NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[IceSpear]

Dems up double digits in CA-49? but muh diane harkey's internals said she was ahead muh, and issa won in 2016, toss up/tilt r

[IceSpear]

Still early (just over 200 responses) but my goodness, Davids seems to be running away with KS-03.

I wonder if Kobach on the ballot could be hurting him, as he's going to lose this district bigly even if he wins overall. Then again, Yoder was already overrated to begin with.

[IceSpear]

Still early (just over 200 responses) but my goodness, Davids seems to be running away with KS-03.

Yeah, this is impressive (if it holds up even with anything remotely close to the current lead). Remember that this was only a narrow Clinton district, not like MN-03 or CO-06. If Dems are doing this well here, it definitely also is good news for other Suburban district, and also should be good news for NE-02, which is pretty nearby and has some similarities.

It would be really nice to get a poll of NE-02 in particular.

Are you that curious whether Weak Candidate Kara Eastman™ loses by 10 or 20 or 50 points? After all, the same people who told me PA-17 was a pure toss up told me she was a weak candidate, so there's no way they can be wrong.

[IceSpear]

Still early (just over 200 responses) but my goodness, Davids seems to be running away with KS-03.

Yeah, this is impressive (if it holds up even with anything remotely close to the current lead). Remember that this was only a narrow Clinton district, not like MN-03 or CO-06. If Dems are doing this well here, it definitely also is good news for other Suburban district, and also should be good news for NE-02, which is pretty nearby and has some similarities.

It would be really nice to get a poll of NE-02 in particular.

Are you that curious whether Weak Candidate Kara Eastman™ loses by 10 or 20 or 50 points? After all, the same people who told me PA-17 was a pure toss up told me she was a weak candidate, so there's no way they can be wrong.

It still boggles my mind how many people rushed to move NE-02 to Lean R because Eastman is a "weak candidate." I mean, we joke about how people think candidate quality matters more than it does, but that was one of the biggest facepalm moments of the cycle.

Yeah, almost all of the criticisms applied to Eastman could be applied to Davids as well, except for beating the DCCC's chosen retread who already lost the district once. As Rick Perry would say: "Oops"

[IceSpear]

How is unelectable weak joker Davids up by 10 while god-tier #populist Ojeda ended up down 8? Atlas told me that WV-03 is going to flip and that KS-03 is Lean/Likely R

Well, Yoder and Ojeda are men while Davids and Miller are women, you see. Just like how Iron Deadbeat Jailbird is more likely to win than Donna Shalala.

[IceSpear]

Unbeatable moderate titan Mimi Walters who votes with Trump only 99% of the time is somehow down 10 in this very dishonest poll by the New York Times.

It's her fault for not energizing the base and catering to moderate heroes instead. Should've voted with him 100% of the time.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1043448772280438784?s=21

So they've been "hearing how bad his numbers are for months", yet keep it as a toss up all that time? Yet they have no problem moving other districts to lean R based on internals. Or moving PA-01 to lean R based on a public poll showing the Republican incumbent up 1 point...

[IceSpear]

how tf is andy kim leading by so much his lead is almost beyond the moe

Don’t take this poll seriously until we reach at least 150 people. We’re at 90.

[IceSpear]

I bet if Bacon ends up leading by even a single point the pundits will use it to justify their lean R rating. "Muh Brad Ashford would be leading by 20!"

[IceSpear]

All completed polls so far:


IA-01: D+14
CO-06: D+11
CA-49: D+10
MN-03: D+9
MN-08: D+1
KS-02: D+1
NM-02: D+1
CA-48: D+<1
KY-06: R+<1
IL-06: R+1
IL-12: R+1
NJ-07: R+1
CA-25: R+2
FL-26: R+3
TX-07: R+3
VA-07: R+4
ME-02: R+5
WI-01: R+6
TX-23: R+7
WV-03: R+8


So far, by my amazing statistical prediction model that exclusively uses NYT/Siena polls, dems have gained 8 house seats.

Dems are doing the worst of any poll in rural "WWC" #populist WV-03 even with Unbeatable Titan Richard Ojeda? How is this possible?!

And Unbeatable Titan Iron Deadbeat Jailbird is doing the third worst?! HOW?! HE'S SO #POPULIST . And he's clearly far more likely to win than Weak Candidate Donna Shalala™!

[IceSpear]

and the Congressional race seems to be tracking pretty closely with Trump's approval numbers (currently those are 46% approve, 44% disapprove).

Are you implying that insignificant factors such as Trump's approval rating matter more than candidate quality?

Don't be silly. Everyone knows a Strong R Candidate™ would beat a Weak D Candidate™ in a D+30 district, and vice versa. It's all about Candidate Quality

Does anyone know if Randy Naugebauer is facing a strong candidate? If so I might rate it as more likely to flip than FL-27 imo tbh imho.

[IceSpear]

CA-49 Is completed. 507 respondents-

Levin (D) 51%  36/12% +24 Favorable Rating
Harkey (R) 41%   27/18% +9 Favorable Rating

Trump approval: 41/55% (-14)

GCB: D+12

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But I thought Dems needed to run against Pelosi to win because of muh Pelosi ads!

