn’t allowed to be angry, then. There is a time and place for everything.

No he’s not. He’s a grown man (a fair bit above the average age on this forum as far as I can tell), who lives thousands of miles away from the conflict zone, a conflict zone that, I assume, he has never been to. If you want a thread of threnodies and torture porn then do it somewhere else.

Clutch them pearls harder! I'm so sorry that my outrage over the war crimes in genocide of Russians apparently offends you more then said war crimes themselves. I've contributed money to the Ukrainian cause which is, just like you, about as much support as I can do other than online gestures of support and utter wishing of ill will upon russians. I readily admit it's not much in a big scheme, but it's more than you're doing.

So yes, I hope the Russian collaborator dies of her assassination attempt wounds. I admit perhaps it was a bit sadistic to wish it'd be a painful death. I just want her dead like every other Russian and active collaborator. Let's get real, Ukrainian resistance sought her death for a reason.

Sounds a bit… genocidal?

[Cassius]

Are the moderators just going to leave up a post where a poster fantasises about choking and f****** a woman then?

It’s war. War means there is a period of time when two classes of people whose needs and survival have been determined to be exclusively relevant. During that time, one group lies outside the moral community of that  group inasmuch beyond whatever obligations outside classes universally impose upon them. In layman’s terms,     your feelings.

What does this (vaguely Schmittian) screed have to do with the lurid fantasies of an American keyboard warrior then? Is he risking life and limb on the frontline against the Ruskies? What do these contributions add to the thread?

I guess he isn’t allowed to be angry, then. There is a time and place for everything.

No he’s not. He’s a grown man (a fair bit above the average age on this forum as far as I can tell), who lives thousands of miles away from the conflict zone, a conflict zone that, I assume, he has never been to. If you want a thread of threnodies and torture porn then do it somewhere else.

Clutch them pearls harder! I'm so sorry that my outrage over the war crimes in genocide of Russians apparently offends you more then said war crimes themselves. I've contributed money to the Ukrainian cause which is, just like you, about as much support as I can do other than online gestures of support and utter wishing of ill will upon russians. I readily admit it's not much in a big scheme, but it's more than you're doing.

So yes, I hope the Russian collaborator dies of her assassination attempt wounds. I admit perhaps it was a bit sadistic to wish it'd be a painful death. I just want her dead like every other Russian and active collaborator. Let's get real, Ukrainian resistance sought her death for a reason.

Sounds a bit… genocidal?

Sorry, my voice to text app apparently skipped over the word "soldier" after the word Russian.

Of course it did. Just like it skipped over ‘f*** her [in a non-sexual way] eh]?

[Cassius]

Imagine thinking the average Western European considers Hungarians to be fellow ‘Westerners’ when most Western Europeans are unaware of the fact that Hungarians aren’t subhuman Slavs.

[Cassius]

If Ukraine takes Melitopol, that means Russia has lost the war. Donetsk is a big city and is not worth the cost of contesting. One Putin loses his land bridge, and Crimea is subject to being contested, he will give up. That is my uneducated opinion. Another way to put it, is that if Russia cannot prevent Melitopol from falling, that means its military has been rendered largely toothless. We shall see.

Russia lost the war in the first hours of the war, when they rushed the tanks with no infantry or air support.

The Ukrainian army should march to Moscow and annex Russia, they will be no resistance since there is currently no functional or loyal russian society or army.

The people of Moscow will greet them as liberators just like the people of Kherson.

If they don't annex Russia now that it's defenceless, they simply invite a future war under less favourable conditions for Ukraine.

Unsure if you're:

1. a Z maxi who just wants to see Putin deploy nukes

2. trolling

or

3. very, very high

Of course, Ukraine annexing Russia would mean that Putin had achieved his objective. 7D chess.

[Cassius]

[Cassius]

This article discusses the prospects of Ukraine taking back Crimea. The prospects appear grim to me, particular the bit that the bulk of the population still there wants to be Russian. The plan would be to cut Crimea off and starve it out, but that would make for very bad press. And the fall of Crimea would mean the fall of Putin, and do there is that. The last couple of sentences are mine, and not in the article.

I found the sentence below interesting however. Is that why Ukraine so far is winning the war?

A source in military intelligence is confident that Ukraine’s structural advantages, principally its ability to stage highly mobile hit-and-run attacks and break up supply lines, will prevail. “We’ve demonstrated at every stage that our tactics and focus on logistics are correct. We will show it again,” the source says.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/27/a-ukrainian-attempt-to-retake-crimea-would-be-bloody-and-difficult

I've seen this claimed quite frequently, and it does seem to be the conventional wisdom, but is there any actual evidence to back it up? There might have been some truth to it back in 2014, but is there any evidence that it is still true today?

I mean, if Russia's strategy of winning hearts and minds in the southern and western oblasts of Ukraine by bombing them hasn't worked then I fail to see how a Ukrainian strategy of winning hearts and minds in the Crimea by starving them will be any more successful.

