Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If Specter switches and becomes the Dem nominee, would it be possible for a legit left winger to run as an indie to satisfy the liberals who don't want to vote for Specter or Toomey? Does Pennsylvania law allow for that to happen? I can't see the liberals in PA being happy with a centrist Specter running as a Dem versus a right of center Toomey.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Wait. So Toomey is definitely running? It seems like its a forgone conclusion that he'll run, but I thought he was telling friends privately he was? That doesn't always pan out.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I heard on Foxnews last night that Specter has become wishy washy on whether he'd support card check or not.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but he comes out and opposes it, could it signal that he's going to remain in the GOP?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Why did Toomey do so well in Pittsburgh? I guess Specter's voters there aren't registered Republicans?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Here's my prediction for the Senate race for PA. Feel free to tear it down.

1. I think the card check vote will never get the 60 votes it needs to come to the floor. the Democrats said they would not call it to a vote unless they had the 60 votes. So Specter may dodge that one.

2. He will not switch parties. The more I read about this race and the more I learn about Arlen, I believe he will go into the primary as a Republican.

3. Luksik entering the race may fracture the conservative vote somewhat so it will not be uniformly behind Toomey.

4. Specter will have to go on a huge voter signup, switching a lot of those moderate Republicans who registered as Democrats for the 2008 primary back over. Otherwise, he's toast, and hopefully he realizes that (I've read his staff has acknowledged that).

5. I can't predict the result of the primary. I do think Phil may be short sighting PA's electorate between now and 2010. He is quick to remind us that the environment may change for the general, but it could also change for the primary too. I still think Toomey wins this thing, but it may not be as big a blowout as it appears to be heading for right now. If the Specter team can switch a good chunk of voters back over, he could have a fighting chance if the conservative vote is split, even, say 10% to Luksik.


Again, I'm not an expert on PA politics, and I am still reading a lot about Specter and this impending primary, but I think it's safe to say Specter will probably not leave the GOP. I haven't read anything pointing in that direction other than pundits saying he would have a much easier time winning reelection. I think Specter has a big enough ego that he could not back down from Toomey and would go on to face him in the primary even if it looks like he'll get his clock cleaned. The forces behind Toomey may be too much, as it appears as if the establishment may be lining up behind him, but we shall see. Things can change, and probably will before 2010. I'm still struggling myself to see who I want to win this thing. I'm not happy with Specter anymore, but I also don't think Toomey can win in the general in a left leaning state like PA, unless, of course, the GOP has a strong headwind in 2010. It's a choice of whether I want someone who will vote with the GOP 60-70% of the time or 20% of the time in a Democrat.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

2. He will not switch parties. The more I read about this race and the more I learn about Arlen, I believe he will go into the primary as a Republican.

That makes...one of you. 

There is still talk of him switching? I can't find anything on that except pundits saying he should switch if he wants to win reelection.

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If she was in a one on one with Specter, she'd be a contender. She won't have the money or big names behind her. If this was 2004 all over again, Toomey would lose comfortably. Toomey starts off with such an advantage that Luksik's candidacy probably won't mean much of anything. It doesn't help but it's not a disaster.
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I realize she won't be a huge factor, but she does fragment the support a bit that Toomey would otherwise have. Isn't she a single issue, pro-life candidate?

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Like Flyers said, that's not happening.  [/quote]

So no chance people switch back over to vote in the primary to save him? What is Specter's approval rating in PA?

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No. Lunar brought this up before, too, and here's why it is a terrible comparison:

Specter is a known enemy to conservatives here. He's never been their guy. This isn't like the Presidency. There aren't huge events that can make up for Specter's antics and overall ideology. He'd need a near total makeover for the environment to change.

He doesn't have the big guns backing him. He doesn't have Dems switching back to the GOP is huge numbers. He has big votes hanging around his neck. He has a very strong challenger that almost knocked him off in 2004 even though Specter had a lot of advantages then, too.[/quote]

I fully understand Specter has never been conservatives love. When I say environment, I mean that some of these GOP voters that switched to the Dems for the 08 primary may come back. I realize conservatives will never happily vote for Specter no matter what the environment is.

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He's not getting a big chunk back and it still wouldn't be enough. Take a look at the map I posted. See those insanely Pro Specter areas in the most conservative areas of the state? I'll give you two reasons and two reasons only for that: Bush and Santorum. Without them, Specter gets blown out. Sure, there aren't many votes in each county but have them each do a 180 turn and then add them up. [/quote]

He probably won't, but it isn't completely out of the question. I guess if those Specter voters are just as content with a Democrat in there as they are with Arlen, then you're probably right. You know more about the PA electorate than I do.

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Sorry but you're in no position to say that it's safe. People here can't even say what is a safe bet.[/quote]

Alright. We'll see. I'd wager he stays in the GOP.