[IceSpear]

81 calls made, 2 people have spoken, and Schrier at 100%. 

Rossi will surge once they call a pundit.

[IceSpear]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

Lol. Rossi couldn't even win the jungle primary when his name recognition advantage was at its peak. As xingkerui said, he's going to get Gillespie'd.

[IceSpear]

LOL, and people thought nominating Eastman was a good idea...

a) We're not even at 200 people
b) Do you have any evidence that the only Democratic incumbent to lose in 2016 would've won either?

If it is true that NE-02 really likes Don Bacon and also wants Republicans to keep the House, as the poll currently shows, then he wasn't going to lose regardless of the candidate.

[IceSpear]

The NJ-03 poll is definitely pretty wild, especially since this was supposed to be the second safest seat for the GOP in NJ. I'd actually be interested in seeing an NJ-04 poll as well. I highly doubt Smith could actually lose, but if the NJ-03 poll is even remotely accurate, he could be in for a closer shave than people expect.

[IceSpear]

Anyway, how are Dems doing so well in all these suburban districts like NJ-03, CA-45, PA-07, KS-03, CA-49, CO-06, and MN-03? Politician and Zaybay told me the road to a House majority ran through rural whites!

[IceSpear]

Anyway, how are Dems doing so well in all these suburban districts like NJ-03, CA-45, PA-07, KS-03, CA-49, CO-06, and MN-03? Politician and Zaybay told me the road to a House majority ran through rural whites!

Cant even quote me correctly, eh? I said that the road to the Electoral College laid through rural whites, not the house. Sorry to say, but your not gonna win MI, WI, and PA if you lose support from rural whites, unless you really think the Ds are taking NC, GA, and AZ.

Hillary herself would've won all those states if she just did a smidgen better in the suburbs and/or urban areas, which she would have if not for the Comey letter.

[IceSpear]

I am pleasantly surprised by CA 45th results thus far. Still gonna keep it at tilt R, especially because of primary results, but it is looking a little better now.

Bagel: "I'm keeping CA-45 at tilt R because of the primary results."
Bagel: "I'm keeping WA-08 at tilt R despite the primary results."

[IceSpear]

The results in WA-08 were very wonky earlier, much too R friendly, but that's often the result of a small sample size. Rossi's down to just +2 now, and could easily fall behind again tomorrow. The Trump approval ratings are still probably a little R friendly, and I find repealing and replacing Obamacare to be at +10 a little hard to believe as well. These polls are not flawless, and some results have been downright bizarre, but most of them are a good ballpark estimate. Rossi winning would not make any sense in a good Democratic year, but I doubt he'll lose by double digits either.

The jungle primary was D+3, so it doesn't really surprise me that this poll shows a close race so far. But it's really hard to see Rossi actually winning unless Republicans outperform expectations across the board. Democrats tend to outperform the jungle primary results far more often than Republicans do.

[IceSpear]

Go ahead and stick a fork in Rossi if he can't even manage a lead in a sample where he has 25% higher name recognition.

[IceSpear]

I really want to see them do a FL-27 poll so we can confirm that the race is as close as the two internals indicated. CA-39, FL-7, MI-11, and one of the competitive New York districts (Tenney or Faso) would also be nice.

I tweeted Nate asking for them to poll FL-27. Would be nice to see how candidate quality can affect this race.

Agreed. Candidate quality is probably making a big difference for the GOP in CA-39, and FL-27 could tell a similar story.

IceSpear told me candidate quality doesn't matter in wave years and that CA-39 is Leaning D and FL-27 is Titanium D.

FL-27 is indeed titanium D. But I've always had CA-39 as a toss up. Though lean R might be more fitting at this point.

[IceSpear]

I voted IA-04 so people stop entertaining the idea of Steve King losing.

[IceSpear]

I voted for VA-10 even though it seems like a foregone conclusion. All of the other new races (except PA-17) seem like ridiculous reaches for the Dems, and I don't think they should re-do polls just yet. I'd be fine with PA-17, though.

PA-17 is the most foregone conclusion of them all considering Rothfus has already been triaged and basically everyone thinks/knows Lamb is up double digits.

[IceSpear]

How is VA-02 a close race? Atlas told me it was safe D because of some signature forging scandal that nobody cares about besides Dem hacks. Just like Collins and Hunter were doomed because Republican voters clearly care so much about scandals.

And as Politician says, Candidate Quality™ is all that matters!

As IceSpear says (and Criticism of IceSpear is not allowed by the Atlas thought police) candidate quality is 100% irrevelant in wave years.

How is Valadao winning in CA-21? The national environment, Trump's approval rating, and the district's partisan Lean determine everything. How is Curbelo doing so well? How is Young Kim winning in a Clinton +9 SUBURBAN SEAT where EDUCATED SUBURBAN WOMEN hate Trump?

This is a polite request that the two of you knock it off, as you are greatly lowering the signal/noise ratio in this thread.

It's the NYT live poll thread. That ratio has already been on life support from the start.