Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?

[IceSpear]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

[IceSpear]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

How do you think the runoff goes? 

I was toss up/tilt D before last night, now I'm toss up/tilt R. I'd say Rispone has the edge, but something as small as higher black turnout and/or a small slice of Abraham voters staying home could get it to a coin flip. On the other hand, I'm sure Trump is going to hold more rallies and impeachment is going to stay the dominant news story until the end of the race and drown out literally everything else, so I would not exactly be flabbergasted if the trend of Democrats improving in the runoff ends or even reverses.

[IceSpear]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

How do you think the runoff goes?  

I was toss up/tilt D before last night, now I'm toss up/tilt R. I'd say Rispone has the edge, but something as small as higher black turnout and/or a small slice of Abraham voters staying home could get it to a coin flip. On the other hand, I'm sure Trump is going to hold more rallies and impeachment is going to stay the dominant news story until the end of the race and drown out literally everything else, so I would not exactly be flabbergasted if the trend of Democrats improving in the runoff ends or even reverses.

What result were you expecting?

Well, there seemed to be a decent chance of JBE winning outright, even though a runoff was more likely. But if he didn't win outright, I expected him to get 48-49% and potentially for the combined Dem vote share (JBE + random black dude + fake Landrieu) to be hovering around 50%.