Toss up, since unlike many people here (with some exceptions...shout out to xingkerui and MT Treasurer
) I realize Nevada isn't a far right state that will always vote much more Republican than the nation as a whole.
I gave Hillary about an 80% chance of winning, but that was assuming she'd win NV relatively comfortably (by at least 5 points.) This would signal she's doing worse than I expected, which would mean Trump is probably winning NC/FL/NE-02/ME-02 (I already had him winning the Romney states + IA/OH), and that PA/WI/NH are at risk as well. I didn't think MI was in any danger of flipping. I'd still bet on Hillary if forced to choose though.
Poll