 

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Of course his ego is a factor. Why would he choose a race that he's very likely to lose instead of a race where he'd win the nomination and then go on to beat him in the General? That way he goes two for two.[/quote]

Which is why I see him remaining a Republican. If he switches, he would look like he gave in to a challenge.

 

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This isn't the Presidency, a Senate General election or even your basic primary. There are many reasons why Specter can't just bank on things "changing." It's thirty years in the making.


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[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

That brings me to another question: do the Democrats even want Specter? Why would they want a long time Republican in their caucus when they could just nominate an electable lifelong Democrat?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

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Usually you are coherent, Torie.  This time, you are not.

Why? If the economy turns around, then it will likely be another Dem tilted year or neutral at best. If it is that type of environment, Toomey will not win. He needs a Republican environment to win this race in a state like Pennsylvania with his views.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

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Usually you are coherent, Torie.  This time, you are not.

Why? If the economy turns around, then it will likely be another Dem tilted year or neutral at best. If it is that type of environment, Toomey will not win. He needs a Republican environment to win this race in a state like Pennsylvania with his views.

If the economy turns around and things are "normal," there's also the chance that it will be your typical midterm - a slightly good year for the party out of power.

I'd normally agree, but if things turn around, the media will claim Obama waived his magic wand and fixed our nation. If the DOW rebounds to 10,000 or more and unemployment begins to decline, I can assure you our party will not have a favorable year in 2010.

The sad thing is that the media and the Democrats created the feeling among the masses that we were teetering on the brink of a depression before Obama took office.

It is almost like 9/11 in the sense that if Obama steers clear of this 'crisis' as Bush led us through 9/11, his party could pickup seats again in 2010.

I'm in no way saying it's a guarantee, as no one can predict the future, but recent developments in the economy have me thinking that we will turn the corner at the end of the year. If we do, and 2010 we begin to see economic growth, the Democrats will be seen as the ones who fixed it (although it has fixed itself before the stimulus has had any effect). This will mean more gains, not like 2006 or 2008, but modest ones for the Democrats. That would not bode well for Mr. Toomey if he's facing a credible Democrat who can say "my opponent would've voted against the stimulus that saved our economy." In fact, it will hurt the GOP everywhere. The American people will believe Obama fixed the economy like they believe the New Deal got us out of the depression. Sad times.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I find it amusing how you're one of the least Republican Republicans on this site but you talk like you're a slightly more intelligent Sean Hannity.

How so?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I find it amusing how you're one of the least Republican Republicans on this site but you talk like you're a slightly more intelligent Sean Hannity.

How so?

You're not really a Conservative Republican or a hysterical Neoconservative. You're pretty moderate and honestly could pass as a Democrat, yet you act fairly partisan. "The media" praising "Obama's magic wand" is a fairly partisan Republican statement in my opinion, not to mention engaging in neoconservative-esque nonsense that the New Deal was a failure, the stimulus is worthless, etc. You score and seem so moderate and yet you talk like Boehner.

Not that I'm insulting you, I'm just surprised that you use such Rovian terms for things.

I'm a moderate and I've criticized my party a lot, but I do have a partisan streak. That's no secret. Democrats just make me angrier because I disagree with them more so on economics, and those are the only issues I care about. I'm not a fan of a lot of the Democrats, but I am also not a fan of a lot of Republicans. I've also voted for a few Democrats in my life, and I've said if the economy turns around, I'll probably vote for Obama in 2012.

That said, I am just being honest. The media has been very favorable to Obama, and if the economy turns around, he will get credit for it, as will the Democratic Party. I don't believe his stimulus has had any chance to work yet, and all the good news of banks turning recently certainly hasn't been the work of the Obama administration.

I'm also being honest with Phil. If the economy turns around, he and the Democrats will get the credit and it will be another favorable year for them. The chances a conservative Republican such as Mr. Toomey wins a state like Pennsylvania in that kind of environment is extremely small.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm still having trouble believing some of this. Either of the following is at work.

1. I don't believe Specter won't switch parties. Surely if all of these things seem to be lining up against him, he would know that he can't win this primary, especially if his Philly base is eroding.

2. A lot of this feel good news for Toomey coming out of these sources isn't exactly true. Surely if the entire establishment was lining up against Specter, he would be more open to switching parties.

3. He's just playing this party switching as a game and switches at the last minute.

4. He actually believes the unions will switch their people for him and win the GOP primary that way.

I don't get it. Right now it seems like he's walking right into a landslide defeat, which would be humiliating to a senator who's been around as long as Specter has and one who has as big of an ego as he does.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

What if Mr. Toomey announces he isn't running?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Yeah. I don't think I could stand living with a group who'd rather have a Democrat over someone like Specter. Arlen's vote on the stimulus made me angry, but it's not like the Democrat would've voted against it if he/she was in office.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

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What don't you get about there being more to this?[/quote]

I get it. I get that conservatives in Pennsylvania feel that Specter has wronged them for over 30 years. I get that they are angry with him and would love to see him go down in a humiliating defeat. I get that they feel like he hasn't been a voice for them. If I'm missing something else, let me know..

