For States That Got 1 Dem & 1 GOP Senator Each, How Would They Do Head To Head?

[IceSpear]

A lot of these would depend on the political environment, so for the purposes of this thread I'll just assume it's neutral.

CO: 49-47 Bennet
FL: 50-48 Nelson
IN: 55-45 Young
ME: 60-40 Collins
MO: 54-46 Blunt
MT: 48-47 Daines
NV: 50-45 Cortez Masto
ND: 59-41 Hoeven
OH: 51-47 Portman
PA: 51-48 Casey
WV: 63-37 Capito
WI: 49-48 Baldwin

[IceSpear]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

Considering Toomey only narrowly pulled it out against McGinty (not exactly an A list candidate as I'm sure we can all agree), I'm not sure why anyone would think he'd beat Casey unless you're assuming an R wave. He did narrowly beat Sestak who was a strong candidate, but that was an R wave year. If anyone here was suggesting he'd get thumped I'd agree with you.

Brown would beat Portman, I think.

His margin against utterly terrible candidate Josh Mandel in 2012 left much to be desired. And that was in an amazing year for Senate Democrats. As opposed to Portman who won both of his races in gigantic landslides (I just realized that Strickland did even worse than Lee f'ing Fisher...good lord.) I guess we'll see how he does this year. If Mandel of all people keeps it close again (or, god forbid, wins) you'd be hard pressed to argue that he'd beat Portman.

Re: NV, I'm not sure why some people have it so close. Heck was a much stronger candidate than Heller could ever be, and 2016 wasn't exactly a great for the Democrats.

Not even gonna touch all the posts showing Manchin beating Capito...lol.

[IceSpear]

Definitely just checked in to see IceSpear's WV prediction, LOL.

It might be a bit generous to Manchin honestly, considering how popular Capito is. When he gets Blanched in a year by a Republican far less popular than Capito I'll look prescient.

[IceSpear]

10 years and two Senate election victories later and people still find someway to underestimate Pat Toomey.

Considering Toomey only narrowly pulled it out against McGinty (not exactly an A list candidate as I'm sure we can all agree), I'm not sure why anyone would think he'd beat Casey unless you're assuming an R wave. He did narrowly beat Sestak who was a strong candidate, but that was an R wave year. If anyone here was suggesting he'd get thumped I'd agree with you.

Brown would beat Portman, I think.

His margin against utterly terrible candidate Josh Mandel in 2012 left much to be desired. And that was in an amazing year for Senate Democrats. As opposed to Portman who won both of his races in gigantic landslides (I just realized that Strickland did even worse than Lee f'ing Fisher...good lord.) I guess we'll see how he does this year. If Mandel of all people keeps it close again (or, god forbid, wins) you'd be hard pressed to argue that he'd beat Portman.

Re: NV, I'm not sure why some people have it so close. Heck was a much stronger candidate than Heller could ever be, and 2016 wasn't exactly a great for the Democrats.

Not even gonna touch all the posts showing Manchin beating Capito...lol.

Portman hasn't faced a strong opponent yet.

Remember back when Strickland was seen as a strong candidate? Lol, good times. But yeah, Brown's margin against Mandel in 2012 was more telling I think. Mandel was a weaker candidate than Strickland (and possibly even Fisher) and still "only" lost by 6 in a good year for Dems.

[IceSpear]

The Republicans would win all races easily except PA and CO.

Why NV?