Be honest: It's two weeks before the 2016 election, and you see the NV result...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A wizard shows you the Nevada result in his crystal ball:

Hillary Clinton   539,260    47.92%
Donald J. Trump   512,058    45.50%
Gary Johnson   37,384    3.32%
None of these Candidates   28,863    2.56%

[Politician]

I would assume she would win, as she was up in WI/MI/PA and behind in Nevada, so if she wins NV, she would (assumingly) be strongly favored.

[Mr. Smith]

She should have it, but I need to see New Hampshire and Colorado first.  If those flip, it's over, regardless of WI/MI/PA.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

She should have it, but I need to see New Hampshire and Colorado first.  If those flip, it's over, regardless of WI/MI/PA.

I recall feeling it was unlikely Clinton would win NV and lose CO.  The polls seemed to indicate she had CO pretty well wrapped up, while being in trouble in NV.

But then, polls seemed to indicate she had WI pretty well wrapped up, too.

[Xing]

I'd be pretty sure she was going to lose. The idea some people had that PA was sure to vote far to the left of NV was pretty funny. If that's the best a Democrat can do in NV, they're not having a good night.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'd be pretty sure she was going to lose. The idea some people had that PA was sure to vote far to the left of NV was pretty funny. If that's the best a Democrat can do in NV, they're not having a good night.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[Xing]

I'd be pretty sure she was going to lose. The idea some people had that PA was sure to vote far to the left of NV was pretty funny. If that's the best a Democrat can do in NV, they're not having a good night.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

And that forecast proved to be wrong, since the polls underestimated Trump in most states, but overestimated him in Nevada (which is one of the few things I consistently got right in 2016.)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd figure that Nevada might be one of the few states where Hillary would outperform the polls, so that wouldn't really increase the odds I had of her winning. I'm not sure it would hurt her enough to move it to tossup, though.

[IceSpear]

Toss up, since unlike many people here (with some exceptions...shout out to xingkerui and MT Treasurer ) I realize Nevada isn't a far right state that will always vote much more Republican than the nation as a whole.

I gave Hillary about an 80% chance of winning, but that was assuming she'd win NV relatively comfortably (by at least 5 points.) This would signal she's doing worse than I expected, which would mean Trump is probably winning NC/FL/NE-02/ME-02 (I already had him winning the Romney states + IA/OH), and that PA/WI/NH are at risk as well. I didn't think MI was in any danger of flipping. I'd still bet on Hillary if forced to choose though.

[Izzyeviel]

I'd be worried that voters weren't breaking for the 3rd parties - big indication that the polls are wrong.

[Annatar]

Based off the Nevada result I would consider the election a toss-up, the 4.3% shift in Nevada towards Trump compared to Romney would indicate that Florida and Ohio are basically going GOP and states like  NH, IA, CO, VA and PA are likely in play, again I would have assumed a more uniform swing occurring then what actually occurred.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Pure toss-up. Seeing the Colorado result would have worried me a hell of a lot more.

[Beet]

It would confirm me in a belief that Trump was going to win. I would have naively (I use that word in a literal, non-judgmental sense here) applied the 2012-2016 Nevada swing to a uniform national swing and come up with Trump winning the popular vote by 0.4%. Based on that, I would predict a Trump win and bet heavily on that basis.

[Bidenworth2020]

do I have a county map?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

do I have a county map?

Sure.

[Bidenworth2020]

do I have a county map?

Sure.

then I'd say Hillary won. I was planning to look at wash all night and I thought it would be a very good bellwether of the election.

[Hydera]

Hillary only winning by 2.5% in a state with a high hispanic population would be a sign that she underwhelmed.

[J. J.]

2 weeks out and it not tightening, I would say that Clinton would win.  If Fox had not declared WI before NV, I would have said a Clinton victory.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is a useful reference:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=298852.0

Polling error is obviously not uniform.