From an outsiders perspective, I still don't understand it, but I'm not a Pennsylvania conservative. If I was in PA, I'd probably be a Specter supporter because he lines up more with my views than Toomey, but as I said before, I wouldn't care this time if Specter lost. I think PA needs someone new, but it will be difficult, but not impossible, to get Toomey elected in a state like PA.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/24/specter-to-oppose-cloture_n_178571.html

Specter will vote against cloture for the EFCA. And there goes the only group of people that still supported this idiot.

He's definitely not switching parties now... he probably would've been smart and voted for it and see if the unions would switch members for him. He won't win with the current makeup of the PA GOP now.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Specter will not win this primary. Unless he's planning a last minute switch, I don't understand his reasoning at all.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm not arguing that Toomey is better in terms of electability but here's some facts to consider next time anyone says that PA is a safe GOP seat with Arlen as the nominee - http://patownhall.com/article/4100

I'm not arguing that Specter is unbeatable in the general election, but he does carry that name recognition that neither Toomey nor Lusik has. It's sort of like Fritz Hollins getting reelected in SC term after term, or when we elected Strom Thurmond for another term when he was 93 and could barely function. It is just a tradition to vote for him.

That said, he's pretty much shot his electability with both sides by flirting with the Democrats and then coming out opposing card check. But he ain't winning the primary, so it's moot.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm not arguing that Specter is unbeatable in the general election, but he does carry that name recognition that neither Toomey nor Lusik has. It's sort of like Fritz Hollins getting reelected in SC term after term, or when we elected Strom Thurmond for another term when he was 93 and could barely function. It is just a tradition to vote for him.

And that tradition is getting a little too old for people.

The polls show that people on both sides are tired of him. Name recognition doesn't really matter but if it really does, it's a double edged sword here.

Exactly. If he somehow does win the primary, he will lose in the general because of the reasons you listed. I expect he'd also lose his union support because of card check. He's screwed either way. He's a fool for not switching.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/041509toomey-time-1.html
- Just a generic analysis of the bickering.

"Without Senator Specter's seat in the Senate, which Mr. Toomey would certainly lose, there would no longer be 41 Republican Senators to filibuster and stop the Democrats from passing card check, raising taxes, and implementing President Obama's massive spending plans," said Nicholas [Specter's Campaign Manager].




OHRLY?

LOL

Now that's funny!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'd be sheer comedy if Specter were to lose this race. These numbers are no surprise right now. The key for me will be how the numbers look after the unions learn that Specter is going to vote against card-check. Although, he may see that it would hurt him and decide to flip on that issue too.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Is Ridge actually considering running? If so, I'd suddenly become enthusiastic about this race again. He might actually have a chance at defeating Specter in the general if it isn't a big Republican year.

Would he be able to beat Toomey in a primary? Or is he deemed too moderate as well?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Specter backtracks on Coleman! LOL, this is getting ridiculous. Does this man not have any principles, or does he just make things up as he goes along?

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) reversed himself from comments he made in an interview in which he said he wanted Norm Coleman (R) to prevail in the disputed Minnesota Senate race against Al Franken (D), CQ Politics reports.

Said Specter: "In the swirl of moving from one caucus to another, I have to get used to my new teammates. I'm ordinarily pretty correct in what I say. I've made a career of being precise. I conclusively misspoke."

Asked who he's backing now in elections, Specter said, "I'm looking for more Democratic members. Nothing personal."

LOL

I'm almost beginning to feel sorry for him now. I would wager he loses the primary if he votes against card check and loses union support.

Also, it looks like he will be the junior senator now on most committees. Ole Arlen is starting over.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/34648-1.html

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm a hack because I'm talking about the dynamics of the race? Wow!

No, you're a hack for other reasons.  And, responding to the italics, I am a forum hack too - hence why I am replying in this thread.  That being said, the average voter won't care about Specter's opinions on the Minnesota Senate Race or other ridiculous things that you and I talk about.

I think the voters can appreciate Specter's dillema.  He's trying to serve the people of Pennsylvania, but all Washington DC cares about is the juvenile antics of politics.

I can't agree with you here. Specter is out to serve his own ass and ego, not the people of Pennsylvania. I hate to see moderates leave as much as you do, but Specter has really disappointed me recently.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'd laugh for days if Specter loses the primary, but like in 2004, enough people will line up behind him to give him the victory. He'll sweat it out though.