Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?
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  Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?
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Poll
Question: Rate the runoff between Edwards (D) and Rispone (R) on November 16th
#1
Likely Edwards
#2
Lean Edwards
#3
Toss-Up/Tilt Edwards
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt Rispone
#5
Lean Rispone
#6
Likely Rispone
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?  (Read 5242 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: October 13, 2019, 08:05:08 AM »

I don't know if this should be considered toss-up even though Republicans won last night's vote. But it's definitely not difficult to imagine Rispone winning. Sticking with Lean D, for now, may move to Toss-up/Tilt D later.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2019, 08:10:52 AM »

Edwards is still favored, Dems have won run-offs before; 2002 Landrieu v Terrell
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2019, 08:44:58 AM »

Likely R
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Nyvin
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2019, 08:45:54 AM »

Likely/Lean R.  More Likely than lean.

I don't really see how Edwards pulls off a win, but I won't say it's impossible.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2019, 08:46:59 AM »

Pure toss-up

If you believe that JBE will be able to win a significant numbers of Abraham’s voters then JBE is favoured (I’m doubtful about that), if you believe that JBE’s numbers in the primary are close to his ceiling, then he is the underdog.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2019, 08:56:28 AM »

Pure toss-up

If you believe that JBE will be able to win a significant numbers of Abraham’s voters then JBE is favoured (I’m doubtful about that), if you believe that JBE’s numbers in the primary are close to his ceiling, then he is the underdog.

Realistically JBE isn't going to be winning that many voters, it's going to be a question of turnout. This is a French style runoff, you should know that voters deciding to sit on their ass in round two is a common occurrence. Abraham pulled in some voters from his congressional district who would only be voting in off year elections because it's their rep, for instance. Similarly, If someone pulls consistently ahead in polls, then don't count out their voter just throwing in the towel.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2019, 09:01:19 AM »

I feel like he narrowly squeaks it out - Dems seem to usually do better in the runoff than in the primary. If he'd got below 45% it would have been very concerning for him.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2019, 09:14:26 AM »

I feel like he narrowly squeaks it out - Dems seem to usually do better in the runoff than in the primary. If he'd got below 45% it would have been very concerning for him.

It depends, in 2014 democrats did worse in the runoff than in the primary.
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2019, 09:15:36 AM »

I’m really not sure, I’d like to see some polls first. For now, I’m going to go with Tilt R. It’s true that Edwards could eke out a win with a tiny percentage of Abraham voters voting for him or even staying home, but based on what we saw last night, that isn’t looking incredibly likely.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2019, 09:30:39 AM »

Lean R

It won't take that many crossover votes for Edwards to win this time compared to last time, and there may be Abraham voters that sit out.

However, there're the factors of Trump rallies and general polarization at play too. Also Rispone is not currently some seriously flawed candidate.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2019, 09:39:37 AM »

After thinking through this a little more, I'm changing to toss-up (but still tilts D)
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2019, 09:41:29 AM »

After thinking through this a little more, I'm changing to toss-up (but still tilts D)
After republicans just won the combined vote 52-47, how do you think JBE can still win, especially considering Rispone should have a photo finish?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2019, 09:43:43 AM »

After thinking through this a little more, I'm changing to toss-up (but still tilts D)
After republicans just won the combined vote 52-47, how do you think JBE can still win, especially considering Rispone should have a photo finish?

So far polls have shown JBE doing better in the runoff (yes, I realize they were off, but even factoring that in) and I don't think 100% or maybe even 90% of Abraham's voters are going to be committed enough to vote for Rispone after a somewhat harsh intraparty battle.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2019, 10:01:42 AM »

For now, Tossup. This race could go either way.
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windjammer
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2019, 10:16:39 AM »

It's a toss up.


I don't understand the euphoria honestly. The polls weren't off.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2019, 10:24:31 AM »

Toss up to tilt D
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2019, 10:26:03 AM »

It's a toss up.


I don't understand the euphoria honestly. The polls weren't off.

They accurately predicted JBE's percentage. People are pessimistic because 100% of the undecideds went to the Republicans.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2019, 10:26:08 AM »

Im going to go with tossup, though this rating would easily change as polls start to come in.

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2019, 10:58:24 AM »

Lean R
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windjammer
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2019, 10:58:46 AM »

It's a toss up.


I don't understand the euphoria honestly. The polls weren't off.

They accurately predicted JBE's percentage. People are pessimistic because 100% of the undecideds went to the Republicans.
I mean, that was obvious undecided were going to be more republican as there were two main candidates.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2019, 11:13:50 AM »

Toss up / Tilt JBE

The closing couple weeks were very bad for JBE in terms of impeachment being the frontline news. I think with one opponent to focus on and probably a more favorable environment (plus the fact Dems generally do better in the runoff anyway) JBE will squeak by with 50-51%. However, I can’t discount the fact that Rispone has been surging throughout the campaign and has considerable personal resources at his disposal, not to mention Trump’s backing.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2019, 11:17:31 AM »

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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2019, 11:18:57 AM »

I wish the GOP nominated someone who was to the left of Edwards on abortion as that would guarantee this race would be won by Edwards
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Xing
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2019, 11:38:55 AM »

I wish the GOP nominated someone who was to the left of Edwards on abortion as that would guarantee this race would be won by Edwards

Unless said GOP candidate also opposed Trump, nothing would be different. This result should lay to rest the idea that hoards of Republicans would be open to voting for a Democrat if only Democrats were pro-life.
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Gracile
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« Reply #24 on: October 13, 2019, 11:45:36 AM »

It's a pure tossup, though I'd maybe give Rispone the slight edge if he can consolidate the Republican vote/get sufficiently high turnout where he needs to.
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