[Cassius]

We're going help Ukraine and make Russia pay for it folks.
https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1605984424717193216

“Those have been worked out” ie it’s the US government and the US government will take what it will.

[Cassius]

Interesting... why this sudden flurry of activity?

[Cassius]

I’m not sure, given the CIA’s lamentable track record at assassinating foreign leaders (possibly as many as 600 failed hits on Castro alone), why people have this faith in the CIA’s ability to magically assassinate Putin at will. Besides, the assassination of foreign leaders has effectively been illegal since Gerald Ford signed an executive order banning the practice in the 1970s (Biden could theoretically rescind but I doubt that would be a good look).

[Cassius]

Well yes, but Hitler only survived a well planned assassination attempt in 1944 through dumb luck.

True, but that was just one of a number of failed assassination plots (assassinating high ranking leaders is hard contrary to popular belief) and, as you say, was well planned (literally months of planning) and organised by relatively high ranking military officials (including, literally, the chief of German military intelligence) without Allied assistance or backing. I doubt a similar thing is going to happen in Russia and if it does I’ll simply repeat the usual caveat that expecting it to redound to the benefit of Ukraine and the West is wishful thinking.

[Cassius]

Infratest-dimap (for ARD-Deutschlandtrend) did a huge main battle tank poll in Germany.


Germany should deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine
Support 46%
Oppose 43%


Western states (old FRG) only
Support 50%
Oppose 38%

Eastern states (ex-GDR) only
Support 32%
Oppose 59%


CDU/CSU voters only
Support 66%
Oppose 29%

Green voters only
Support 61%
Oppose 21%

SPD voters only
Support 49%
Oppose 40%

FDP voters only
Support 48%
Oppose 48%

AfD voters only
Support 10%
Oppose 84%


Age bracket 18-34
Support 37%
Oppose 52%

Age bracket 35-49
Support 40%
Oppose 48%

Age bracket 50-64
Support 51%
Oppose 39%

Age bracket 65+
Support 52%
Oppose 36%


https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-3277.html

Interesting poll. Obviously I’m not an expert but I’d assume that the Greens would have a younger voting base and thus would be more opposed according to the age tabs. Ditto SPD but in reverse. Also surprised to see the relatively high level of opposition amongst FDP voters.

[Cassius]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

and if you are right it will only have taken them 6 months and 40,000 dead to do it and losing huge swaths of land elsewhere.  What a great victory for the Motherland!  How many more of these "victories" can the Russians pull off?  I hope a lot.

Ne ego si iterum eodem modo vicero, sine ullo milite Epirum revertar.

Doesn't really work in this case given that it was Pyrrhus who had fewer but better quality troops, hence why he couldn't afford to lose them. Putin's forces (generally) don't appear to be as good man-for-man as those of the Ukrainians but he has more at this point to call upon than they do.

[Cassius]

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/02/01/Israeli-PM-Netanyahu-says-considering-military-aid-to-Ukraine-mediation-

"Israeli PM Netanyahu says considering military aid to Ukraine, mediation"

Looks like Netanyahu might be open to sending Iron Dome to Ukraine.

Isn't a lot of the technology used in the Iron Dome produced by American companies, thus also acquiring US government approval presumably?

[Cassius]

So, assuming Bakhmut does get surrounded, is there not the likelihood that it ends up as another Mariupol (ie defenders fight on for a month or two)?

[Cassius]

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1632230153064685568

I suppose the deal would be to withdraw from the territories occupied post-February 24th in exchange for international recognition of Russian claims to Crimea and the Donbas.

[Cassius]

The truth is, if we allow Russia to win this war we set such a dangerous precedent and signal to literally every medium sized country they need to build nukes. It is long term more dangerous to humanity to allow Russia to win and trigger multiple nuclear weapon programs in previously compliant countries than to take the small risk increased engagement will “lead to WW3”. Something I think nobody wants to mention is that Russia is devoting a huge amount of their resources to just Ukraine, the west is basically lifting a single finger, I mean you can talk big sums of money all you want but those are still minuscule parts of the US budget. If Russia truly is willing to engage a war with the West over Ukraine, that is their own demise (and yes the world if a nuclear launch genuinely manages to not be put down by someone in chain of command)

But did that not already happen with the 2003 Iraq War? The main lesson of the Iraq War was that Saddam Hussein's main mistake was that he did NOT manage to get chemical and nuclear weapons.  So any lesson war can teach was already taught back in 2003.

Or the big example, Gaddafi’s voluntary abandonment of Libya’s nuclear programme in 2003, which earned praise from the Americans at the time but didn’t stop the NATO bombing campaign against him in 2011. In the case of this war, the fact that Russia’s nuclear deterrent has enabled Putin to largely obviate the risk of direct NATO military intervention already stands as a signal to states outside the American system that to have nuclear weapons is better than not to have them.